during this year's mid-autumn festival, the decline in liquor sales was indiscriminate, regardless of brand or grade. even moutai sold less than before. on e-commerce platforms, the affordable feitian moutai, which was once snapped up by millions of people, is now sold by less than 150,000 people. the decline in the consumer population has caused the price of feitian moutai to hover at a low level since april.kweichow moutai’s share price has also shrunk by 22% so far this year.

01. moutai is not prosperous during the peak season

every year, the mid-autumn festival and national day are the peak seasons for liquor sales. as the "king of liquor", moutai is no exception due to its many attributes. however, this year, the situation is very different from previous years. liquor merchants directly said that "this market is a bit confusing."

"this mid-autumn festival, the moon is the same as usual, but moutai liquor lacks the festive atmosphere," lamented a wine merchant.

a wine industry practitioner revealed that during this year's mid-autumn festival, the decline in liquor sales was indiscriminate, regardless of brand or grade, and even moutai did not sell as much as before.

"in previous years, whether it was original boxes of feitian moutai or loose bottles of feitian moutai, customers would buy a lot during the holidays, some for themselves and some for gifts." a long-term moutai business told caijing tianxia that this year only a few people came to buy, and sales fell a lot compared with previous years. another wine merchant revealed that his feitian moutai sales this year fell by about 40%, with fewer new customers and a low repurchase rate for old customers.

the sluggish sales of liquor during the peak season caused kweichow moutai's stock price to fall again and again. on september 13, kweichow moutai fell 2.32% after falling 3.26% the previous day, closing at 1,304.13 yuan per share, a new low since november 2022, with a total market value of 1.64 trillion yuan. during the day, kweichow moutai's share price once fell below the 1,300 yuan mark, and related topics instantly rushed to the top of the internet.weibohot search.

since 2024, kweichow moutai’s stock price has fallen by 22.88% in more than 9 months, and its total market value has evaporated by 472.3 billion yuan, which is more than the second largest in the industry.wuliangyethe market value on september 13 increased by nearly 50 billion yuan.

people also analyzed the reasons. some said: "when moutai loses its financial attributes, it will become liquor and return to its proper price." others said: "as the population before 1970 ages, the liquor consumer population shrinks sharply, and the collection value returns to zero, just like the stamp market." more people said: "with the fall of moutai technology, it is time to witness the rise of real high technology."

not only that, the selling price of kweichow moutai's core product, feitian moutai, is also falling.

according to the wine industry data agency "today's wine price", on september 14, the price of 2024 feitian moutai in original boxes was close to 2,500 yuan/bottle, at 2,510 yuan/bottle, 25 yuan/bottle less than the previous day and 150 yuan/bottle less than september 1. on that day, the price of feitian moutai in loose bottles was 2,380 yuan/bottle, 20 yuan/bottle less than two days ago.

this is still the wholesale reference price. in the terminal market, the selling price of feitian moutai is even lower. after subsidies from several major e-commerce platforms, the price of a bottle is around 2,275 yuan.

in fact, the price of feitian moutai has been hovering at a low level since april this year. even with the mid-autumn festival and national day, it did not pick up, but instead started a round of decline during the double holidays.

in april, the reference wholesale price of feitian moutai fell below 2,600 yuan/bottle; on the eve of the dragon boat festival holiday, it fell below the "balance line" of 2,500 yuan/bottle; after the dragon boat festival, it fell to around 2,400 yuan/bottle; in mid-june, everyone was still worried that feitian moutai would fall below the wine merchants' "bottom line" of 2,200 yuan/bottle, and in late june, it fell below 2,100 yuan/bottle at one point, and then began to hover again.

