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bmwjust announced on september 5th that it is ready to launch a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle for the market in 2028. its ceo zipse mentioned that he has "foreseen that the market demand for fuel cell vehicles will increase significantly in the future." apart from anything else, in the context of the slowdown in global market demand for pure electric vehicles, this can be regarded as a market supplement.

however, if you look deeper into bmw's plan, you'll find that this matter seems to be more than just abandoning the ix5 hydrogen...

details behind bmw's plan: deepening andtoyotacooperation

according to nikkei, bmw's plan to launch a new fuel cell vehicle is closely related to toyota, another giant in fuel cell technology. both companies hope to reduce the production cost of fuel cell vehicles through some form of cooperation. at a time when the global economic situation is not good, this starting point is very realistic.

however, in contrast to the image of bmw as a "pioneer in hydrogen power technology" that it has consistently touted over the past few decades, in this division of labor between the two parties, toyota will be responsible for the key components of the fuel cell power part - such as the hydrogen storage tank and the fuel cell itself, while the electric drive part will be handed over to bmw.

since hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will inevitably encounter problems of high costs and prices at this stage, bmw also emphasized that the positioning of new products is aimed at the high-end market - on the one hand, it is to weaken the price impact, and on the other hand, it is probably to avoid the impact of pure electric products of domestic new energy brands.

the "expensiveness" of fuel cell vehicles is not just about production and sales, but also about the various aftermarket accessories. for this reason, bmw is currently planning to jointly build related infrastructure (especially hydrogen refueling stations) with toyota in order to reduce costs through economies of scale.

are hyundai's considerations closer to bmw?

coincidentally, hyundai motor group has recently been rumored to have the possibility of cooperating with toyota in the field of hydrogen fuel cells: on september 2, not long ago, sources pointed out that akio toyoda will fly to seoul, south korea at the end of october this year to meet with hyundai motor group chairman chung eui-sun, who was the inviter of this trip.

as for what the two sides will discuss at that time, these sources said that the focus will be on strengthening cooperation in the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles and jointly building a hydrogen energy ecosystem, and the relationship between the two sides in these areas will be closer in the future.

it should be noted that unlike bmw, which currently only has a symbolic product like the ix5 hydrogen, hyundai motor group has gone a little further in the civilianization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. at least they have actually achieved mass sales in south korea and california, usa.Nexoand provide supporting hydrogen refueling services. moreover, in 2021, hyundai motor group also deployed an overseas hydrogen fuel cell base in guangzhou, which cannot be ignored. in terms of the "confidence" of cooperation, hyundai, which has more civilian experience, may gain more favorable factors in future negotiations.

the meeting between the two bosses has not started yet, so it is unknown what they will discuss in detail. however, there is one thing that should be in common with bmw - cutting costs.

toyota's hardware support: solid-state batteries are also advancing

toyota's reasons for seeking cooperation should be similar. if we have to guess, we might add another one, which is to copy the model of opening up the use rights of ths patents before and earn some royalties. of course, toyota did not mention this, so this idea is just a guess.

here we might as well jump out of the topic of fuel cells for a moment and look at another recent move by toyota in the field of new energy: according to a reuters report on the 6th, the japanese government will allocate an additional us$2.4 billion to support its domestic power battery industry. specifically for toyota, the latter plans to start production of a new solid-state battery in november 2026, and try to put solid-state batteries into practical use in 2027 or 2028.

toyota, which has been criticized for its solid-state battery delays, has actually slightly moved up the schedule, which is quite rare. considering the time point of "practical application" in the new plan, we can guess that toyota's own fuel cell products may also use solid-state batteries by then - although they only say that they will be used in pure electric models now.

after all, for mature hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars at this stage, the fuel cell itself is essentially more like a range extender, because the power generation capacity of the fuel cell itself is still limited. as a supplement to the output, a more efficient electric drive part is naturally considered.

as for whether toyota will include solid-state batteries as part of its "open access rights" behavior at that time... i personally think it is very likely. isn't this always the style of the japanese when it comes to patents... 😅

energy efficiency is the most important

from a macro perspective, hydrogen power itself has another disadvantage that is not environmentally friendly: it is too troublesome to produce hydrogen. even if it is photovoltaic power generation that uses the sun for free, it is not a good deal - the following picture has drawn it quite intuitively:

not to mention the subsequent compression and storage actually have considerable losses. in the simple conversion in the figure above, the same 100kwh of electricity provided by the power station,toyota miraithe final converted mileage is only equivalent totesla model sabout half of the total energy consumption is wasted, and most of the waste occurs in the hydrogen production, compression, transportation and storage.

as for the bmw hydrogen 7 (the one at the bottom of the picture above), which relies directly on internal combustion engines, it is even more unrealistic at this stage. here is a brief quote from the calculation of overseas blogger engineering explained:

the system thermal efficiency is equivalent to half of the fuel cell (in fact, it may be lower), fuel consumption performance andlexusrc f is similarly calculated - because the most mature hydrogen internal combustion engine is derived from its v8, to ensure a range of 300 miles, it needs about 16kg of hydrogen. using the toyota mirai's hydrogen tank as a reference, this amount is about 400l. the interior of a general car will be directly squeezed by the hydrogen tank to the extent that there is no space in the cockpit.

as a possible form of clean energy, hydrogen power has obvious advantages and disadvantages. judging from the current level of technological development, it is understandable that these few remaining car companies seek to cooperate with each other. perhaps we should give them more encouragement - after all, without the exploration of these pioneers, it is probably impossible to know to what extent a technology tree can be tapped.

reference links:

https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/industry/icar/56632-2024-09-06-09-49-03.html?start=1

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-nissan-support-japans-battery-production-capacity-nikkei-reports-2024-09-05/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJjKwSF9gT8