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On May 9, 1999, the Philippine Navy sailed a tank landing ship from World War II to Ren'ai Reef and began to "actually control" Ren'ai Reef on the grounds that it had "mechanical failure and had to run aground on the reef flat on the northwest side of Ren'ai Reef". Since then, under pressure from China, the Philippines has repeatedly promised to tow the warship away, but has never fulfilled its promise and has also attempted to reinforce the warship to achieve permanent occupation of Ren'ai Reef.

Now 25 years have passed, and it is still difficult to predict how this incident will evolve in the future. Last month, I was in the United States for academic exchanges. An American scholar expressed his incomprehension that China and the Philippines have not yet found a proper solution to the Ren'ai Reef issue and have wasted so much energy on it. According to his logic, China should have ended the "cat and mouse game" with the Philippines on the Ren'ai Reef by "quickly cutting the Gordian knot".

In fact, the question raised by this foreign scholar also reflects the views of some people in China. In particular, after the release of the "Investigation Report on the Damage to the Coral Reef Ecosystem by Illegally "Beached" Warships at Ren'ai Reef" jointly compiled by the South China Sea Ecological Center and the South China Sea Development Institute of the Ministry of Natural Resources on July 8 and the "Re-rebuttal of the South China Sea Arbitration Award" jointly written by the Huayang Ocean Research Center, the China Institute of South China Sea Studies and the Chinese Society of International Law on July 11, many domestic scholars have raised similar questions.

I believe that Ren'ai Reef is a still bleeding wound for China, the entire international community, and the countries surrounding the South China Sea. We must consider a way to fundamentally solve the problem and stop the bleeding as soon as possible.

As part of the Nansha Islands, Ren'ai Reef was originally uninhabited. Therefore, ending the confrontation and restoring the original uninhabited state of Ren'ai Reef is in line with the spirit of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (hereinafter referred to as the "Declaration"), that is, not to take actions to inhabit uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, sandbanks or other natural structures. China's actions on Ren'ai Reef are not only to safeguard the integrity of the territorial sovereignty of the Nansha Islands, but also to maintain the solemnity of the Declaration.

On July 11, we released the report "Re-rebuttal of the South China Sea Arbitration Award" in Beijing. This was based on many considerations, including the fact that the Philippines has long relied on the award to consolidate its illegal gains, expand the scope of infringement, and used the award as a handle to hype up "China's infringement on the Philippines' exclusive economic zone rights," violated the "gentleman's agreement," and smeared China's legitimate rights protection actions.

If China does not take action to restore calm on the Ren'ai Reef as soon as possible, it will not only cause the international community to doubt China's will and ability to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, but may also further encourage the Philippines to take risks and expand its infringements in waters such as the Xianbin Reef, the Tiexian Reef and the Huangyan Island.

Therefore, I believe that the Ren'ai Reef issue is not simply a matter of China trying to prevent the Philippines from breaking its promise and trying to supply the illegally "grounded" warship, but a touchstone for China to demonstrate its will and ability to deal with the South China Sea issue as a major country, and to "keep its word and fulfill its action". At the same time, properly handling the Ren'ai Reef issue and ending the "standoff" at Ren'ai Reef as soon as possible will also help create a good external environment for the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" consultations.

In terms of the path to resolving the Ren'ai Reef issue, I think there are several ways.

First, we should resort to diplomatic means. At present, the existing bilateral diplomatic consultation mechanism between China and the Philippines is still valid. On July 2, China and the Philippines just held the ninth meeting of the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea issue. Therefore, China must use this dialogue mechanism, which is still in effective operation, to clearly inform the Philippines that it has violated its promise and exceeded the bottom line of the consensus reached by both sides that "only humanitarian supplies can be carried out". The Philippines has gone too far and tried to permanently reinforce and illegally occupy the Ren'ai Reef militarily. This is not only unacceptable to China, but also a bad act that violates the Declaration and undermines peace and stability in the South China Sea.

China should submit a "timetable" for withdrawing from Ren'ai Reef to the Philippines through diplomatic channels. In this "timetable" similar to an "ultimatum", China should clearly propose the time nodes for withdrawing all military personnel and the humanitarian supply arrangements during the transition period. China can also ask the Philippines to propose effective solutions to the environmental pollution problem of Ren'ai Reef, especially to properly deal with the garbage, oil, and even explosives inside the "beached" warship, and to ask the Philippines to restore Ren'ai Reef to its natural state before its occupation. If the Philippines does not cooperate, it is necessary for China to send a special working group composed of various engineering and environmental experts to conduct on-site investigations and surveys and propose a reasonable plan for direct disposal of the ship.

If the Philippines refuses to accept the diplomatic solution proposed by China, other means will be needed, that is, to take the second step.

The second step is to prevent or "blockade" all forms of provocative and status quo-changing actions of the Philippines, including maritime and airdrop supply at Ren'ai Reef, after the expiration of the "ultimatum". At that time, China can declare a "temporary warning zone" in the waters of Ren'ai Reef in accordance with Article 25 of the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the Coast Guard" which came into effect on February 1, 2021 and Article 35 of the "Regulations on the Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures of the Coast Guard" which came into effect on June 15, 2024, and clarify matters such as the scope of the area, the warning period, and management measures. After a certain period of blockade, the Philippine military personnel stationed at Ren'ai Reef will have to face the problem of "survival crisis". China can open a "special channel" for humanitarian considerations to allow the Philippines to repatriate its military personnel stationed at Ren'ai Reef.

The third step is to eliminate the ecological and environmental hazards and environmental disasters caused by the grounding of non-active Philippine warships on Ren'ai Reef. According to convention, there are two main options for dealing with grounded ships: towing away with a tugboat or cutting on the spot. However, since the ship has been illegally "grounded" on Ren'ai Reef for 25 years, after years of wind and sun, seawater corrosion and lack of maintenance, it can be concluded that the bottom of the ship has been severely rusted or even rotten, and it is highly likely that it cannot be towed away from the scene by normal technical routes. Therefore, the most likely treatment method China will adopt is to cut on the spot, and then clean up the steel, oil, mechanical equipment and other waste left behind by the Philippine ship.

In short, in my opinion, China does not need to use military means to deal with the Ren'ai Reef standoff, but only needs to use civil law enforcement means of the coast guard agency.

China had already promulgated domestic legislation on maritime law enforcement, including the Coast Guard Law, in 2021, but the relevant operational details were not clear at the time. The Regulations on Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures of the Coast Guard, which came into effect on June 15, made up for this shortcoming, including legal provisions for the implementation of restrictive measures against people, repatriation, and temporary warning zones at sea.

At the same time, we need to pay special attention to the fact that when taking these measures, there must be a certain degree of transparency. We can inform ASEAN and other relevant parties through diplomatic channels in advance to inform them that the purpose of China's actions is to restore Ren'ai Reef to its original appearance, end the confrontation as soon as possible, prevent accidental firing that endangers the overall peace and stability of the South China Sea, and strive to win the initiative of public opinion and positive recognition from the international community. In addition, the characterization of the stranded ship and other international law issues that may be involved in the "zero clearance" operation are not discussed in this article.