"today's wine price" shows that in august, the reference wholesale price of feitian moutai once recovered to more than 2,400 yuan, but in september, it began to decline again, and the price difference between the original box packaging and the loose bottle packaging became smaller and smaller. on september 14, the price difference was only 130 yuan/bottle, while on september 1, the price difference between the two was 295 yuan/bottle.

in the wine circle, 53% 500ml feitian moutai in original boxes is more valuable than loose bottles. original boxes refer to the original unopened boxes of moutai, with 6 bottles in a box; loose bottles refer to moutai sold individually. since original boxes of moutai are more suitable for collection and gift giving, and are more difficult to counterfeit, original boxes are more "scarce" than loose bottles. when it was hot a few years ago, in the market, the original boxes of feitian moutai were 500 to 600 yuan more expensive per bottle than loose bottles.

on september 9, at the 2024 semi-annual performance meeting of kweichow moutai, an investor asked how to deal with the huge pressure on the company's stock price brought by the falling price of feitian moutai. zhang deqin, chairman of kweichow moutai, responded that moutai has conducted in-depth market research in various provinces and regions, and continued to improve its strategic and tactical system that is both systematic and coordinated. the overall market situation is relatively stable.

02. financial attributes are fading

the consumer group of feitian moutai has changed.

xiao zhuqing, a commentator on the liquor industry, believes that in the past, the main consumers of feitian moutai were mainly in three major industries: real estate, large infrastructure, and finance. currently, these three industries are undergoing in-depth adjustments.

the popularity of feitian moutai is inseparable from its financial attributes. but now, the financial attributes are also fading.

"some people say that it is because young people don't drink liquor anymore. in fact, the main reason for the decline in kweichow moutai's share price is de-financialization. a large part of the driving force behind the rise in the price of feitian moutai in recent years has been investment demand. people are hoarding feitian moutai and waiting for the price to rise, just like real estate is largely driven by investment demand. once investment demand peaks, the process of de-financialization will inevitably come." some analysts believe.

even the number of small retail scalpers who make a profit by reselling products is decreasing.

during the years when feitian moutai was popular, in addition to the kweichow moutai distillery and official distributors, a complete industrial chain was formed in the market, including scalpers, wine merchants, hoarders, investors and speculators... it was hard to say who the real "moutai fans" were.

kweichow moutai's channel reform, whether it is pre-order sales on jd.com and tmall, or the launch of the direct sales channel imoutai, has allowed the "moutai fans" group to continue to expand.

many young people who do not drink and do not like the drinking culture have gradually become "mao fans", buying, reselling and hoarding. feitian moutai is no longer a wine, but a "financial product" that can be resold to make money and hoarded for appreciation, and "the more it rises, the more it is speculated."

to put it bluntly, many so-called "mao fans" are actually "scalpers", but they are just different in size.

when it was hot a few years ago, booking moutai on jd.com was a "daily activity" with millions of people participating. for example, in early january 2021, the number of people who booked 1,499 yuan feitian moutai on jd.com exceeded 2 million in a single day. on september 14, 2024, the number of people who participated in the reservation of 1,499 yuan feitian moutai on jd.com was less than 150,000.

moutai has also begun to be "neglected".

guotai junan pointed out in a recent research report that looking ahead, it is speculated that the characteristics of "de-dependence on real estate" and "de-luxury" in liquor consumption will continue to stand out.

kweichow moutai co., ltd. is promoting transformation. at the kweichow moutai liquor 2024 half-year market work conference held in july, kweichow moutai said that the second half of the year is a critical period for getting through this round of industry adjustments and also a critical period for completing the 2024 goals and tasks.

kweichow moutai also emphasized a key point at the meeting - to make three transformations: "first, customer group transformation, targeting unicorns, specialized and new enterprises, small giants and other enterprises, and cultivating practitioners of emerging industries such as new energy, biotechnology, and digital technology as new consumer groups; second, scene transformation, developing business consumption for potential industries and future industries, and developing scenes such as family and friends gatherings; third, service transformation, the marketing idea should change from 'birds of a feather flock together' to 'people are divided into groups', and the service concept should change from 'selling products' to 'selling lifestyles' for different segments of the population."

"it will take time to test the effectiveness of moutai's three major transformations." xiao zhuqing said that at present, investors are also worried about how long it will take for kweichow moutai's three major transformations to take and what results they will achieve.

