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at this point, the china-u.s. economic working group held a meeting.

2024-09-21

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from september 19 to 20, the china-us economic working group held its fifth meeting in beijing.

at the same time as the china-us economic working group held a meeting, the us federal reserve announced that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, marking the first rate cut in four years.

in the face of new situations and changes in the economic field, what important topics were discussed at this meeting of the china-us economic working group, and how do we understand the signals conveyed therein?

mr. tan learned that this working group meeting,the chinese side was led by vice minister of finance liao min, and officials from the ministry of finance, national development and reform commission, ministry of industry and information technology, ministry of commerce, and people's bank of china attended the meeting.

the u.s. side is led by deputy treasury secretary jean-claude schumberg, with participation mainly from officials from the treasury department and the federal reserve.

it can be seen that economic-related departments from both china and the united states basically attended the meeting.

such communications have occurred five times in less than a year.

on september 22 last year, in order to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, the heads of china and the united states' economic and trade relations jointly promoted the establishment of the china-us economic working group, a working mechanism in the economic field, under the leadership of deputy ministerial officials of the two countries' finance ministries.

mr. tan noted thatin-depthit is a word that is almost always mentioned in the press releases of these working group meetings.

each in-depth communication revolves around three main topics:the first is the macroeconomic situation of the two countries, the second is the global economic challenges, and the third is the specific concerns of both sides.

the economic situation of china and the united states is related to the development of both countries and the world.

this can be seen from the timing of the economic working group meeting.

before the first china-u.s. economic working group meeting, unctad warned of global economic stagnation."macroeconomic situation and policies in both countries and worldwide"communicated.

this meeting was the first sino-us economic working group meeting held after the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee. tan zhu learned that at the meeting, the chinese side introduced the relevant arrangements of the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee on further deepening reform in an all-round way, focusing oncultivate a complete domestic demand system and deepen high-level opening uprelevant reform measures.

the economic departments of china and the united states communicate regularly and frequently, which is a direct reflection of the effective implementation of the consensus reached by the chinese and american heads of state during their meeting in san francisco. it also sends a positive signal to the outside world of stabilizing china-us economic relations.

not long ago, president xi jinping proposed the "four unchanged" when meeting with us president's national security advisor sullivan who was visiting china:china's goal of being committed to the stable, healthy and sustainable development of china-us relations has not changed. the principle of handling china-us relations in accordance with mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation has not changed. china's position of firmly safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development interests has not changed. china's efforts to continue the traditional friendship between the chinese and american people have not changed.this is china's most authoritative statement on china-u.s. relations.

specifically on the economic and trade relations, he lifeng, vice premier of the state council and the chinese leader of china-us economic and trade, also met with the us delegation after the economic working group meeting on september 20. he lifeng said that china and the united states should implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state in the san francisco meeting and the phone call in april this year, maintain communication and exchanges in the economic field, strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, properly handle each other's concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and promote the stable and healthy development of china-us economic relations.

during the meeting, the us delegation also conveyed a message from us treasury secretary janet yellen, saying that "the us is willing to maintain communication with china in the economic field and develop a healthy sino-us economic relationship." this in itself reflects that the leaders of china and the us economic and trade relations attach great importance to this communication channel.

china has always been committed to stabilizing and developing china-us economic and trade relations on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and its rational and pragmatic attitude has remained unchanged.

during this economic working group meeting, both china and the united states raised each other's concerns.

from the us press release, we can find that the two sides discussed the issue of balanced growth of the global economy. in fact, the us has long made false accusations against china on this issue.

gao lingyun from the institute of world economics and politics of the chinese academy of social sciences told tan zhu:

the main manifestation of global economic imbalance is that the capital inflow and outflow of some countries cannot be balanced. the united states is a consumer country with relatively little production, which leads to an imbalance in capital flow. at the same time, as the us dollar itself is the mainstream international currency, it needs to export dollars through trade or bonds to supply global transactions, which has a complex impact on the flow of us funds. in general, global economic imbalance is the inevitable result of low savings and insufficient production in the united states, and high debt to support high spending.

this is originally america's own problem, but the united states hopes to "pass the buck" to china by hyping up issues such as china's so-called "economic imbalance" and "overcapacity." china certainly will not accept this.

the chinese press release shows that china has also expressed solemn concern about the us's imposition of tariffs on china, investment restrictions on china, sanctions involving russia, and suppression and impact on the interests of chinese companies.

on september 27, the united states will begin to impose tariffs of up to 100% on chinese electric vehicles. the united states is still using the so-called "de-risking" and "overcapacity" to provoke trade frictions with china, and even encourages its allies to "decouple and break the chain" with china, which is undoubtedly "laying mines" for the us economy and even the world economy.

because various tariff barriers will cause a sharp rise in prices and easily form a chain reaction around the world. if the united states cannot cancel its tariffs on china as soon as possible, the inflation in the united states, which has just fallen, will still face the risk of rebounding.

at present, the risks facing the us economy are more than these - as can be seen by observing the extent of the federal reserve's interest rate cuts.

historically, the fed has usually cut interest rates by 25 basis points when there is no recession. the direct 50 basis point cut this time may mean that the fed has determined that the us economy is already at risk of recession and needs to cut interest rates quickly.

as the world's largest economy, the us economy has a significant spillover effect on the world economy. china needs to understand and communicate clearly about these risks, and china and the us should also jointly seek ways to resolve the risks.

in addition to these topics, both china and the united states mentioned relevant content on responding to global challenges in the economic working group press release.

at present, a key issue in the global economic challenge is the debt problem of developing countries, which is also a global issue that has been discussed at the china-us economic working group meeting.

in terms of debt relief, china has actively participated in the discussions of the g20 financial channel and has taken many practical actions. as the largest contributor to the g20 debt relief initiative, my country accounts for more than 40% of the global debt relief total and has played an active role in debt issues in chad, zambia, ghana and other countries.

in contrast, many african countries' largest creditors are us lenders.

the interest rates of these american lending institutions are high. at the same time, after the interest rates are further raised during the federal reserve's interest rate hike cycle, many developing countries will fall into the development traps of "inability to repay", "credit deterioration" and "difficulty in financing".

after the united states entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, these vulnerable countries were unable to cope with the adjustments in external macroeconomic policies. asset prices were low, and short-term funds took the opportunity to flow in, further exacerbating the risks and uncertainties in these countries.

under such circumstances, the united states needs to do more on the debt problem of developing countries. at the same time, china and the united states also need to coordinate on global economic governance to help developing countries smoothly weather fluctuations and risks.

the world needs communication and cooperation between china and the united states.