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thoughts on the development opportunities and paths of modern railway logistics in the new era

2024-09-29

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this year's "government work report" regards vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new productive forces as important tasks. the report of the 20th national congress of the communist party of china clearly stated that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a modern economic system, strive to improve total factor productivity, and strive to improve the resilience and safety level of industrial and supply chains, so as to promote effective qualitative improvement and steady quantitative growth of the economy.

we are currently facing severe challenges and key opportunities in the reconstruction of the world economic and industrial structure. the “one belt and one road” initiative, the development of the western region, new energy and new infrastructure and industrial digitalization, intelligent upgrading and green transformation are accelerating the formation of a domestic macro cycle. the main body and domestic and international dual circulation mutually promote the new development pattern. modern logistics runs through the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, connecting production and consumption, domestic trade and foreign trade. it is an important infrastructure that supports the efficient operation and high-quality development of the economy and society. guided by the spirit of improving systems and mechanisms to promote high-quality economic development and building systems and mechanisms that support comprehensive innovation, we will promote the deep integration of the modern logistics industry with manufacturing, commercial circulation, and consumer industries, and use new technologies, new models, and new business formats to support industrial digitalization and intelligence. it is the new era to promote upgrading and green transformation, develop new economic formats such as digital economy, hub economy, low-altitude economy, cross-border e-commerce and green and low-carbon logistics, and seize new opportunities in the transformation and upgrading of the domestic economy and the restructuring and development of the global supply chain system. important opportunities and challenges for the development and innovation of modern logistics and the development of railway logistics during this period.

01. new stage | breaking into the new "volume"

in recent years, the characteristics of logistics shifting from incremental market to stock market competition have become more and more obvious. insufficient overall demand in the logistics market and oversupply of resources and capabilities have resulted in endless "volumes" in various logistics market segments. this "volume" has also been transmitted at the same time. upstream and downstream, the profitability of enterprises in the logistics industry is low and the enterprise groups are further divided. this kind of "volume" brought about by market competition and corporate survival, on the one hand, strongly promotes companies to tap their potential and improve efficiency, and survive the fittest. on the other hand, it also accelerates product and service innovation, and promotes industrial digitalization and intelligent upgrading. a number of companies have emerged in development that rely on measures such as artificial intelligence, big data, intelligent algorithms, new technologies and new equipment, product and service innovation, digitalization, and intelligent upgrades to achieve scenario service changes, improve technological efficiency and reduce costs, thereby promoting development innovation and service upgrades. corporate sample. for example, intelligent driving vehicles have been put into use in batches in closed scenes such as ports, mines, and parks, as well as on some open roads, and have achieved remarkable results. new energy vehicles and charging and swapping modes have been successfully promoted and applied in some areas and lines. jd.com, tu, and comma a number of technology companies such as technology have broken through traditional operation and scenario bottlenecks and achieved innovative breakthroughs in areas such as large models, big data applications, and intelligent scheduling algorithm optimization.

referring to the relevant kpmg report, the development of supply chain logistics has gone through five stages. today's outstanding logistics companies are rapidly evolving from supply chain logistics 4.0 to supply chain logistics 5.0, while most traditional supply chain and logistics companies are still in supply chain logistics 2.0, in the 3.0 era, the digitalization, intelligent upgrading and low-carbon green transformation of the industry not only promote the development and innovation of the industry, but also drive the differentiation of the industry development pattern.

the main characteristics of supply chain logistics in each period:

1. supply chain logistics 1.0

features: combination of "storage" and "transportation"

development model: transportation mechanization

main technology: machinery

2. supply chain logistics 2.0

features: innovative development of socialized logistics services

development model: logistics modernization

main technologies: machinery, management system

3. supply chain logistics 3.0

features: rapid development of modern logistics

development model: supply chain logistics system networking

main technology: automation technology

4. supply chain logistics 4.0

features: logistics industry transformation and high-quality development

development model: digitalization of the entire logistics process

main technologies: internet of things, machine learning, ai, etc.

5. supply chain logistics 5.0

features: all-domain digital supply chain logistics

development model: global collaborative digital intelligence

main technologies: ai, autonomous vehicles, digital twins, etc.

the development of global digital supply chain logistics further promotes the deep integration and innovative development of manufacturing, commercial circulation, and consumer industries. performance includes the following five aspects:

1. linkage between public and private domains to stimulate global traffic growth.

2. multi-platform, cross-platform and global operations, brand enterprises gain growth dividends.

3. full integration of online and offline services to inject more vitality into consumption.

