Arctic shipping route: breaking ice is easy, but melting ice is difficult
2024-08-10
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The picture shows an iceberg photographed in the Svalbard Islands, Norway on June 22. Xinhua News Agency
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Recently, the U.S. Department of Defense released the Arctic Strategy 2024. After the release of the strategic report, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathryn Hicks said that now is a "critical moment" for the Arctic, and climate change has fundamentally changed the Arctic, as well as geopolitics and the U.S. defense mission.
During the Cold War, due to its special geographical location, the Arctic became an important military strategic area and geopolitically sensitive area for the US-Soviet hegemony. After the end of the Cold War, the Arctic gradually changed from a place of confrontation to a place of peace. However, as the global climate continues to warm, the thickness of sea ice and the coverage of "multi-year ice" in the Arctic region have dropped sharply, and international navigation, energy extraction, commercial fishing, etc. in the Arctic route are expected to become a reality, which may bring huge benefits to the relevant countries.
However, the perspective of the relevant major powers on the Arctic has never been limited to shipping and fisheries. Looking at the evolution of the US Arctic strategy report, it can be found that the priority of the Arctic strategy in the US national strategy is becoming increasingly prominent. The United States has issued four "Arctic Policy Directives" in 1971, 1983, 1994 and 2009, and issued the first "National Strategy for the Arctic Region" in 2013. In the 2013 version of the US "Arctic Strategy", the Arctic is still positioned as a "peaceful, stable and conflict-free" region. By 2019, the US Department of Defense's Arctic Strategy defined the Arctic as a "potential strategic competition corridor" for the first time. The "Arctic Strategy 2024" even claims to expand the US military capabilities and surveillance activities in the Arctic region.
These changes have attracted the attention of Arctic countries and other Arctic stakeholders. In the future, the Arctic region will increasingly become a strategic location for multinational competition and a geopolitical hotspot.
The Arctic route is popular among countries
The Arctic sea ice is melting at an accelerated rate, and the ice-covered waters are shrinking, leading to the opening of the Arctic shipping routes.
As a potential shortcut connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the history of the Arctic route can be traced back to the European exploration period in the 16th century. However, it was not until the past two centuries, especially in the past few decades, that it was truly put on the road to scientific research and commercial use. Since the 20th century, scientists from various countries have turned their attention to this mysterious area. By monitoring the changes in Arctic sea ice, they have predicted the feasibility of navigation on the Arctic route, providing new possibilities for commercial shipping. Its value can be called "the Suez Canal and Panama Canal of the 21st century."
The Arctic routes mainly include the Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage and the Central Passage that passes through the North Pole. Among the three routes, the Northeast Passage is currently the most concerned by all parties. This route is also the shortest sea route connecting Europe and Asia.
The so-called "Northeast" and "Northwest" take the Atlantic Ocean as the coordinate origin. The Northeast Passage bypasses the northern part of Siberia. It starts from the Barents Sea, passes through the northern part of Eurasia, and crosses the Bering Strait to reach the Pacific Ocean; the Northwest Passage bypasses northern Canada. It starts from the Davis Strait, passes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the northern part of Alaska, and crosses the Bering Strait to reach the Pacific Ocean.
In terms of maritime transport efficiency, the Arctic route saves 9 to 15 days of sailing compared to traditional routes, and can also avoid security threats in the Strait of Malacca, the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden, Somalia and other regions. Therefore, the use of the Arctic route has both long-term strategic significance and practical commercial benefits.
For China, the Northeast Passage is of greater significance and is most likely to become an important supplementary route for my country's joint construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative. Currently, the shortest route from China to Europe passes through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal, a distance of about 10,000 nautical miles. The Arctic Northeast Passage shortens this distance to about 7,000 nautical miles, a full 3,000 nautical miles less.
