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reporter of china business network: yang qifei editor of china business network: yang huan

image source: photo network 502353240

the power rationing in guangzhou is about to hit.

on september 20, the feedback on the "guangzhou electric bicycle management regulations (draft amendment·draft for soliciting opinions)" was closed. the provisions such as "total quantity control can be implemented on electric bicycles" and "not developing internet rental electric bicycles" once sparked hot discussions.

image source: guangzhou people's congress official website

it has been nearly two years since guangzhou first solicited public opinions at the end of november 2022. according to previous reports, the "guangzhou electric bicycle management regulations" will be reviewed and voted on for the third time this month.

in fact, as early as 2006, guangzhou issued a "ban on electric bicycles" to prohibit electric bicycles from taking to the road throughout the city. however, with the development of emerging industries such as instant delivery and the continuous evolution of urban transportation, electric bicycles have been wavering between being "banned" and not being "banned". until recent years, cities such as shanghai and shenzhen have introduced relevant local legislation, but guangzhou has been slow to follow suit.

"electric chicken" is the common name for electric bicycles in guangzhou. the love-hate relationship with "electric chicken" is prevalent in the streets and alleys of guangzhou. according to statistics, as of july this year, the number of electric bicycles in guangzhou exceeded 6 million, of which more than 5 million were registered. in guangzhou's numerous professional markets and urban villages, electric bicycles are a basic means of transportation and an important livelihood guarantee, but they also bring a lot of safety hazards and travel conflicts.

in a sense, the difficulty of guangzhou's "power restriction" lies in the fact that it condenses the city's balancing problems in recent years regarding road planning, industrial development and citizens' lives. will the "power restriction" that is about to take effect lead to an overall transformation of the city?

car

how much do guangzhou people love electric bicycles?

looking at the megacities that have released relevant data, except for shanghai, where the number of electric bicycles has exceeded 10 million, guangzhou has reached 6 million, shenzhen is slightly behind with 5.5 million, and chengdu has over 4 million.

in recent years, the attraction of "electric bicycles" to guangzhou has increased instead of decreased. the "2023 guangzhou transportation development annual report" shows that the average daily trip volume of electric bicycles in guangzhou in 2023 is 6.85 million, a year-on-year increase of 14% and a 72% increase compared to 2019. among them, the average daily trip volume of electric bicycles in the central urban area is 3.39 million, an increase of 149% compared to 2019.

image source: guangzhou daily

in comparison, the motorization share of public transportation in the central urban area has dropped from 61% in 2019 to 45% in 2023. the report analyzed that the rapid growth of electric bicycles and new energy vehicles in recent years has had a great impact on public transportation. the average door-to-door travel speed of electric bicycles is 12.3 kilometers per hour, while that of conventional buses is 11.3 kilometers per hour. it has obvious advantages in travel within five kilometers and is the third largest mode of transportation after walking and cars.

in fact, in the "game" between different modes of transportation, electric bicycles seem to have the upper hand in guangzhou.

another example is shared bikes.

in 2022, guangzhou conducted a new round of assessment on the number of shared bicycles in place, and ultimately determined that the number would be 450,000-650,000 in the entire city and 300,000-400,000 in the six central districts. this is not only less than the previous round of data (600,000-800,000 in the entire city and 400,000-500,000 in the central urban area), but is also significantly lower than some megacities. for example, data shows that the total number of shared bicycles in chengdu has reached 990,000, and the total number of bicycles in shanghai is also controlled at around 900,000.

in this regard, the official explanation is that electric bicycles and internet rental bicycles are both non-motor vehicles, and there is competition and substitution in usage demand in riding and parking resources, so the total amount assessment scale is reduced.

however, if guangzhou adopts tough power ban measures like other cities, it may bring some unexpected impacts.

