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Musk's Robotaxi has not yet been built, and doubts have arisen again.

He envisions a car that can be used for two purposes: when the owner is not using the car, he can rent it out as a taxi and create a private fleet of self-driving taxis. If the market is good, one car can earn$30,000(approximately RMB 215,000), a low-cost and high-return side job.

But before the plan was implemented, Uber CEO poured cold water on it:

There are huge problems with this model!

In the view of Uber CEO,TeslaThis Robotaxi business model is not mature. However, if Tesla cooperates with itself, it will be another matter.

01 

It’s better to cooperate than to do it yourself

Last Friday, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi publicly questioned Musk's Robotaxi plan on a show, saying there may be big problems.

He said that from the perspective of application scenarios, it is still unknown whether Tesla owners "are willing to let strangers ride in their cars", and there is also great uncertainty as to whether Robotaxi can meet passengers' car needs during peak traffic hours.

In his opinion, Musk underestimated a "key part": building a $50,000 (about 359,000 yuan) car is the same as driving it every day. More than 30 million transactions, is a "very, very different business."

Because not every transaction can be completed smoothly, what should be done if someone gets sick or loses something in the car?

Koslowski's solution is:Tesla can work with itself.

In fact, in January this year, Uber and Tesla reached a cooperation to encourage American drivers to use electric vehicles. Khosrowshahi believes that if Musk's Robotaxi plan can also cooperate with Uber, it can help it transform into a ride-hailing service.

From the perspective of autonomous driving technology capabilities, Tesla FSD does have advantages. Currently, FSD has evolved to version V12.5, upgraded from the original torque-sensing steering wheel to an eye tracking system. It can be used normally even if the owner wears sunglasses. The new version has switched to an "end-to-end" solution for highway and urban intelligent driving.

The Robotaxi, originally scheduled to be released on August 8 this year, will be postponed toOctober 10Officially released. Regarding the subsequent operation of Robotaxi, Musk said in July that Tesla will launch a ride-sharing platform, and vehicle owners will share revenue directly with Tesla.

Unlike Musk's own Robotaxi fleet, if Tesla is only responsible for making cars, Uber canQuickly adjust the number of part-time drivers to meet demand during peak hours or large events"We have spent 15 years and invested tens of billions of dollars to provide this help to our partners immediately. We hope Tesla can be one of our partners."

The reason why Uber CEO extended an olive branch to Tesla is because he has tasted the sweetness of cooperating with other companies and is paving the way for his next step.

In the second quarter of this year, Uber's total order volume was $40 billion, up 19% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of exchange rate changes, it was up 21% year-on-year. Revenue was $10.7 billion, higher than analysts' expectations of $10.57 billion. Earnings per share were 47 cents, higher than analysts' expectations of 31 cents.

Both revenue and profits exceeded expectations, and drivers and couriers earned a record $17.9 billion in the quarter.

The growth of the taxi business declined significantly in the first quarter, but the company was able to deliver such impressive results in the second quarter, which has a lot to do with Uber's partners.

In May, Uber announced a partnership with Instacart to add a "restaurant" option to the grocery delivery app, enabling users to order food directly from restaurants and have it delivered through Uber Eats. Khosrowshahi said the average order size from Instacart is 20% larger than Uber's local orders, and the trends in the partnership are "encouraging."

Uber also highlighted that the number of passengers in its self-driving cars in the second quarter was six times that of a year ago, thanks to 10 partnerships, including with Alphabet's self-driving car company Waymo, which provides ride-sharing and food delivery services in Phoenix, Arizona, and with startup Waabi for freight services.

July 31, Uber and Chinese electric car giantBYDannounced that they would work together to add more than 100,000 BYD vehicles in the next few years to build aRobotaxi fleets around the world。

Although Khosrowshahi did not disclose the specific details of the cooperation with Waymo, in his opinion, the utilization rate of self-driving car companies on the Uber platform isFar higher than independent operationMoreover, as autonomous driving technology matures and regulatory policies become unclear, there will be a fairly long period of mixed development, and the autonomous driving car market will not be a "winner takes all" situation.

Others who hold similar views to Uber CEO includeNIOAt this year's Weilai Innovation Technology Day, Li Bin clearly statedWill not enter the Robotaxi market。

Li Bin believes that the real value of intelligent driving lies in liberating the driver's energy and reducing traffic accidents, rather than replacing the work of private car drivers. Robotaxi is not an inspiring business model, nor is it a sustainable big business.

02

How to do Robotaxi business?

When it comes to Robotaxi, the attitudes of the bigwigs can be said to be very clear.

Tesla's number one fan, known as the "femaleBuffettTake Cathie Wood, who is known as "Wood Sister" of Ark Investment Management Company in the United States, for example. The reason why she is crazy about Tesla is precisely based on the potential of its autonomous driving technology.

