2024-10-07
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in the long history of the automobile industry, fuel vehicles have long dominated the market with their stable performance and mature technology. however, with the rise of new energy vehicles, the status of fuel vehicles is gradually being challenged. the constant pessimism in the market seems to herald the decline of the fuel era.
is this really the case? let us go back to the moment before the wave came and explore the evolution of the future automobile market in the echoes of history.
according to the sales data list of fuel-powered models in august (list data source: passenger car association, china automobile association), there are 29 models with sales exceeding 10,000 in a single month, among which volkswagenlavidasales volume ranked first, with 28,542 units sold, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%;nissan sylphyit ranked second with 23,803 units sold, a year-on-year decrease of 27.6%. in addition, there are 11 models with sales of less than 10,000 in a single month. they were once sacred cars.wuling hongguang ssales are at the bottom, with sales now only 6,978 units, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 20%.
the life of traditional fuel vehicles is becoming increasingly difficult.
overall, the models involved in the sales data list have not changed much, and they are still dominated by traditional popular models, such as lavida, sylphy,passat、sagitarwait. however, careful analysis shows that some old faces have withdrawn from the forefront of the team, such as the sales number one for 103 consecutive months.haval h6, once a best-sellerfitand yinglang did not appear on the list.
correspondingly, in august this year, haval h6 sold only 5,807 units, fit sold only 875 units, and yinglang not only left the team, but also stopped production and sales in china.
in addition, in the overall automobile sales list, traditional fuel vehicles also show a trend of being suppressed by new energy vehicles. they are no longer at the top of the major lists and can only maintain the momentum of sales exceeding 10,000.
in fact, looking back at the changes in the automobile market in recent years, we can clearly see that long before the arrival of the new energy wave, the market had already shown faint signs of the decline of fuel vehicles.
march 2021,volvowhen launching the xc40 pure electric version, it shouted the slogan of "same price for petrol and electricity". volvo set the official direct price of the xc40 pure electric version starting at 299,000 yuan, which was consistent with the price of the xc40 fuel model at the time.
the purpose of launching this pricing strategy was to lower the threshold for consumers to purchase new energy models. however, due to factors such as subsidy policies and battery costs at the time, the strategy of "same price for petrol and electricity" did not cause controversy in the market. too big a ripple.
it was not until 2023 that the "same price for oil and electricity" strategy attracted the attention of leading manufacturers. february 2023,bydhigh-profile slogan "the price of oil and electricity is the same, subverting fuel" and launchedqin plus dm-i the championship version is priced at 99,800 yuan. the price has dropped to less than 100,000 yuan for the first time. this exaggerated price has brought great shock to the market.
statistics show that the 2023 qin plus dm-i championship edition, which has been on the market for only 5 days and is sold starting at 99,800 yuan, has exceeded 25,000 orders. in other words, if we estimate based on the 1,431 byd dynasty sales channels nationwide at that time, the average daily order volume for a single store was about 4 vehicles.
since then, the concept of "same price for gasoline and electricity" has begun to be favored by more car companies. many leading new energy manufacturers have reduced the prices of new energy models significantly through economies of scale and technological breakthroughs.
the war between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles has also erupted smoothly.
the battle between oil and electricity has lasted for several years, and the fuel vehicle camp has been defeated by new energy vehicles. by 2024, market sales will reach a landmark watershed.
according to data from the passenger car association, passenger car sales in august this year were 1.744 million, of which 795,000 were traditional fuel passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. as for new energy vehicles, the retail penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles was it has reached 53.9%, a new monthly penetration rate, an increase of 16.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
data and market information seem to be transmitting such a signal: "the demise of fuel vehicles is an indisputable fact."
in august this year, the ministry of industry and information technology released the "passenger vehicle fuel consumption evaluation methods and indicators" for public comment. by 2026, wltc fuel consumption of models between 1.09 tons and 2.51 tons must be controlled within 3.3 liters per 100 kilometers; exceeding for a 2.51-ton model, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers needs to be controlled at 4.7 liters; for a vehicle under 1.09 tons, the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers needs to be as low as 2.57 liters.
as a result, the discussion on the fate of fuel vehicles has once again reached a climax on the internet, and many kols have made statements such as "the end of fuel vehicles is coming" and "the sky is falling for fuel vehicles" to gain traffic.
in this context, in order to maintain market share, fuel vehicles have to adopt a more radical "price-for-volume" market strategy to compete with new energy vehicles. on the basis of "the same price for oil and electricity", we will further intensify the price war and strive to achieve a market structure in which "oil is cheaper than electricity".
the price of independent a-class new energy sedans has been reduced from 99,800 to 79,800, and fuel models will be given more price concessions. for example, the corresponding fuel models of the same class, arrizo 5, emgrand, mg5, etc., will directly start from 79,800. the selling price was raised to just over fifty thousand.
among them, the starting price of the new mg5 has dropped directly to the 60,000 level. it is equipped with a 1.5t engine. its zero-to-zero acceleration has surpassed the electric car to become the first in the 100,000-level acceleration to 100 kilometers. it also has good control performance. it was unimaginable in the past to create a fuel vehicle with a price of only tens of thousands of yuan with such care and apply a series of power configurations that were rarely seen in 100,000-class models.
