news

by chen yongjie eight months have passed this year. the economic data in the first half of the year was better than social expectations, which is remarkable; however, many companies are experiencing great difficulties and there are many discussions. the central government's judgment on the economic situation is: "the overall economic operation is stable, with steady progress, and the upward trend continues. new momentum and new advantages are being cultivated at a faster pace, high-quality development is being steadily promoted, and the overall social situation remains stable."

the national bureau of statistics describes the economic situation as follows: "since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to recover and has been operating smoothly overall, but some indicators have also experienced short-term fluctuations, causing some public opinion to worry about the prospects for my country's economic development." looking deeper into the macro-economy, the operating data of the three major market entities, the state-owned economy, the private economy and the foreign-funded economy, and the three economic carriages, show some new situations and new characteristics: the state-owned economy has developed rapidly and grown significantly, the private economy has been uneven in different fields, with some good and some bad, and the foreign-funded economy has declined overall. the following is a brief description and analysis of the relevant economic data of the "three carriages" in the past eight years and the first half of this year.

first, let's look at the investment economy: according to the cumulative growth rate announced by the national bureau of statistics, from 2015 to 2023, the average annual growth rates of national, private and state-owned investment were 5%, 3.7% and 7.7% respectively; the proportion of private investment dropped from 58.8% to 50.4%. from january to june 2024, the total national investment was 24359.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, of which private investment was 12727.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, accounting for 51.9% of the national investment; state-owned investment increased by 6.8%, far exceeding the growth rate of private investment.

overall, although private investment still accounts for more than half of the national investment, its growth momentum has obviously weakened, and the situation has become even worse in recent years. in the past eight years, it has been lower than the national growth rate in six years, and even more significantly lower than the growth rate of state-owned investment. it can be seen that the weak growth of private investment is the main reason for the obvious slowdown in national investment growth!

second, look at the industrial economy: during the eight years from 2015 to 2023, the growth rate of state-owned industrial added value is basically the same as that of private enterprises, and foreign investment is significantly lower; the revenue growth rate of state-owned enterprises is already higher than that of private enterprises, and foreign investment has grown slowly; the profit growth rate of state-owned enterprises is much higher than that of private enterprises, (calculated in absolute numbers) private enterprises are basically stagnant, and the growth rate of foreign investment is very low; the revenue profit margin of state-owned enterprises has increased by 1.5 percentage points, private enterprises have decreased by more than 1 percentage point, and foreign enterprises have increased by 0.3 percentage points; since 2017, the revenue profit margin of state-owned enterprises has significantly exceeded that of private enterprises; the asset profit margin of state-owned enterprises has increased by nearly 1 percentage point, private enterprises have decreased by more than 5 percentage points, and foreign enterprises have decreased by about 2 percentage points; labor productivity (per capita revenue) of state-owned enterprises has more than doubled, private enterprises have only increased by 12%, and foreign enterprises have increased by nearly 80%.

industrial added value: in the eight years from 2015 to 2023, the national industrial added value increased by 55%, with an average annual growth of 5.6%; among them, the state-owned industry above designated size increased by 51%, with an average annual growth of 5.3%, the private industry increased by 54.5%, with an average annual growth of 5.6%; the foreign-funded industry increased by 35%, with an average annual growth of 3.8%. in the first half of this year, the national and state-owned, private and foreign-funded industrial added value above designated size increased by 6%, 4.6%, 5.7% and 4.3% respectively.

industrial enterprise revenue: in the eight years from 2015 to 2023, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size, calculated according to the growth rate announced by the national bureau of statistics, increased by 68%, 69%, 64.6% and 36% for national enterprises, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 6.7%, 6.8%, 6.4% and 3.9% respectively. in the first half of this year, the growth rate of operating income of national enterprises and state-owned, private and foreign-funded industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.9%, 1.9%, 3.4% and 0.5% respectively. in 2015, the proportion of operating income of state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises was 21.8%, 34.8% and 22.1%, respectively in 2023, 27.5%, 36.6% and 20.4%, respectively, and 27.7%, 37% and 19.7% in the first half of this year; in the same period of the same year (i.e. 2015, 2023, 2024, the same below), all private enterprises (private enterprises and other enterprises) accounted for 43.6%, 42% and 42.6% respectively.

