news

recently, the policies of all parties have been really strong, and the property and stock markets have exploded overnight.

suddenly, good news about the property and stock markets can be heard in the streets and alleys.

especially in the property market, policies are coming out one after another. the existing housing loans that many people are most concerned about and the latest big moves in first-tier cities have new settings.

but i have been paying attention to a new trend, which is also an option problem that everyone may face next, large apartments.

this year, many cities have introduced policies to encourage the purchase of large-area housing. behind the policies, they reflect the changes in industry development.

on the one hand, residents’ incomes are increasing and their demand for living space is increasing. large-area residences have gradually become the home purchase choice for many families.

on the other hand, the policy aims to reduce the financial pressure on home buyers by reducing the tax on large-scale residential purchases, providing discounts for first-time buyers, and increasing home purchase subsidies.

policies are following up, and the market is making practical responses.

for example, in recent years, high-end improvement products are gradually leading the market.

in terms of total volume, the proportion of guangzhou's multi-million-dollar luxury housing transactions in the city's transaction area has climbed from 5% in 2021 to 13% this year.

data source: hefu research

while the proportion of multi-million-dollar luxury homes in guangzhou is increasing, during the national day golden week,"shanghai seven articles"after the implementation, the sales response of multiple sales offices in songjiang, baoshan and pudong new areas of shanghai has been that many properties have welcomed "new faces", large-sized properties are more popular, and the 7-day reception quota of some sales offices has been fully booked.

just in the past september, market statistics showed that the sales of luxury homes in shanghai reached 40 billion. if we look at the first half of the year, according to cric data, 1,544 new luxury homes with a total price of 30 million+ were sold in the first half of the year, a record-breaking transaction scale. the highest in the past 10 years.

shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen have followed suit. beijing has also recently introduced new policies, announcing that the standards for ordinary housing and non-common housing that have been implemented for many years will be cancelled. to put it bluntly, it is to encourage large-scale housing transactions.

obviously, the property market has transformed from a fast-paced development to a slow-cycle product.

in the slow cycle era, people's demand for houses is mainly based on comfort. in the past few years, the popularity of three-bedroom and above apartments in shanghai has continued to increase. in particular, three-bedroom apartments accounted for 63% of the total number of transactions, making it the absolute main force in the market.

there are fewer and fewer new small-family houses, and one-bedroom apartments have basically withdrawn from the market.

more and more home buyers’ preference for new home products has shifted from the original “small-sized houses that are just needed” to “medium-to-large-sized houses”.

this phenomenon is actually easy to understand. since the three-child policy was liberalized, more and more families have two or three children, which has also prompted changes in everyone's demand for buying houses. of course, many families themselves do not blindly pursue compact apartments as in the past, but prefer more spacious and comfortable spaces.

this year, i continued to conduct in-depth research on many house types in the front line, and found an interesting phenomenon. the unit price of large houses is much higher than that of small houses, and large houses in first-tier cities like shanghai have to be competed for.

you must know that in the past era of urgent demand, the unit price of small apartments was generally higher than that of large apartments, because the demand for small apartments was greater and more suitable for first-time home buyers to "get on the road"; however, in recent years, the pricing strategy of the property market has quietly changed , now the unit prices of large apartments in most real estate projects are set higher than those of small apartments, and they can be sold out earlier.

obviously, the market is quietly changing, and the era of large apartments is coming.

regardless of the data, real estate sales are currently sluggish, but large-scale apartments in core cities have emerged from a structurally strong market.

not long ago, the four major first-tier cities and some core cities have introduced new policies to encourage the transaction of large-scale properties and encourage real estate companies to develop larger-area housing products.

according to a report by anjuke research institute, from january to august 2024, the number of transactions of rigid-demand products below 90 square meters in shanghai has declined, while the proportion of real estate transactions between 90 and 200 square meters has remained at a high level, with 200 square meters the proportion of transactions of the above large apartments has increased significantly.

on september 20, the beijing municipal party committee issued some new guidance, which mentioned the need to adjust real estate policies and may cancel the classification standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. last year, beijing made adjustments to the standards for ordinary housing, such as raising the upper limit for a single house from 140 square meters to 144 square meters and removing the total price limit.

about a month ago, shanghai also made adjustments to the "7090" policy that had been implemented for 18 years. the so-called "7090" policy originated from the "several opinions on implementing the structural proportion requirements for newly built housing" issued by the ministry of housing and urban-rural development in 2006. it is clarified that the proportion of the total construction area of ​​commercial housing below 90 square meters must reach more than 70%.

data source: cric china real estate decision-making system

the latest notice clarifies that the building area standards for small and medium-sized commercial housing in shanghai's multi-story, small high-rise, and high-rise buildings are adjusted to 100 square meters, 110 square meters, and 120 square meters respectively. this standard is 10 to 100 square meters more than the original standard. 20 square meters.

in terms of the supply ratio of small and medium-sized housing, the area between the middle and outer rings should not be less than 70%, and the area within the middle ring should not be less than 60%.

obviously, this standard has been raised now, which means that the "7090" policy has become a thing of the past in shanghai.

in the future, more large-scale residences will enter the market.

in the past, the extreme supply of small apartments caused many problems. most of the developers' designs were the same, with no novel products and only a lack of focus.

for those who want small apartments, they are not the final destination for home purchase. if they want to improve their homes, they will eventually choose a house with an area of ​​more than 120 square meters.

in the new generation of housing demand, only by changing the unit type products, starting from actual demand and implementing it in supply, can we be a "long-term medicine".

for the property market, there is no longer a need for so many small-area supplies, and the era of large apartments is on the rise.

of course, this does not mean that small houses will be killed with a hammer. the end of 7090 is just the end of the policy, not the extinction of small houses.

large apartments have a very large threshold in terms of rigid demand. from the perspective of asset pricing, the rarer and more expensive assets are, the better they can survive the cycle.

the anjuke research institute has recently studied the changes in supply and demand of apartment products in many core cities over the years. the data shows that shanghai’s new home market has gradually transformed into a market dominated by improvement-oriented groups. the supply and demand of newly renovated three-bedroom products in the new home market is overwhelming. the main force, luxury products with an area of ​​more than 140 square meters, has an explosive trend, and the sales cycle is relatively short.

in addition, i also shared with you in my previous report that the transaction volume of large-scale high-end residential properties in shanghai was very hot this year. in the first half of the year, a total of 1,544 large-scale high-end residential units with a total price of more than 30 million yuan were transacted in shanghai, which was the highest in the past 10 years.

china overseas shunchang jiuli's sales in one afternoon were approximately 19.65 billion, with an average sales volume of 93.57 million per minute, a unit price of 17.2 million, and all 512 units were sold out.

there are also hotels such as hong kong land kai yuen and poly expo tianyue, which are also very popular among customers.

these have actually shown that first-tier markets like shanghai have officially entered the era of large-scale apartment improvement.

in recent years, the real estate industry has gradually transformed from owning a house to living in a good house, and the demand for net worth people to eventually improve their own residence is still strong.

in addition, this year, policies have continued to increase and interest rates have continued to fall. many people believe that buying a house is not "consumption" but "saving" based on the need for asset preservation and appreciation.

good products in core cities are still an important way to buy houses to fight inflation, and luxury homes and large apartments in core areas are still scarce products in the market.