The distance is greatly shortened, and the resulting economic benefits are obvious. Therefore, even if the Northeast Passage is only opened in stages in the summer, it has attracted many countries to develop the route. Late September each year is the time when the sea ice area is the smallest. The "shipping season" of the Northeast Passage is concentrated in the summer and autumn ice melting season (July-October), and icebreakers are needed to escort at other times. Arctic expert Kuvarova predicts that as the sea ice melts further, shorter routes through the Arctic may appear, and by 2040, the Arctic Ocean route will not even need to use icebreakers in the summer.
In Russia, the "Northeast Passage" is more commonly known as the "Northern Passage", and most of its sections are located in the Arctic Ocean off the northern coast of Russia. During the Soviet era, the Northern Sea Route was highly valued and developed. At its peak in 1987, a total of 331 ships sailed through the Northern Sea Route. The Northern Sea Route section of the Northeast Passage has always been used as an internal route of the Soviet Union. It was not until 1991 that this section was opened to foreign countries. Hubert, an American expert on Arctic issues, believes that compared with other Arctic countries, Arctic route transportation is more important to Russia, because 20% of Russia's territory is located within the Arctic Circle, and about 30% of its GDP is generated in the Arctic, while other countries hardly exploit oil and natural gas in their Arctic regions.
US, Japan, and Finland form icebreaker alliance
Western sea power theory has always believed that sea power is the decisive factor in the rise and fall of a country. A country that obtains sea power or controls the key points of the sea will grasp the "historical initiative". At present, the "accelerated" Arctic route has also intensified the competition among countries in the Arctic. The control of important navigation spaces such as the Arctic sea routes (the main sea routes between ports for trade, logistics and military) will determine the maritime dynamics in the next few decades.
"NATO has a vital interest in maintaining and strengthening the rules-based order in the Arctic, including open sea routes, protecting the transatlantic network of communications cables, and preventing Russia from exercising unilateral military control over the region," said a 2021 report published by the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs Review.
Walter Burbrick, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College and director of the Arctic Research Group, said that the volume of maritime trade is expected to double in the next 20 years, and the shrinking of the Arctic ice sheet will attract the attention of more countries. He believes that the U.S. Navy should strengthen its projection capabilities in the Arctic in order to gain advantages in other places such as the Pacific and Atlantic.
In order to enhance the utilization of the new Arctic route, the US government is eager to enhance the strength of its icebreaker fleet. On July 11 this year, the White House issued a statement saying that the United States, Canada, and Finland will formulate a trilateral agreement on the "Icebreaker Cooperation Program". According to the US statement, this cooperation will strengthen the shipbuilding and industrial capabilities, and establish closer security and economic ties through information exchange and the joint development of the workforce. The three countries plan to sign the agreement by the end of this year, with an estimated investment of US$10 billion. Experts analyzed that this agreement aims to enhance the US shipbuilding capacity to supply the global market, and in the future it will compete for more icebreaker orders worldwide. At the same time, it will also build a world-class polar icebreaker fleet and strengthen military presence in the polar region.
The icebreaker cooperation agreement was announced at the NATO summit in Washington. It is the second trilateral partnership related to maritime technology and production announced by the Biden administration since the establishment of the U.S.-UK-Australia trilateral security partnership with the United Kingdom and Australia in 2021. Business Insider previously reported that the United States is trying to restore its military capabilities in the Arctic to confront Russia and China in the region. Washington hopes to strengthen its "forces that began to shrink more than 20 years ago" in the Arctic.
Analysts here said that overall, the US Arctic strategic shift has already been revealed and is ready to go, targeting the Arctic powers. On the one hand, the Arctic is located at the top of the arc of the northern hemisphere, where Asia, Europe and North America meet, and has been a "battlefield" since World War II. On the other hand, the United States may regain the "freedom of navigation" stick to safeguard its navigation rights in the Northern Passage and the Northwest Passage, forcing Canada and Russia to keep the Arctic routes open.