03. below moutai, all liquors are difficult to

kweichow moutai is the "king of liquor" and has the best ability to withstand pressure. now, even moutai can't bear it anymore, with both its stock price and liquor price falling. naturally, other liquors are no exception.

below moutai, the share prices of giants such as wuliangye, yanghe shares, luzhou laojiao, shanxi fenjiu, etc. are also falling. caijing tianxia found that since 2024, as of the close of september 13, wuliangye fell 19.28%, yanghe shares fell 29.9%, shanxi fenjiu fell 33.46%, and luzhou laojiao fell 41.22%. no one was spared in the downward trend.

cai xuefei, an analyst in the liquor industry, said that the weak demand in social consumption has led to weaker expectations; the industry is generally plagued by problems such as high inventory, low sales, and price inversion. the decline in the share prices of listed liquor companies, in addition to the difficulties in the capital market, also shows that as the industry adjustment continues to deepen, the market is further differentiated.

a wine merchant said that for him, this year's mid-autumn festival is the most difficult one in recent years.

"the liquor market is still experiencing a sluggish peak season, with falling prices for high-end products and sluggish mass consumption all plaguing the industry. on the positive side, the industry is currently in the bottoming out phase, and it is expected that an industry-wide inventory inflection point will appear around the spring festival next year, with some advantageous markets and brands beginning to recover, thereby driving prices of top liquors to stabilize," cai xuefei analyzed.

in fact, as a benchmark for liquor, feitian moutai possesses multiple attributes. even if the market price goes down, there will not be a price inversion for the time being. however, other core liquor products except feitian moutai have already been inverted.

the product structure of kweichow moutai is mainly divided into "moutai" and "series of wines". among them, "moutai" mainly includes feitian kweichow moutai, kweichow moutai (wedding banquet), aged kweichow moutai (15, 30, 50, etc.), kweichow moutai (treasure), kweichow moutai (boutique), kweichow moutai (zodiac), etc.; "series of wines" include moutai prince wine, hanjiang wine, lai mao wine, kweichow daqu, moutai yingbin wine, moutai 1935, etc.

since moutai 1935 was launched in january 2022, it has been the main "series wine" promoted by kweichow moutai, and it is even the only one. moutai 1935 has directly raised the price of "series wine" from a few hundred yuan to more than a thousand yuan, competing with wuliangye and guojiao 1573 for the market. on the "i moutai" app, moutai 1935 is also its main product.

with the strong brand appeal of the word moutai, many people rushed to buy moutai 1935 after it was launched. at that time, feitian moutai was hotly hyped, and moutai 1935 also became the object of market speculation, and the market price was once higher than the guidance price.

in the 2023 annual report, kweichow moutai emphasized "praising" moutai 1935, which created an "industry miracle" and became a single product with revenue of tens of billions of yuan only two years after its launch. moutai 1935 has become the most important single product in the kweichow moutai series of liquors.

now, moutai 1935, whose official guide price is 1,188 yuan, has been sold at 1,188 yuan on imoutai, while on major e-commerce platforms, its price has already dropped to around 850 yuan, which is in an inverted state.

moutai 1935 adopts a "dual-track" channel price, in which the planned ex-factory price is 798 yuan/bottle, and the unplanned ex-factory price is 1,088 yuan/bottle. on september 14, moutai 1935 was sold at 888 yuan/bottle in the moutai prince flagship store on tmall, 859 yuan on jd.com, and only 758 yuan/bottle under pinduoduo's 10 billion yuan subsidy.

in fact, the current situation of moutai 1935 is just a microcosm of many liquors other than feitian moutai.

with the 10 billion yuan subsidy from pinduoduo, two bottles of the eighth generation wuliangye are priced at 1,744 yuan, or 872 yuan per bottle; two bottles of guojiao 1573 are priced at 1,634 yuan, or 817 yuan per bottle. in this sense, both are currently in an upside-down state.

china merchants securities recently pointed out in a research report that this year's supply side has been divided, high-end and mid-high-end investment is more cautious than last year, and regional wine companies are relatively active in policy investment. judging from the recent continuous adjustment of the capital market, sufficiently pessimistic expectations have been formed. if the double holidays can withstand the stress test, it is expected that the stock price will reverse.

(author | zhang xiangyang,editor | wu yue）