profits of industrial enterprises: in the eight years from 2015 to 2023, if calculated according to the growth rate announced by the national bureau of statistics, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide, state-owned, private and foreign-funded enterprises increased by 84%, 134%, 67% and 37% respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 7.9%, 11.2%, 6.6% and 4% respectively. in the first half of this year, the announced growth rates of profits of national enterprises and state-owned, private and foreign-funded industrial enterprises above designated size were 3.5%, 0.3%, 11% and 6.8% respectively. the respective proportions of profits of state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises were 17.3%, 36.6% and 24% in 2015, 29.4%, 36.6% and 30.1% in 2023, and 34.4%, 28.2% and 24.5% in the first half of this year; in the same period of the year, all private enterprises accounted for 58.7%, 40.5% and 41% respectively, and the overall proportion of private enterprises decreased by 18 percentage points.

enterprise profit margin: in the eight years from 2015 to 2023, the profit margin of state-owned industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.6 percentage points amid fluctuations; the profit margin of private enterprises gradually decreased by 1.6 percentage points, 1.4 percentage points lower than that of state-owned enterprises; the profit margin of foreign-owned enterprises remained basically stable, increasing by 0.3 percentage points. in the first half of this year, the profit margin of state-owned enterprises was 6.7%, private enterprises was 3.8% and foreign-owned enterprises was 6.8%. in terms of asset profit margin, state-owned enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points amid fluctuations; private enterprises gradually decreased by 5.7 percentage points; foreign-owned enterprises decreased by nearly 2 percentage points. in the first half of this year, the profit margins of state-owned enterprises were 3.8%, private enterprises were 3.7% and foreign-owned enterprises were 5.6%.

industrial labor productivity: this data refers to the annual per capita operating income of enterprises. in the eight years since 2015, calculated at the price of the current year, the annual per capita operating income of state-owned enterprises increased from 1.415 million yuan in 2015 to 2.992 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 1.1 times; private enterprises increased from 1.152 million yuan to 1.381 million yuan, an increase of 20%; foreign-owned enterprises increased from 1.07 million yuan to 1.88 million yuan, an increase of 76%. the increase in labor productivity of state-owned enterprises is significantly faster than that of private and foreign enterprises.

third, look at the construction economy: during the eight years from 2015 to 2023, the proportion of total output value of state-owned construction enterprises in the national total construction output value increased from 30.4% to 42.4% in 2023; the proportion of private construction industry decreased from nearly 70% to less than 60% in 2023.

in 2015, the total output value of the national construction industry was 18.1 trillion yuan, of which the total output value of the state-owned construction industry was 5.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.4%; the non-state-owned construction industry accounted for nearly 70%. in 2023, the total output value of the national construction industry was 31.6 trillion yuan, of which the total output value of the state-owned construction industry was 13.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 42.4%; the non-state-owned construction industry accounted for 57.6%. since the overall scale of foreign-funded construction is extremely small, non-state-owned construction can be regarded as private construction. in the first half of this year, the output value of the state-owned construction industry accounted for 44.5% of the country, and the non-state-owned construction industry accounted for 55.5%.

in 2015, the number of employees in state-owned construction enterprises was 9.15 million, accounting for 18% of the total number of employees in construction enterprises nationwide; in 2023, it increased to 12.11 million, accounting for 25.8% of the total number of employees in the country; in the first half of this year, it accounted for 27.1%. over the past eight years, the number of state-owned construction enterprises, total output value, total number of employees and proportion of completed construction area have all increased significantly, while the various indicators of private construction enterprises have declined significantly.

fourth, foreign trade economy: in the eight years from 2015 to 2023, foreign trade is the only area where private enterprises maintain a significantly higher growth than state-owned enterprises and foreign investment. the proportion of private enterprises in the total import and export volume was 35% in 2015, 52.4% in 2023, and 53.9% in the first half of this year. the proportion of private enterprises in the total export volume was 42.8% in 2015, 62% in 2023, and 63.7% in the first half of this year. the proportion of private enterprises in the export surplus was 98.4% in 2015, 133.% in 2023, and 132% in the first half of this year.

total import and export volume: in 2015, private enterprises accounted for 35% of total import and export volume, state-owned enterprises accounted for 16.4%, and foreign enterprises accounted for 46.4%; in 2023, the three accounted for 52.4%, 16%, and 30.2% respectively; in the first half of this year, the three accounted for 53.9%, 15.6%, and 29.1% respectively. among them, in 2015, private enterprises accounted for 42.8% of total exports, state-owned enterprises accounted for 10.7%, and foreign enterprises accounted for 44.2%; in 2023, the three accounted for 62%, 8%, and 28.6% respectively; in the first half of this year, the three accounted for 63.7%, 7.7%, and 27.3% respectively. over the past eight years, the total export value of private enterprises has increased from us$973.8 billion in 2015 to us$2095 billion in 2023, an increase of 1.15 times, with an average annual growth of 10%; the total export value of state-owned enterprises has increased from us$242.4 billion to us$268.9 billion, an increase of 11%, with an average annual growth of 1.3%; the total export value of foreign-funded enterprises has decreased from us$1004.7 billion to 965.6 billion, an overall decrease of 0.5%, with an average annual decrease of 0.07%.

