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Since the beginning of the year, the new energy vehicle market has seen wave after wave of price cuts.BYDReleased the Honor Edition with a starting price of only 79,800 yuanBYD Qin PLUS, marking the end of the era of "the same price for oil and electricity" and the beginning of a price war where "electricity is cheaper than oil".Nezha Car、Wuling、Changan Qiyuan、Chery、SAIC Volkswagen、Zhiji、XiaopengBrands such as eBay have joined in and launched price reduction promotions.

According to a research report by Tianfeng Securities, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the 250,000 to 300,000 yuan range is the highest, reaching 61%. The second is the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan range, with a penetration rate of 42%. It is followed by the 300,000 yuan and above range, with a penetration rate of 41%. Then the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan range, with a penetration rate of 29%, and finally the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan range, with a penetration rate of 26%.

This shows that the 100,000-200,000 yuan segment will become the main growth space for new energy vehicles in the future, and various brands are competing to lower prices to gain market share.

Will such a massive price reduction trend really encourage more consumers to buy new energy vehicles at this time?

In order to get the answer to this question, the author conducted a market survey through snowball sampling, and finally obtained 95 valid questionnaires. The survey results show that there is no significant correlation between the price reduction trend and the willingness to buy. "I would rather buy a fuel car than a new energy car" and "Wait a little longer, no rush" frequently appear in the respondents' answers.

The fact that the large-scale price cuts in the industry have not led to a substantial increase in the demand for new energy vehicles does not seem to conform to the usual market rules. What exactly caused this phenomenon is intriguing.

"New Energy" is still a knowledge blind spot

Consumers’ awareness is an important factor in determining whether they will buy new energy vehicles. Survey data shows that 45% of respondents have never bought a new energy vehicle and do not know much about it.

It is reported that the "Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" issued by the State Council in 2009 first proposed the goal of large-scale development of new energy vehicles. Compared with the long history of fuel vehicles, the development of new energy vehicles in China has only been less than 15 years.

At the same time, the manufacturing technology of new energy vehicles is also more novel and complex. From battery technology, motor drive to charging methods, there is a certain degree of cognitive threshold. When the survey asked "what are the concerns about buying new energy vehicles", four respondents gave answers similar to "I don't understand so I don't buy".

Some interviewees even said that the new energy vehicle industry is actually a "half-baked car company" with inadequate technology that cannot be compared with fuel vehicles, so of course they will not buy them.

It is easy to buy a car but difficult to maintain it, and the cost-effectiveness is questionable

Although the industry's price cuts have given new energy vehicles an upper hand in terms of purchase costs, it is easy to buy a car but difficult to maintain it, and new energy vehicles generally have the common problem of "expensive maintenance".

Survey data shows that about 1/4 of the respondents believe that the maintenance costs of new energy vehicles are too high and they are not suitable for purchase; while more than 2/3 of the respondents further pointed out that new energy vehicles have problems such as "inconvenient charging" and "average battery life", which makes them hesitate to buy such vehicles.

Compared with new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles have a long history of development and maintain relatively stable advantages in the above aspects: complete gas station infrastructure, generally excellent endurance, long component life... In terms of cost-effectiveness, fuel vehicles can be regarded as the "white moonlight" in the minds of more consumers.

Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, once said that judging from the current trend, the attributes of new energy vehicles have changed. When they have consumer attributes, people should not pursue their value preservation too much, but their use value. However, it is difficult to know whether Volkswagen has the same idea.

Suffering a loss is not a blessing, the "wait and see party" will win

"New energy vehicles have dropped in price, is now a good time to buy?" Posts like this are not uncommon on the Internet. The answer given is usually "wait a little longer." In our survey results, nearly 70% of people gave the same answer.

Buying too early will lead to "backstab", this is the first explanation given by the "wait and see" party. Recently, a car owner complained that he spent

263,900 yuan to buy aTesla Model YHowever, less than a week after picking up the car, I found that the price of the car had dropped by 14,000 yuan and it was impossible to insure it.