on the other hand, the prices of traditional fuel vehicles of joint venture brands such as lavida, sylphy, and civic have also been cut in half. the starting price of the terminal is only about 80,000 yuan, which means that with a car purchase budget of 100,000 yuan, you can easily buy models that could only be bought for 150,000 yuan in the past.
even more exaggerated is the b-class traditional fuel sedan market, such as the accord, camry, passat pro, teana and other models, with starting prices reaching 150,000. among them, teana is even more ruthless, directly launching a genuine version of 129,800, which is equivalent to buying it with the previous price. for the price of a joint venture a-class sedan, you can now enjoy the experience of a joint venture b-class sedan.
from a macro perspective, global new energy vehicle sales in the first half of this year were 7.538 million units, with a penetration rate of 17.5%; of which domestic new energy vehicle sales were 4.944 million units, with a penetration rate of 35.2%, accounting for 65.8% of the global new energy vehicle market share, that is to say, domestic new energy sales account for the majority of global total sales.
in the us market, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year was 768,400 units, with a penetration rate of 9.2%; in germany, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year was 273,300 units, with a penetration rate of 16.6%; in the uk, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year was 255,900 units. the penetration rate is 21.5%.
among them, norway has the highest penetration rate, reaching 66.8%. however, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year was only 54,100 vehicles, which was not enough for the single-month sales of the domestic leading independent brands.
from the perspective of the international market, the overall automobile sales volume and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles show an inverse trend. the larger the market base, the smaller the penetration rate; the smaller the market base, the greater the penetration rate. therefore, looking at the penetration rate of new energy vehicles alone is not enough to directly "sentence death" to traditional fuel vehicles.
in addition, even though car companies plan to launch dozens of new electric vehicles in the next few years, the proportion of consumers considering buying an electric vehicle is declining.
consulting firm ey recently released its latest mobility consumer index, which surveyed nearly 20,000 consumers in 28 countries on their car purchase intentions, focusing on u.s. buyers and their attitudes toward electric vehicles.
according to the survey results, only 11% of u.s. consumers who plan to buy a new car in the next 24 months express their intention to buy an electric car. this number is down from 22% in 2023. if electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (phev) are added together, purchase intention also dropped from 48% last year to 34%.
a survey conducted by edmunds, an american automotive information resource company, in january this year showed that 23% of car buyers said they did not like electric vehicles. the last time the company asked this question (april 2023), only 19% said they disliked electric vehicles.
jessica caldwell, director of industry analysis for edmunds automotive, said there are many reasons why consumers are reluctant to buy electric vehicles, including price, difficulty charging for long-distance travel, and a lack of models from trusted automakers. she also pointed out that when buying cars using new technology, consumers tend to choose brands they have trusted for many years.
in terms of domestic policies, the "passenger vehicle fuel consumption evaluation methods and indicators" issued by the ministry of industry and information technology is currently only in the public solicitation stage and is still a long way from being truly implemented.
in other words, the pessimism of traditional fuel vehicles by kols on the internet is groundless, and it is more to gain traffic; even if the policy is actually implemented, it may not be so strict. the automobile industry is one of the economic lifeblood of the country. it is not a good thing to be drastic. generally, "gentle" methods are adopted.
not only is the price reduced, traditional fuel vehicles have also begun to make efforts to supplement intelligent configurations. many configurations that were previously only available on new energy vehicles are now simultaneously reflected in fuel models, and there are even many that can be used in terms of experience. catching up with new energy vehicles of the same class.
new energy vehicles are equipped with comfortable configurations, and fuel vehicles are also keeping up.more and more fuel vehicles are equipped with smart vehicle systems, providing users with mobile phone interconnection, voice control and other functions. in addition, driving assistance functions such as adaptive cruise and lane keeping that were previously only found in high-end fuel vehicles have now been gradually decentralized to mid- to low-end models, and even many 100,000-class fuel vehicles have begun to be equipped with these functions. take some recently launched new cars as examples, such as chery tiggo 8l, changan cs75 plus, beijing hyundai fifth-generation tucson l and other models. they have begun to focus on integrating zero-gravity seats, seat ventilation and heating massage, and large central control screens into the cars. , ai large model voice assistant and other modern elements to meet consumers’ pursuit of comfort.
new energy vehicles are equipped with smart driving configurations, and fuel vehicles are also following suit.previously, new energy vehicles have been in a leading position in smart driving, while fuel vehicles were relatively weak in this aspect. however, now more and more fuel vehicles are beginning to focus on intelligent driving, and some driving assistance functions have gradually become common configurations of fuel vehicles. for example, volkswagen and honda have made key upgrades in intelligent driving when launching a new generation of mainstream models. by equipping them with new intelligent assisted driving systems, they can achieve l2 level driving assistance functions.