4. the two-wheel drive of content e-commerce and shelf e-commerce amplifies global value.

5. domestic and foreign efforts are being made across the board, and new cross-border e-commerce formats have become a new normal.

"survival of the fittest" is an unchanging market law. in the market environment of global development and full-chain integration, it is the most effective choice to achieve digital and intelligent upgrades through new technologies, new models, and new business formats, and to break through the "windfall" in the new direction. and pathways.

02. new era | new challenges, new pattern

first, the ideals are full and the reality is skinny. modern logistics sounds high-end, but in actual practice it is still mostly boring, repetitive and arduous basic operations. labor, fuel, and operating costs continue to rise. logistics service prices have been hovering or declining for many years. disorderly market competition, transportation overloading and other phenomena are common. even the warehousing market that has been relatively stable for many years has experienced significant oversupply and warehouse rental prices have fallen. since the beginning of this year, road vehicle transportation prices have declined, and the transportation prices of bulk production materials have fallen even further.

second, leading companies take advantage of the situation to seize market share. leading companies in each market segment rely on their own brands, resources, networks, scale, and technological innovation advantages to expand the market and still achieve outstanding results in a weak market. for example, jd logistics' revenue in the first half of 2024 was 86.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and non-ifrs profits were 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2631%; aneng logistics achieved revenue of 5.289 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% , the adjusted net profit was 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.4%; zto express's revenue in the first half of 2024 was 20.686 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the adjusted net profit was 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, becoming a franchise express delivery enterprise market the enterprise with the highest share, the best cost efficiency, and the strongest single express delivery profitability.

third, traditional parties and new forces enter the game across borders. traditional parties of logistics companies such as steel companies, cement companies, and manufacturing companies have entered the market one after another with the help of their own supply, upstream procurement, product technology and other advantages, and with the help of digital technology development and digital platform policy support, transforming their own corporate logistics departments into logistics companies, such as ouye cloud business under wuhan group, yunlizi+jixian under new hope, zhongyuan dayi technology under tianrui cement, luxun logistics under belle international, etc. digital platforms and ecological chain main companies such as didi and lalamove rely on their huge traffic advantages or model innovation and format innovation advantages to enter the traditional logistics market with innovative service products and service models.

fourth, “government platform+” promotes the accelerated expansion of logistics infrastructure construction. policy support projects such as national logistics hubs, cold chain logistics bases, chain reinforcement and chain strengthening, and special bond construction projects have been implemented one after another. government investment and operation platforms are used as the main carrier to promote the planning, construction and implementation of more logistics infrastructure projects, and further improve logistics facilities. while laying out and strengthening the shortcomings of logistics infrastructure, it also affects the market supply and demand pattern. due to the lack of market operation capabilities of investment and operation entities and the pressure to achieve construction and operation goals, differences in the executeability and operating environment of planned construction projects have a negative impact on the market supply and demand relationship brings diversified impacts.

fifth, the development of modern logistics faces new challenges. first, the market has entered the stage of stock change & incremental creation. the integrated smart supply chain service capabilities of industry enterprises are insufficient and uneven. unstandardized competition and vicious competition are common. second, service capabilities lag behind the development of demand, and product and service innovation capabilities insufficient, homogeneous services and price wars are serious; thirdly, the overall service digitalization level of the industry lags behind the development of market demand, the digitalization level and service capabilities of enterprises vary greatly, and the network and platform service ecology is fragile.

03. "resources + capabilities" transformation | new path for railway logistics development

since the railway freight reform in 2013, efforts have been made in various ways to develop the railway "white goods" market, and in markets such as express railway train transportation, passenger car railway transportation, railway cold chain transportation, and general logistics contracting and freight organization model, etc., but in the early days, the target market development of railway "white goods" in the traditional ltl, express, and express delivery markets did not meet expectations, and there were also different understandings and adjustments to the scope of the railway "white goods" market positioning.

whether from the perspective of taking the domestic cycle as the main body and domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern, or from the perspective of my country's resource distribution and industrial layout in the new era, from the perspective of industrial digitalization, intelligent upgrading and green transformation, vigorously develop railways logistics is not only a need for high-quality economic and social development, but also an inevitable choice to give full play to the safety, efficiency and green advantages of railway transportation.

first, precise positioning. first, from a market perspective, what is the value combination of products and services that railway logistics has advantages in? second, from the perspective of resource characteristics, how can railway transportation resources be transformed into product and service value? how to convert to market value? third, from the perspective of integrating resources, how to effectively link resources, create value, and build an ecosystem? fourth, from the perspective of technological empowerment, how to realize technology productization and product commercialization, and transform the advantages of railway transportation resources into product and service advantages that serve the market?