According to public information, nearly 40 auto brands have announced discounts, subsidies or price cuts since April 2024. The ever-changing market conditions make it difficult for people to judge the rationality of buying a car at the moment, and for a while they suppress the urge to pay.

In addition, many consumers believe that the price cuts will not only bring about the unpredictability of the new energy vehicle industry, but will also force the price of the fuel vehicle industry to involute. Survey data shows that 64% of the respondents do not have the position of "must buy this type of car". They believe that the battlefield of this price war will expand to the entire automotive industry, and then they can choose the best one to buy under the idea of ​​"choose the best of the two".

One of the "wait and see" members wrote in his answer: "It won't be too late to buy after the prices of cars in the entire industry come down."

Price involution - a new way out for the new energy vehicle industry?

The overall price of new energy vehicles has plunged into a price-cutting spiral for the entire industry. Although low-price competition strategies can boost sales, accelerate technological innovation, and improve the efficiency of the industrial chain in a short period of time, from a macro perspective, can low-price competition really expand consumers' willingness to buy?

According to the survey data, 68% of the respondents said that in the face of a sharp price cut for new energy vehicles, even if they have the conditions to buy a car, they will still choose to "wait a little longer". 64.71% of the respondents said that they hope to see the industry's internal competition force oil cars to reduce prices, and then make a choice after multiple comparisons. This is also the main reason why most people choose to wait and see. There are also 38.24% of the respondents who are worried that buying new energy vehicles too early will be backstabbed by subsequent lower prices. It can be seen that price cuts on the supply side are difficult to have an immediate impact on consumers.

This is the case for consumers, and the impact on the companies themselves is even more obvious. Recently, the leading new energy vehicle companiesTesla CEO Musk issued an internal letter saying that 10% of the global workforce will be laid off. The scale of the layoffs and the wide range of personnel involved can be called "unprecedented". Tesla China also responded to the call from the headquarters, and the "layoff knife" was not only wielded in core departments such as assembly, welding, and batteries, but also canceled all offers for fresh graduates a few days ago, which once triggered a hot search on Weibo.

Price cuts should have benefited both companies and consumers, but now it seems to be going against the original intention. In this case, what is the future of new energy vehicles?

Outward and vertical expansion, new energy vehicles have more possibilities

When the involution situation cannot be sustained, turning to outvolution may be a viable strategic choice. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2023, the number of new energy vehicle exports reached 1.091 million, an increase of 83.5% year-on-year. Among the top ten companies in vehicle exports, BYD exported 216,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 360%; Chery exported 837,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 110%;Great Wall283,000 vehicles were exported, up 84.8% year-on-year. Chang'anThe data of brands such as and others also performed well.

At the same time, market segmentation has also become another way for the new energy vehicle industry to break through the "price reduction puzzle". In 2024, new energy vehicle manufacturers will focus more on market segments. For example, new energy SUVs in the 150,000 to 300,000 yuan range, new energy off-road vehicles, new energy vehicles for women specifically for women, and new energy vehicles for commuting that focus on the sinking market in third- and fourth-tier cities. Through the refinement of functions, prices, and market positioning, they will find their own comfort zone, build the right market segment, lock in the right competitors, and win the minds of users. For example,BYD Hiace 07、Ideal L6、ZeekrCX1E、Geely GalaxyThe SUV market in the 150,000 to 300,000 yuan range, such as L5, is highly competitive.Tank 300 Hi4-T、Equation Leopard3. In-depth exploration of the hard-core off-road market segment.

Among the 95 valid questionnaires collected, the respondents' expectations for the prospects of the new energy vehicle industry reached 3.82 points (out of a maximum of 5 points), which to a certain extent shows that consumers are still full of confidence in the future of the new energy vehicle industry. As the competition in the new energy vehicle market further intensifies. After the big reshuffle, will the strong become stronger, or will new forces emerge? Time will tell us the answer.

Authors: Chen Shi, Master of Journalism and Communication, Fudan University (Class of 2023); Cheng Lei, Master of Journalism and Communication, Fudan University (Class of 2023); Li Mingyao, Master of Journalism and Communication, Fudan University (Class of 2023)

This article only reflects the author’s views.