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why is china's civil aviation manufacturing so far behind the united states, but not its military aircraft?

2024-09-06

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here is the mountain that longya is climbing.

the application scenarios are completely different, and the industrial chains are also different. it is very normal for military products and civilian products to have different needs.

if we compare across countries (big countries),the factors of global industrial chain/closed industrial chain must also be considered.for example, mobile phones are typical products of the global industrial chain, while military communication equipment is generally the result of a closed industrial chain. it is obvious that products from the global industrial chain have advantages over both of them.when comparing military systems, countries occupying the high end of the global industrial chain undoubtedly have an advantage.

for example, around 2004, the civilian communication system had generally entered the 2.5g mobile communication era, while my country's military communication system had no mobile communication network at all, the fixed communication network had just basically completed program control, and there were still many magnetic/manual exchanges.

for example, this set is called "8-way relay machine", and the troops call it "old 8-way", microwave relay provides channels, and magnetic switches serve as user access devices. it is a very old system.

this is a magnetic switch. in fact, the 8-way microwave relay can be completely program-controlled. however, at that time (late 1990s), my country's program-controlled machines were not completely domestically produced, and the core technology was in the hands of foreign countries. it was impossible to rely on foreign equipment to build its own military communication system, so it had to use manual switching: the user dialed in a call, told the operator who to call, and the operator connected the call.

by 2000, program-controlled computers had been completely made in china, and we could finally use them with confidence.it was at this time that the magnetic switch was replaced with a programmable computer, and the new 8-way relay communication system was renamed "gai 8-way".

the story of the old route 8 and the modified route 8 is very telling:

first, military systems have high confidentiality and reliability requirements, and it is impossible to use a global supply chain;

second, if your country’s supply chain companies are not at the top of the world, you will not be able to become a global leader.

the same thing has happened many times in the development history of our military's communication system. it's not just the weibo relay communication system, but also radio, satellite, and mobile communications. we were "choked" by the united states for more than 30 years until a series of domestic companies such as huawei and zte came up with it. by the time i retired, they were basically able to synchronize with the civilian system. civilian 4g, military 4g can also be used.

this is the significance of the rise of domestic products.

the most tragic thing here is the first generation of satellite vehicles, vsat satellite communication vehicles. the channel machine is from hughes company in the united states, which can provide a 2m channel and 1 service call. but you dare not use other people's channel machines, so you can only add a domestic encryption/decryption machine at the back end. after adding this domestic machine, you can only have 4 voice channels/1 service call. 16k per voice channel, 4 voice channels, a total of 64k channel resources can be used. but the rental of satellite transponders is real, calculated by "piece", one is 2m, that is real money.

in addition, the long-term backwardness in the 2g era was also very painful. civilian gprs is considered 2.5g, and the bandwidth can reach 128k per user. one device can easily support 90 users. at that time, our military can only achieve 16.6k at most, with one user occupying one device exclusively. there is a world of difference.

things were a little better in the 3g era, and china began to have a say. we simply gave up on catching up with military use in this communications era, and made do with 2g equipment for many years. it was not until 2016 that there was a replacement, but as the saying goes, "a man should be looked at with new eyes after three days of absence." we took a step into the 4g era, with 2m channels for a single mobile user, hundreds of users on one device, "battlefield wifi", personal satellite terminals, and multiple access methods.

because domestic substitution has been thoroughly carried out, we have a say in the communications field throughout the world, with our own standards, technology, and equipment, and have finally achieved parity with the united states.

the catch-up of communication systems is actually the same as the catch-up of the aviation industry. it is very normal that civil aviation lags behind while military aviation equipment is advanced.

china's civil aviation lags behind because it started late. it has only been more than 40 years since the y-10, and the truly practical arj21 is even later, with only more than 20 years of history. the united states started civil aviation very early. it had a civil aircraft manufacturing industry and produced classic models as early as before world war ii.

china's military aviation industry started earlier than its civil aviation industry. the first aircraft designed and manufactured by china was the q-5 (not counting trainer aircraft), which started in the late 1950s. the us military aviation industry started earlier, of course.but here’s a key point:

the military aviation industries of both countries are closed industrial chains.

it turns out that it is not a good idea to have a global industrial chain for military systems...

as a purely multi-purpose fighter for the air force, the fei dian is actually very excellent. china does not yet have a comparable multi-purpose fighter. the f-35a land-based take-off and landing multi-purpose fighter is actually very excellent. the j-35 has not yet been put into service and its specific performance is still unknown. in this regard, we must be realistic and say that we are not as good as the united states.

but the f-35b and f-35c are another matter.

the problems of the "global supply chain" in military systems are very, very serious. there are inconsistent technical standards, complex supply chains, and many hidden dangers. this is why many netizens look down on the f-35, and it is precisely this part of the so-called "global fighter" that exposes the problems.

the only ones that can compete with each other are the j-20 and the f-22.

it is also the result of a closed industrial chain, which makes it impossible to take advantage of the global industrial chain to achieve leadership. so whoever has a complete and advanced industrial chain will have more advanced products.

in fact, the f-22 did not enter service much earlier than the j-20.

the f-22 was officially put into service in 2005, and the j-20 was officially put into service no later than 2017, with a difference of only 12 years.

the third-generation aircraft is completely different. the f-16 was put into service as early as 1978, and the j-10, which is its counterpart, was officially put into service in the 21st century...

what’s even worse is that the f-22’s industrial chain was closed in 2011!

he closed it himself!

damn!

for high-tech weapons such as the f-22 and j-20, the closure of the production line actually means the closure of 80% of the industrial chain itself. in fact, many parts, materials and even processes of the production line of such high-tech weapons are dedicated, and you can no longer find any other use for them without this product.

for example, i have seen a special antenna for large-scale ionospheric scattering communication, which has a very strange process: ceramics are stuffed into an aluminum tube. how can ceramics be sintered in an aluminum tube? the melting point of aluminum is only 660 degrees, and ceramics need to be sintered at least 800 degrees. the aluminum tube is also required to be seamless, which means that the aluminum tube can only be formed by cold drawing first, and then clay is poured into it according to the shape of the aluminum tube and then sintered.

i still don't understand how this technology is used, and i can't think of any need for this strange technology in the civilian field.

in fact, there are so many strange processes in various professional fields. if this production line stops, the industrial chain will be gone, and these processes, materials, and technologies will be lost.

this is also the reason why the united states cannot "restart" the f-22 production line, as the process materials and technology have been lost.“restarting” a production line is not just a matter of pressing the “reset” button, nor is it a matter of cleaning up and reconnecting the power. rather, so many of the original specialized processes and the veteran workers who understood these processes are gone!

therefore, the f-22 has actually stopped iterating since 2011;

the j-20 has not stopped its iteration to date.

so you see, the j-20 versus f-22 is not "c919 versus 737max-8" as you imagined, but "c919 versus 737-800", which is a 20-year-old 737-800 with an aging production line, careless assemblers, and a terrible quality supervision and management.