in guangzhou, urban villages are an unavoidable proposition. not only do they accommodate 1/3 of the city's permanent population, but the narrow streets and alleys make electric bicycles a "must-have". riding an "electric chicken" to go out for groceries and shopping, picking up children, and even delivering goods are almost everywhere in production and life scenes. but at the same time, the crowded living environment and old charging facilities of the urban villages themselves have greatly increased the safety risks of electric bicycles.

in may this year, after a sudden fire, sanyuanli village in guangzhou became the first urban village in the city to ban the parking of electric bicycles. according to its regulations, all electric bicycles and five types of vehicles are not allowed to enter the village for parking. electric bicycles for delivering daily necessities such as take-out, express delivery, gas, grain and oil are allowed to register and pass for a limited time from 6:00 to 24:00 every day, and can stop and go.

even though the ban was limited to such a limited scope, it still triggered a lot of doubts. after the new regulations were implemented, some people claimed that sanyuanli village ushered in a "rental withdrawal wave", while others said that most stalls could no longer do business. local media launched an investigation and pointed out that the "rental withdrawal wave" was not accurate, but also pointed out that the decline in traffic caused by the "power ban" brought difficulties to the business of shops and caused practical difficulties for residents' lives, and the existing policies still needed to be adjusted in a targeted manner.

road

on the other side of the scale, voices supporting a ban on electricity have never stopped.

last month, a topic titled “the surge in orthopedic patients in guangzhou is related to electric bicycles” was published onweibohot search. guangzhou has relaxed the policy for electric bicycles to be allowed on the road since november 2021, but this has resulted in the consequence that "the more electric bicycles there are, the more prosperous the orthopedics industry is."

data shows that traffic accident injuries caused by electric bicycles in guangzhou generally account for 60%-80% of the number of trauma and orthopedic patients in major hospitals; related traffic accidents cause 65% of serious traffic accident injuries received by emergency departments and cause 75% of traffic accident deaths.

image source: weibo screenshot

in this regard, many people have turned their attention to the increasing number of illegal and irregular behaviors. data shows that in 2021, guangzhou investigated and dealt with 1.12 million electric bicycle traffic violations, a year-on-year increase of 169%. by 2022, the number rose to more than 1.6 million. last year, the number of traffic accidents involving electric bicycles rose again by 63%. running red lights, driving in the wrong direction, and occupying the road are common, which inevitably leads to scratches and even car accidents.

but cyclists aren't the whole problem.

at present, electric bicycles that meet national regulations are included in the management of non-motor vehicles and are mainly driven on non-motor vehicle lanes. as one of the earliest developed cities in china, guangzhou's urban planning refers to the road planning of hong kong and macao. in many sections of the old city, there is no space for non-motor vehicles, so electric bicycles have to occupy the road space of motor vehicles or pedestrians.

image source: photo network 501632065

comparing the non-motorized vehicle lane installation rates on main and secondary roads in the four first-tier cities, beijing and shanghai are 95% and 90% respectively, while guangzhou is only 32% and shenzhen is only 28%.

even if there are non-motorized vehicle lanes, most of them are relatively narrow. according to a paper published in 2021 by bai yu of guangzhou transportation research institute co., ltd., in the central urban area of ​​guangzhou, 84% of the non-motorized vehicle lanes on the main and secondary roads are less than 2.5 meters wide, while according to the "urban integrated transportation system planning standards", "the minimum width of bicycle lanes should not be less than 2.5 meters."

in 2019, zhang runpeng, then deputy director of the urban planning and planning institute of the guangzhou transportation planning institute, pointed out in a report on shared bicycles in guangzhou that the continuity problems of guangzhou’s current slow-moving system are relatively prominent, and the connection between bicycle lanes is not good enough.

he pointed out that many problems can be solved by improving the "roads". for example, setting up bicycle tunnels can solve the problem of crossing the road. for example, more signs and markings should be added, isolation facilities should be improved, and so on.

positive guidance rather than negative warnings is also more suitable for the management of electric bicycles. a practical situation that has been repeatedly mentioned is that in the face of the large number of electric bicycles in guangzhou, the cost of violating the law by enforcing the law with non-motor vehicle standards is low, and the limited police force is difficult to cope with.