foreign trade surplus: in 2015, private enterprises accounted for 98.4%, state-owned enterprises accounted for -27.9%, and foreign enterprises accounted for 29.3%; in 2023, the three accounted for 133.3%, -50.1% and 16.8% respectively; in the first half of this year, the three accounted for 132%, -46.7% and 14.7% respectively.

the above data show that for more than eight years, it is basically private enterprises that have independently supported the continuous growth of china's foreign trade. the annual increase in foreign trade exports basically comes from private enterprises. private enterprises have also created an average annual foreign trade surplus of more than 120%, with a cumulative total surplus of us$7.26 trillion, becoming the absolute main force in supplementing china's annual foreign exchange reserves (more than us$3 trillion per year). over the past eight years, the cumulative total foreign trade deficit of state-owned enterprises has reached us$2.8 trillion.

fifth, look at the overall state-owned economy: from 2017 to 2022, the total assets of non-financial state-owned enterprises nationwide increased by 85%, with an average annual growth of 13%; from 2017 to 2023, the operating income increased by 64%, with an average annual growth of 8.6%; the total profit increased by 60% in 6 years, with an average annual growth of 8.1%.

growth of state-owned enterprise assets: according to the report data provided by the state council to the national people's congress, the total assets of non-financial state-controlled enterprises nationwide were 18.35 trillion yuan in 2017 and 33.95 trillion yuan in 2022; calculated based on the data of that year, the total assets increased by 85% in five years, with an average annual growth rate of 13%, far exceeding the growth rate of the total assets of private and foreign enterprises.

revenue growth of state-owned enterprises: according to data released by the ministry of finance, the total operating income of non-financial state-controlled enterprises nationwide was 52.2 trillion yuan in 2017 and 85.7 trillion yuan in 2023; calculated based on the data of that year, it increased by 64% in 6 years, with an average annual growth of 8.6%. in the first half of this year, operating income increased by 1.9%. this is significantly higher than the growth rate of revenue of private and foreign enterprises.

profit growth of state-owned enterprises: according to data released by the ministry of finance, the total profit of non-financial state-controlled enterprises nationwide was 2.9 trillion yuan in 2017 and 4.6 trillion yuan in 2023; calculated based on the data of that year, it increased by 60% in 6 years, with an average annual growth of 8.1%. profits fell by 0.6% in the first half of this year. this is also significantly higher than the growth rate of the private economy and foreign-funded economy.

according to data released by the ministry of finance and the national bureau of statistics, the status of state-owned enterprises among national enterprises is as follows.

first, in 2022, there were 360,000 state-controlled legal entities nationwide, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of 32.83 million legal entities nationwide.

second, the operating income of the national state-owned holding enterprises (non-financial, hereinafter the same) was 8.6 trillion yuan, equivalent to 31% of the total revenue of 27.87 trillion yuan of the national large-scale enterprises (non-financial, hereinafter the same).

third, the total profit of state-owned holding enterprises nationwide was 4.6 trillion yuan, equivalent to one-third of the 13.7 trillion yuan profit of large and medium-sized enterprises nationwide.

fourth, the operating profit margin of national state-owned holding enterprises is 5.4%, while that of national large-scale enterprises is 4.9%, with little difference between the two.

fifth, the asset-to-revenue ratio of state-owned holding enterprises nationwide is 24.3%, while the asset-to-revenue ratio of enterprises above designated size nationwide is 78.3%. there is still a big gap between the two.

sixth, the asset profit margin of state-controlled enterprises is 1.3%, while the asset profit margin of large and medium-sized enterprises nationwide is 3.9%, which is a huge gap.

seventh, the asset-liability ratio of state-controlled enterprises is 64.4%, while the asset-liability ratio of large and medium-sized enterprises nationwide is 58.3%, which are close.

in general, over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, in the first 30 years, the private economy and foreign-funded economy developed very rapidly, their share in the national economy continued to increase, and their status continued to improve; while in the past decade, the state-owned economy has regained its growth momentum, and its overall development speed has been faster than the private economy, and significantly faster than the foreign-funded economy. the proportion of the state-owned economy has changed from a continuous decline in the past to a continuous increase.

(the author is the vice president of dacheng enterprise research institute)