wang xianju: the caspian sea is expected to become a china-europe trade hub
2024-09-11
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on the eve of the astana summit of the shanghai cooperation organization member states in july this year, lianyungang signed an agreement with the kazakhstan national railway company to establish a joint venture to accelerate the construction of the aktau port container hub project in the caspian sea. in early august, kazakh president tokayev published an article entitled "the renaissance of central asia: a path to stable development and prosperity", emphasizing that kazakhstan and other central asian countries should strengthen the construction of transportation and logistics infrastructure, especially "developing international transport lines across the caspian sea (middle corridor), the 'north-south corridor', and the 'belt and road' initiative". judging from the recent development trend of the international situation and the future direction of transportation and logistics in the eurasian region, whether the caspian sea will become a new eurasian continental connection hub and a future trade hub between china and europe has attracted attention from the outside world.
first, with the ukrainian army's invasion of russia's kursk region in early august, the military confrontation between russia and ukraine has become more intense and prolonged. some russian scholars believe that the relationship between russia and europe will be difficult to improve "at least in the next ten or twenty years." this will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the first eurasian continental bridge (vladivostok to rotterdam) and the second eurasian continental bridge (lianyungang to rotterdam) put into operation in 1992, and there is great uncertainty in terms of safe operation. from the objective demand for transportation and logistics between europe and asia, it is necessary to open a new eurasian continental bridge.
second, from the perspective of the development prospects of the belt and road initiative and the north-south corridor, the new eurasian continental bridge may connect the caspian sea port city of aktau to baku (azerbaijan) on the other side, and then to europe via turkey. if so, the caspian sea is likely to become a future trade hub between china and europe. in early july this year, the opening ceremony of the cross-caspian direct express from china to europe was held. with the deepening development of the belt and road cooperation, especially the cooperation between china and central asia, there may be more china-europe trains transferred to aktau in the future, and then shipped to baku by sea to europe.
the "international north-south corridor project" signed by ten countries including russia, iran and india in 2000 and implemented in recent years is also through the caspian sea. it consists of a sea, land and rail network, connecting mumbai, india and eurasia. rasht (iran) and aktau on the caspian sea are two of the most important hubs. according to the plan, there will be branch lines connected to the main line of the corridor, which will run through central asia and eastern europe, and then reach st. petersburg, from where it will reach the european market by land and sea.
third, over the past thirty years since the independence of central asian countries, especially in the past eight years, they have made remarkable achievements in national construction, market economic development, cultural heritage revival, and national identity. the aforementioned tokayev article mentioned that "central asia is very likely to develop into one of the most important logistics and transportation hubs in the world". kazakhstan is working with its partners to develop international transport routes across the caspian sea (the middle corridor) as much as possible. the rapid development of central asia has provided opportunities for cooperation between china and the caspian ports.
fourth, china-central asia cooperation provides a solid foundation for the establishment of an international trade hub in the caspian sea. today, china is one of the largest trading partners and investors in central asian countries. in 2023, china's trade with the five central asian countries reached us$89.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%. the joint statement issued by the first china-central asia summit in may 2023 emphasized that "the important position of central asia as a transportation hub of the eurasian continent should be consolidated, the construction of the china-central asia transportation corridor should be accelerated, and multimodal transport between china, central asia, south asia, china, central asia, the middle east, and china, central asia, europe should be developed, including the china-kazakhstan-turkey-iran transit corridor, and the trans-caspian transport routes passing through the ports of aktau, kuryk, turkmenbashi, etc., and the transit transport potential of termez should be brought into play."
at the same time, it should be noted that there are also some challenges for the caspian sea to truly become a new trade hub between china and europe. first, it takes a process for central asian countries to develop transportation and logistics infrastructure, especially the expansion of aktau port and kuryk port and the construction of supporting projects, which require a lot of investment and a long time, and the raising of funds and how to use them effectively are full of challenges. second, the formation of a trade hub is not an isolated incident, but is closely related to the situation in kazakhstan and turkmenistan bordering the caspian sea, as well as several surrounding central asian countries and even the south caucasus. in addition to solving the funding problem, the challenges facing the south caucasus are political changes, the conflict between azerbaijan and armenia, and some hidden dangers that need to be eliminated.
the author believes that if a new caspian sea international trade hub is to be formed, the relevant countries must first reach a consensus. from the current perspective, the positions of the five central asian countries with vital interests are relatively consistent, providing the most important condition for the construction of the hub. secondly, it is necessary to strengthen broader international cooperation. the construction of a new caspian sea international transport corridor is a huge project. whether it is russia, iran, and india promoting the "international north-south corridor plan" or the eu and central asian countries developing transportation and logistics projects, they should learn from each other's strengths and weaknesses, show mutual understanding and accommodation, and ultimately achieve win-win cooperation. (the author is the deputy director of the russian research center of renmin university of china-saint petersburg state university)