She said Tesla will use its Robotaxi business to transform itself from a "pure electric car maker" and its stock price could increase tenfold.

In her view, the gross margin of the self-driving taxi business is between 80% and 85%, while the current gross margin of the electric vehicle business is between 15% and 17%. The self-driving taxi market will be a global revenue$8-10 trillionopportunity.

Moreover, the business model of the self-driving taxi network business is very different from the business model of "one-time deal" automobile manufacturing and sales: self-driving taxis will be a "winner takes all" industry, and those suppliers who can transport passengers in the safest and fastest way will get the largest share of the business.

At the same time, providers of autonomous taxi networks will be able to earn a 30% to 50% share of the revenue generated by the fleets on their platform, thereby gaining “real value”.Recurring income with explosive cash flow”, and a profit margin of over 50%.

Many people also believe that Robotaxi has passed the "industry pain period", such as the initial stage of burning money, difficulty in financing, and bankruptcy. With the development of autonomous driving technology, Robotaxi is still a huge blue ocean.

McKinsey Consulting Report and CICC Research Data predict that by 2030, the global market space for driverless taxi Robotaxi business will beOver $2 trillion。

From a domestic perspective, Pacific Securities' forecast is more specific, predicting that by2025 and 2030, the scale of Robotaxi Chinese market is expected to break through1.18 trillion yuan and 2.93 trillion yuan‌These data show that the Robotaxi market has huge growth potential

Faced with such a huge market, it is difficult for any company to resist getting involved.

In the field of complete vehicles, not only Tesla, but also domestic car companies are voting for Robotaxi with their actions.auspiciousIt was incubated internally very early.Cao CaoFor travel, SAIC has Xiangdao Travel.GACYou Ruqi travels.

These car companies are all borrowing the names of their own travel platforms to appear in the Robotaxi track.

But it is not difficult to see that as car companies, most of them are entering the Robotaxi market in the form of cooperation. At present, Tesla seems to be an exception.

According to Tesla's idea, Tesla's Robotaxi is self-produced and self-operated, and can be used not only as a private car, but also as an online car-hailing vehicle. Car owners can flexibly choose to join or leave the Robotaxi fleet according to their needs. Just click on the Tesla App, and the vehicle will join the fleet and start making money when the owner leaves.

The Robotaxi commercialization model promoted by Tesla does sound very attractive at first glance, but in fact it is difficult to withstand careful scrutiny.

First of all,Operating qualifications and non-operating qualificationsFor example, in China, private cars cannot be used for business purposes and require special applications. In addition, the vehicle wear and tear and energy costs caused by the operation are also a difficult account to spread out.

The characteristics of online ride-hailing vehicles mean that their annual mileage may be greater than that of private cars in five years. The business model of taxis is to earn the difference between energy consumption and revenue. If the cost of vehicle damage is high and the energy cost cannot be reduced, then this operating model is doomed to fail.Unsustainable。

Perhaps in order to maximize the benefits of Robotaxi during its vehicle life cycle, Tesla decided to develop a model specifically for Robotaxi, and these changes will have different technical orientations than those for C-end models.

They will optimize the vehicle's battery system, electric drive system, and even tires to extend the vehicle's service life. For example, the life of a Robotaxi vehicle can reach 1 million miles.

It is also a new car manufacturer and is also known for its intelligent driving technology.Xpeng MotorsAlthough it has also chosen to enter the Robotaxi industry, its thinking is obviously different from Tesla's. Xpeng plans to enter the Robotaxi industry, but will not directly participate in operations.Seeking cooperation with operators such as Didi and Uber, bringing driverless technology to the world.

He Xiaopeng believes that manufacturing cars is difficult in itself, and operating them is even more challenging, so more partners are needed to jointly promote the development of Robotaxi.

He Xiaopeng's view is also the mainstream attitude in the industry. Luobo Kuaipao, which has now been commercialized, is the best example.

"Iron Triangle" cooperation modelIt has become the mainstream operating model of Robotaxi. For the promotion of Robotaxi,Autonomous Driving CompaniesAlthough they have the necessary core technologies, they lack the team and experience to operate online ride-hailing services on a large scale.Travel PlatformNot only are they familiar with the online car-hailing market and user groups, but they also often haveCar companiesStrong resource advantages.

And Robotaxi is a typicalTwo-Sided Platform EconomyIf there are not enough self-driving vehicles and users have to wait too long, it will be difficult for the entire platform to attract users. On the contrary, if there are not enough users, the cost of enterprise layout will be very high.

From the current perspective, compared with Musk's "pie in the sky" business model, the multi-party cooperation model that is gradually maturing in China seems to be more reliable.