new energy vehicles have rolled out their chassis, and fuel vehicles have followed suit.more and more fuel vehicles are beginning to focus on improving chassis technology, and some fuel vehicles are beginning to be equipped with variable damping suspension technology to improve vehicle comfort and handling. for example, the new cadillac xt5 of the joint venture brand and the 2025 geely xingyue l of the independent brand are equipped with a variable damping suspension system, which can automatically adjust the suspension hardness according to road conditions to provide drivers with a smoother and more comfortable driving experience.
it can be seen that these configurations that were previously exclusive to new energy vehicles have now begun to gradually appear on traditional fuel vehicles, and fuel vehicles are taking small steps to make up for their competitiveness.
new energy vehicles are not perfect. there are still a series of disadvantages under the current technical background. for example, due to battery characteristics, the battery life of new energy vehicles is seriously affected by temperature and climate, and they have even been unable to be promoted in some northern cities.
on the other hand, pure electric anxiety has also been criticized. even though various brands have launched various advanced fast charging technologies, and the popularity of charging stations is also increasing visibly, it is still difficult to break users’ charging anxiety. perhaps only the speed and popularity of charging stations can truly it can only be completely eliminated when it is equivalent to the size of a fuel vehicle.
during holidays, queuing up in high-speed service areas for charging has almost become a hurdle that new energy car owners cannot get around. even electric car owners quarreling over charging piles has become a holiday repertoire.
according to public information from the people's data institute, among the problems encountered by china's new energy vehicles on their way back home during the spring festival in 2023, "difficulty in charging, long queues, and unable to find charging piles" accounted for 69.4%. there are even new energy car owners charging at the high-speed service area during the may day holiday, and the single queue time is as long as 2.7 hours.
data source: people's data research institute compiled based on public information
this phenomenon exposes the severe challenges faced by new energy vehicles in the energy replenishment process, and behind it is a series of charging infrastructure problems.
according to the latest data from the china charging alliance, as of the end of august 2024, there were 10.999 million charging piles nationwide, including 3.263 million public charging piles and 7.736 million private charging piles. comparing the growth rates of charging infrastructure and electric vehicles, from january to august 2024, the increase in charging infrastructure was 2.403 million units, domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 6.219 million units, and the vehicle-to-pile incremental ratio was 2.6:1, which is also that is to say, on average, every 2.6 vehicles are allocated 1 charging pile.
although the construction of charging infrastructure has basically been able to keep up with the development speed of new energy vehicles, there are still two core issues that cannot be ignored. one is the uneven development of charging infrastructure, and the other is the problem of obstruction in the installation of private charging piles.
secondly, the problem of uneven distribution of charging piles still exists.
in high-speed service areas or some popular attractions during holidays, whether it is personal experience or media communication, we often see that charging stations are hard to find, while in other areas charging piles are idle for a long time and no one is there. use. this uneven distribution of charging resources not only affects the travel experience of new energy vehicle owners, but also restricts the further development of the new energy vehicle industry to a certain extent.
total number of public charging piles in various provinces across the country in august, source: china charging alliance
according to the latest data released by the china charging alliance, the proportion of public charging piles built in the top 10 regions of guangdong, zhejiang, jiangsu, shanghai, shandong, hubei, henan, anhui, beijing, and sichuan accounts for 69.4%, of which guangdong province alone has nearly 630,000 charging piles. in contrast, in places such as guizhou and jiangxi, the total share is only 50,000 units each, and in liaoning province it is less than 30,000 units.
finally, the installation problem of private charging piles is still highlighted.during the installation process of private charging piles, owners often face problems such as disagreements with property owners and cumbersome procedures, resulting in a relatively low penetration rate of private charging piles.
according to the "survey report on new energy electric vehicle consumption and public charging pile usage" released by the china consumers association, in first- and second-tier cities, the proportion of new energy vehicle users who cannot install private charging piles accounts for as high as 71.6%.
it is understood that some residential properties refuse owners' installation requests due to insufficient power capacity, safety hazards and other reasons. this situation is particularly common in old communities. the construction of power infrastructure in old communities is relatively lagging behind, and it is difficult to transform the power grid to meet the charging needs of a large number of new energy vehicles. even if the power conditions of the community permit, some properties will set up cumbersome approval processes, requiring owners to provide a variety of certification materials, such as parking space ownership certificates, car purchase contracts, charging pile product qualification certificates, etc., which undoubtedly increases the difficulty and time cost of installation.
from this point of view, traditional fuel vehicles still have irreplaceable qualities. a series of price-for-volume policies does not mean that fuel vehicles have reached the end of their strength, but that they are making huge product innovations in response to the market and preparing for the next decade.
the era of fuel vehicles is far from over. instead, they form a diversified automobile market with new energy vehicles to meet consumers' different car purchasing needs. they are both important parts of the market, competing with each other and making progress with each other. it’s just that some car companies and kols deliberately set traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles as opposites, depicting the two as black and white in order to attract attention, gain traffic, and create anxiety among consumers.
of course, under the general trend of electrification, it is impossible for all traditional fuel vehicles to survive. according to the current market situation and the development routes of various car companies, let us wait and see which traditional car companies can survive longer in the future.
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