second, focus on the “resources + capabilities” transformation of large national railway resource-based enterprises. first, from the perspective of improving the value of products and services, how to maximize resources and make up for the lack of resource capabilities from the perspective of transportation and operations? the second is from the perspective of improving the advantages of the service value chain, how to link, integrate, optimize and utilize resources and social resources to the maximum extent? including local railway resources, dedicated line resources, park resources, logistics network resources, etc.; the third is how to accelerate the transformation of "resources + capabilities" into logistics service platforms, ecological development resources, and product and service advantages; the fourth is how to innovate products and services to enhance market advantages; the fifth is how to open up collaboration, technological innovation, and create a "win-win chain" for railway logistics from the perspective of industry chain, supply chain, and value chain collaboration.

third, change the thinking from traditional transportation thinking to logistics thinking and user value thinking. under different thinking modes, the same thing will reflect different results or conclusions. taking the original railway mail trains/e-commerce trains as an example, under the transportation concept, the trains that operate at fixed points and routes at the passenger level between two technical stations are faster, safer, punctual, and more efficient than road transport. although the transportation price is advantageous, the actual operation is not satisfactory, and user feedback is far less than expected. under the thinking of logistics and user value, this railway transportation product has obvious shortcomings compared with road transportation. the main manifestation is that road transportation is direct transportation from warehouse to warehouse, while railway transportation requires two additional short-distance calls and two additional calls at both ends. the cost of loading and unloading (taking a certain express delivery company as an example, the total cost is more than 6,000 yuan per vehicle) basically offsets the cost advantage of railway transportation. the two short barges and loading and unloading operations increase the probability of packaging damage and also reduce the overall transportation speed advantage.

fourth, strengthen the improvement of technological equipment and digital and intelligent upgrades. the first is to improve the level of scientific and technological equipment to change the current level of equipment and automation of railway station operations, improve operating efficiency and reduce operating costs; the second is to use digital and intelligent development to open up information barriers between different departments, systems and entities, such as railways between different systems, between railways and highways, and between railways and users, the entire logistics chain can be digitized and visualized, scientifically and systematically improving the level of resource coordination and service quality, further improving efficiency and reducing costs; thirdly, improving and changing the original logistics through scientific and technological equipment eliminate unsmooth business links and achieve efficient operation of the entire logistics process. for example, through innovative container transportation and unitized transportation tools, multimodal transportation and circular transportation services that were originally unavailable can be realized. through innovative design of shipping units and optimization of transportation organization methods, goods sources that can only be transported by single road can be realized through multimodal transportation or multimodal transportation. rail transport alternatives.

fifth, explore the potential of railway stations. more than 2,000 existing railway stations, planned construction parks and central stations, together with national railways, local subways and special lines, can form a railway logistics network radiating across the country. however, most of them are currently used to meet the needs of railway transportation, loading and unloading operations, and shipment and pickup of cargo owners. goods need to be planned and constructed. with the adjustment of industrial layout and urban construction, some station facilities have become idle. most of them are difficult to meet the requirements of modern logistics operations and services, and it is even more difficult to meet the needs of large logistics centers or hubs for regional gathering of logistics service resources. , to carry out the entire industry chain supply chain logistics services, there are also policy restrictions on the use of sites and venues. based on railway station resources, we will extensively link social logistics resources, improve the level of digitalization and intelligence, expand service functions, and reconstruct new advantages in the development of railway logistics parks, based on the railway transportation "park (station) + channel + network" building a complete infrastructure for high-quality development of railway logistics.

sixth, implement the policy requirements of reducing logistics costs for the whole society and green and low-carbon development, and focus on advantageous target markets. the first is to focus on the integrated comprehensive logistics market, build a platform, build an ecology, link advantageous resources from the perspective of integrating the industrial chain, supply chain, and value chain, and create an integrated railway logistics service platform and integrated smart supply chain service capabilities; the second is to focus on "resources" + capability" advantage transformation, focusing on the development of the bulk logistics market; the third is to give full play to the advantages of railway transportation network resources, focusing on multimodal transport and park logistics markets; the fourth is to give full play to the main advantages of national railway transportation, smooth internal and external connections, and focus on resource expansion and resource links , ecological development, various ways to widely link various social logistics resources including local railways, dedicated lines, ports, as well as industrial chain resources including manufacturing, commercial circulation and logistics enterprises, division of labor and cooperation, and ecological development .