another similar problem is that recently, as guangzhou enters the hot summer and rainy season, electric bicycles have been equipped with awnings to provide shade and shelter from the rain, but there have been reports of pedestrians being scratched. in the special rectification campaign carried out by the local traffic police, the rectification efforts on modified vehicles have also been stepped up.

in this regard, zhang runpeng proposed a solution at the time: on the basis of solving the continuity problem, the quality can be further improved. in particular, in view of the hot and rainy characteristics of southern cities, the construction of "all-weather bicycle lanes" demonstration sections can be carried out in guangzhou, and lanes that can shelter from rain and sun can be developed.

city

in other words, for guangzhou, a major city for electric bicycles, "power restrictions" are not the only way out, nor may they be the best way out.

as a model for guangzhou's road planning, why does hong kong, which also lacks non-motorized vehicle lanes, not have the problem of "electric bicycles surrounding the city"? in addition to the mountainous conditions of hong kong itself, a reason mentioned by many people is that hong kong has a complete public transportation system and a "public transportation first" urban development concept, which enables 90% of travel to be completed by public transportation.

in contrast, in guangzhou, ma jingke, deputy chairman of the guangzhou committee of the jiusan society and vice chairman of the huangpu district cppcc, pointed out that the failure of coordinated development of rail transit and conventional public transportation, the low level of public transportation integration, and the failure of bus stations to be integrated with communities or commercial office buildings have all led to a decline in the attractiveness of public transportation and the diversion of passengers to electric bicycles and other means.

of course, this does not mean that guangzhou must learn from the hong kong model. huang lianghui, then vice president of the china urban competitiveness research association, once analyzed that the "tod" development model that hong kong is admired by the outside world should actually be "dot". public transport priority is a strategy that hong kong has to adopt under the intensive development of land, and the dense living environment in turn creates a rich source of customers for public transport to survive. therefore, hong kong's characteristics are not worth emulating by other cities in china.

but there is at least one thing in which electric bicycles are similar to guangzhou and buses are similar to hong kong: they are both related to the overall development path of the city.

in 2014, when the "guangzhou non-motor vehicle and motorcycle management regulations (draft for comments)" proposed to ban "five types of vehicles" from the road, it caused a heated discussion in the zhongda textile circle at the time. at that time, the cloth delivery workers in the zhongda cloth market made their livings almost all by modified electric vehicles or tricycles, and voices about "returning to the hometown and quitting the job" began to appear. subsequently, every time the relevant policies were introduced, they almost always caused a shock to the local area.

image source: photo network 501253486

now, just like the cloth delivery workers who left at that time, zhongda textile circle is also facing the fate of relocation. in february last year, guangqing textile park in qingyuan, one of its relocation destinations, started recruiting, and the reward for joining was an electric bicycle per person.

ma liang, a professor at the school of public administration of renmin university of china, believes that simple and rough management is the fastest and most effective, but it also causes the most damage to the city's life and has the strongest side effects. allowing electric vehicles on the road reflects the inclusiveness of a city, embodies the city's sense of fairness, and highlights the refinement of a city.

for example, he pointed out that in the past, electric vehicles had no license plates and no standards, which brought difficulties to urban traffic control. this is related to the fact that electric vehicles have no "identity" and that riders do not need management similar to "driving license test". however, unifying the standards for electric vehicles and licensing them can completely solve many problems currently facing urban traffic.

in fact, hong kong is also studying the "identity" of electric bicycles. last year, li yaopei, a member of the hong kong transport department's research team and chairman of the automobile association, revealed that handrail electric scooters and electric bicycles will be legalized, and the relevant vehicles will be subject to safety verification and speed limit requirements.

as the head of the guangzhou public security bureau said at a meeting with guangzhou municipal people's congress representatives last year, the restriction on electric bicycles affects thousands of households and must be handled with extreme caution.

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