Igor Korotchenko, a well-known Russian military analyst and editor-in-chief of National Defense magazine, believes that the United States and NATO regard the Arctic as a new military operation zone after the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, but Russia has a key advantage - it has a fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers that sail on the Northern Sea Route all year round and has been developing and constructing the Arctic region since 1922.
Russia is the only country in the world that owns and is capable of building nuclear-powered icebreakers, and currently has a total of seven nuclear-powered icebreakers. Many countries are also conducting research and development of nuclear-powered icebreakers. Since the Trump administration, the United States has been trying to purchase nuclear-powered icebreakers to fill the gap in this regard. In 2020, Vyacheslav Ruksha, director of the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration, said in an interview with the Norwegian Barents Observer that by 2035, the Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet will have 13 large icebreakers to ensure year-round navigation from Russia's northern coast to Asia. Although the West has since increased sanctions on Russia under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, delaying some Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker construction projects, Russia still has five nuclear-powered icebreakers under planning and construction.
Geopolitics still needs to "thaw"
Unlike ordinary ice-class cargo ships, icebreakers are service ships used to open waterways and protect ships. Icebreakers can break ice on the water surface to ensure that ships can enter and exit frozen ports and anchorages, or guide ships to sail in ice areas. They can be divided into river, lake, harbor or ocean icebreakers. Russia has a long history and strong technology in the design and construction of icebreakers.
The first polar icebreaker was the Yermak, designed by Russians and built by Britain for Russia in 1899. In the early 20th century, Russia became the leader in the development of the Arctic Ocean with the help of icebreakers.
According to data from Clarksons Research, the countries with the largest number of icebreakers in the current fleet are Russia, Finland, Sweden and Poland, with 42, 7, 6 and 6 icebreakers respectively; the current icebreakers are mainly built by Finland and Russia, with 40 and 19 icebreakers respectively. The United States currently has only two icebreakers - the Polaris and the Healy. Among them, the heavy icebreaker Polaris has a history of 50 years and is currently in overdue service. A senior US government official revealed: "The United States and its allies hope to have 70 to 90 icebreakers in the next 10 years." It can be seen that as an important platform for participating in Arctic affairs, the United States is paying more and more attention to icebreakers.
Every winter, when the Baltic Sea freezes over, Finland's foreign trade depends largely on winter shipping. Icebreakers are essential tools that keep ports and sea routes open. This is also an important reason why Finland's icebreaking technology has developed to the world's leading level in the past few decades. About 80% of the world's icebreakers are designed by Finnish companies, and about 60% of icebreakers are built in Finnish shipyards.
The Finnish media Helsingin Daily commented that Finland should be happy about the trilateral agreement on the "Icebreaker Cooperation Program". Because the United States has admitted that it does not have the ability to quickly build icebreakers, and Finland has the world's top icebreaker construction technology, it can provide technical assistance to ships manufactured in the United States and Canada and provide modern equipment for its shipyards. For Finland, the agreement means huge commercial benefits and brings new opportunities to the Finnish shipping industry and shipyards. In addition, the agreement also plays an important role in geopolitics because it is an open alliance of three countries. For decades, Finland has been trying to reach an agreement with the United States on icebreaker cooperation, but progress has been slow, and Finland's NATO membership last year has accelerated the process of cooperation.
The United States and its allies are secretly competing with Russia in icebreaker construction, which seems to be a microcosm of the current frozen relations between the West and Russia. As resource exploitation and the opening of waterways bring about conflicts of interest, the Arctic region may become the focus of international tensions. Environmental changes, waterway utilization, resource exploration, etc. in the Arctic are related to the common survival and development of people in all countries in the world. How to protect, explore and understand the Arctic should become an important direction for countries to carry out activities in the region, but the current situation seems to be "going in the opposite direction."
Will the icebreakers sail towards the mysterious "Sea of Peace" waiting to be explored, or the gunpowder-filled "Sea of Interests", perhaps leading to completely different futures.
(Reporters Deng Yufei and Wang Yuxinhong)
