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As Ohio Senator JD Vance was officially nominated as the Republican vice presidential candidate, the 39-year-old's previous inappropriate remarks were repeatedly brought up, especially his remarks about "cat ladies without children" caused huge controversy. His poll support rate is showing a continued downward trend.According to CNN, Vance broke the record for the most unpopular non-incumbent vice presidential candidate since the 1980 party convention.These phenomena seem to indicate that Vance is not a reliable choice for Trump. However, in fact, in the 2024 election, the elderly Trump is not so much screening vice presidential candidates as looking for a successor to his legacy, the "MAGA" movement.As a staunch supporter of Trump, even if Vance's negative influence is so great that the Republican Party loses the election, it can ensure that Trump's anti-establishment ideas will be passed on.The claim that Vance is Trump's liability actually needs further discussion.

Questions about Vance are also growing within the Republican Party.When Vance was first introduced at the Republican National Convention, many Republican officials said they knew little about him. Longtime Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway even launched a series of criticisms against Vance and expressed doubts about Vance's preparation and campaign vetting by leaking information to the media. Some anonymous Republican members also expressed concerns about Vance's foreign policy stance, lack of experience,and concerns about being unable to expand the Republican coalition beyond Trump’s base because their political positions are almost completely aligned with Trump’s.

Although the negative reports faced by Vance have affected his image in the public mind to some extent, and these issues may also cause some divisions within the Republican Party, Trump's decision to choose Vance as his vice presidential candidate has deeper strategic considerations behind it.Trump's choice of Vance was not based solely on his ability as a running mate, but more on his potential as a new generation of leader in maintaining and advancing Trump's political legacy.

Republican Senator John Kennedy once pointed out that "politics is a full-contact sport" and no one can guarantee that past remarks and experiences will meet the requirements of all voters. With three months to go before the election, it may be too early to judge Vance based on reports alone. For example, since women's issues are the main direction of the Democratic Party's attack, Vance's controversy over his "childless cat lady" remarks is likely to have been deliberately magnified by the Democratic Party. At the same time, Vance's appeal to centrist voters and potential investors cannot be underestimated. These groups tend to consider factors other than media coverage when evaluating candidates.

More importantly, Trump chose Vance as the Republican vice presidential candidate.It reflects Trump’s strategic layout for the future of Trumpism and anti-establishment.In American politics, the differences between the establishment and the anti-establishment are obvious, and Trump is seen as a representative of the latter. He believes that the current political ecology is undermined by partisan confrontation, ethnic conflict, and the elite's unrealistic discussions, and the interests of ordinary people are marginalized, which deviates from the founding principles of the United States. Trump has always been a representative of populism, focusing on key issues such as immigration and trade, and claiming to be the "spokesman for the grassroots people", winning widespread support. The "MAGA" movement has gathered a group of staunch supporters for Trump, and even after the end of his presidency, its influence continues on the political stage. However, many of Trump's political tendencies are not completely consistent with traditional Republican ideas. The Republican Party traditionally emphasizes concepts such as controlling government spending, reducing fiscal deficits, and strengthening the alliance system, but under Trump's leadership, some Republicans have abandoned some traditional positions, which has caused divisions and contradictions within the party.

In the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump faced challenges from within the Republican Party, especially social and religious conservatives who were still skeptical of him. To ease these doubts, Trump chose Mike Pence, who has close ties with evangelical Christian voters and 12 years of experience in Congress, as his running mate. This decision helped balance the different voices in the party. However, by the 2024 campaign, Trump's position in the party has improved significantly. He needs to consider no longer just the victory of the election, but how to shape an anti-establishment future for the Republican Party and ensure that his political legacy, the "MAGA" movement, can continue to influence American politics.While it stands to reason that choosing a partner who complements Trump in some ways could bring electoral advantages, if that partner differs too much from Trump in values, ideology or racial background, the MAGA movement could lose its core spirit among the leadership.Against this backdrop, Vance has become Trump's ideal choice. Since becoming a senator in 2023, Vance has been a staunch defender of the "MAGA" movement and has held firm conservative positions in key policy areas such as foreign policy, trade, and immigration restrictions.

Trump clearly thought carefully about choosing his running mate, especially considering that his relationship with former Vice President Pence had broken down. Before deciding on Vance as his running mate, Conway suggested that he consider other candidates who would be helpful on the ballot.But in the endTrump chose Vance anyway, suggesting he prefers to strengthen his core supporters.According to the New York Times, Trump attached great importance to the critical articles about Vance and reached a consensus with him on political ideas, saying, "In fact, we are on the same path."

Choosing Vance as his running mate, even if there is a risk that Trump may lose the election, may help the spirit and propositions of the "MAGA" movement continue to have an impact in the future. Many structural problems in American society - including the widening gap between the rich and the poor, deep-rooted racial conflicts, and intensified political polarization - are the soil that breeds the "MAGA" movement. As a prominent representative and successor of the "MAGA" movement, Vance has established his important position on the political stage through his vice presidential nomination. He will not only play a key role in the 2024 election, but may also become a strong contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.

About the Author:

Yu Haihong is a research assistant at the Minzhi International Research Institute and an undergraduate student at Southwest University of Political Science and Law. Her research interests include foreign policy analysis, culture and international relations, and Sino-US relations.

Editor: Jiang Xinying

Editor: Wang Jate

Image source: Internet