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may 19, 1999, is a day that many old investors will never forget.

on that day, the chinese stock market, which had been sluggish for two years, exploded in despair. in less than two months, the big a index rose from 1,047 points to 1,756 points, a dizzying rise.

because of that wave of market conditions, many old investors made up for years of losses in one fell swoop and rekindled their hopes.

24 years have passed, and history will happen again on september 26, 2024.

in just a few days, various sectors of the chinese stock market set new records for the largest single-day gains in history.

the trading volume of shanghai and shenzhen even exceeded 2.59 trillion in one day, setting the largest historical trading volume since the birth of a-shares.

many people describe that the current stock market situation has entered the "wu zetian widowhood stage" - losing li zhi (sanity).

there is a big difference between this round of bailouts and the one in 1999.

what drove the market in 1999 was thevariety show sharestechnology and internet stocks led by , shanghai merlin, and tsinghua tongfang led the gains.

but this time, securities and real estate were the first to start.

this logic is inseparable from the country's current intention to stimulate the stock and property markets.

in fact, in may of this year, policies were intensively introduced to stimulate real estate. at that time, many real estate stocks rose by more than 100%, but they quickly fell back.

immediately afterwards, housing prices dropped again.

falling house prices are a good thing for people who don't have cars, but from a consumption perspective, it's a big problem.

first of all, we need to know that china has a surplus of houses.

because many urban residents own three or four properties, for many families, buying a house has become a kind of savings and a habit.

so the real estate market is, to a large extent, a financial market.

since it is a financial market, once housing prices fall, we will face a problem: the wealth of all homeowners is shrinking.

after all, the majority of people own houses, and they are still the middle class who have the ability to consume.

what will these people do once their wealth shrinks?

involving oneself and working hard is one way to relieve one's anxiety, while at the same time scrimping on food and clothing and not daring to spend money.

the price index falling for consecutive months is a good proof.

therefore, boosting the stock market and helping house prices stop falling are the main themes of this wave of stimulus.

the stock market and real estate market are linked. the core method of this stimulus is to use strong policies to let people have money in their hands and dare to spend.

the stock market was directly shut down by the central bank, "500 billion is not enough, another 500 billion will be needed."

it can be said that it accurately distributes money to middle-class investors.

many investors have recovered a year's worth of capital in just a few days, and some even claim to have achieved financial freedom.

the three big positive lines have caused many people to subvert their three views, and suddenly changed from "black stocks" to "boasting".

during the national day, many managers of securities companies were busy - many new investors inquired about opening accounts, and there was too much business to handle.

confidence is an important source of the recovery of the stock market, and it is also the logic behind this surge in securities stocks.

on the other side, real estate has started more vigorously.

on the 26th, many new things appeared in the statements of the high-level meeting. for example, for real estate, it no longer mentioned "high-quality development", but directly "promoted the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", "we must respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, and reduce existing mortgage interest rates.”

regarding monetary policy, it is not "stable and precise", but clearly "implementing powerful interest rate cuts."

to put it bluntly, we must resolutely curb the downward trend of house prices and do everything possible to encourage everyone to buy a house.

on september 29, favorable policies were introduced intensively in the property market. three major first-tier cities collectively issued new policies for the property market, which basically clarified that the down payment is only 15%, and at the same time relaxed the purchase limit threshold.

based on this, hong kong real estate stocks on october 2 were like taking crazy pills.

many companies have increased by more than 100% in a single day, and some have even increased by 300%, or tripled in one day.

during this wave of gains, wu xiangjun noticed that the more real estate stocks whose performance had already exploded or were on the verge of thundering, the more violent they rose.

for examplesunac china, the revenue in the first half of this year was cut in half, and the company suffered a direct loss of 15 billion, buthong kong stockson october 2, the single-day increase was as high as 75%.

on the other hand, those who are profitable and financially healthylongfor group, the increase on the same day was only 24%.

why do real estate stocks with poor performance rise more fiercely? this is mainly because the stock price has fallen to the verge of breaking net, and capital is optimistic that these companies can come back to life. as the saying goes, "the bigger the storm, the more expensive the fish."

however, can the increase in stock prices really bring these real estate companies back to life quickly?

we also need to analyze the fundamentals of the current property market.

although the stock market is a barometer of the economy, reality often differs.

for example, in recent years, the german dax has risen from 8,800 points to 10,000 points, and the nikkei has directly doubled. these are out of touch with the fundamentals of economic operation (their gdp growth is not fast).

specific to the property market, this is also the case at present.

although after september 30, real estate markets in various places have received signs of recovery. for example, two luxury houses with a unit price of 150,000 yuan in shanghai's "green lake world" were sold out in one day. a real estate transaction in guangzhou reached 350 million yuan in one day. wait in line for half an hour.

however, judging from the interviews conducted by some front-line reporters, the recovery of the property market may be lower than expected.

a reporter from shell finance conducted an on-site investigation and found out that the rumor on the internet that "landlord prices jumped by 500,000 overnight" is indeed true, but it is only an isolated phenomenon.

the lianjia intermediary responsible for the baoshan area also reported that the number of listings in the area has increased significantly:

"the number of listings in the seven or eight stores in our area is more than 1,000, and the number of listings is still increasing. compared with the previous listings of more than 700 and more than 800 sets, the current number of listings is still at a high level, and it is still a buyer's market..."

in other words, more homeowners want to take advantage of this opportunity to sell their houses at a higher price.

several intermediaries located in pudong and baoshan district said: "landlords who really want to sell their houses will take advantage of this wave of favorable policies to sell quickly, and will not increase the price, because selling is the purpose."

"houses will definitely become surplus in a while."

"the investment income after selling the property is higher than holding the property, and the house will not rise as fast."

"the new policy has allowed me to save about 1,000 yuan in interest every month. now i also want to buy a new house, but i definitely won't buy it now."

in fact, in the past two years, second-hand housing across the country has been in a state of "price-for-volume", especially in some urban areas with "old and broken" housing prices, which have almost "cut in half".

zhang xiaoduan, deputy director of the cushman & wakefield research institute, believes that the adjustment of china's real estate market has been going on for some time in recent years. the impact on market confidence is difficult to be directly reversed at a certain policy node. all parties in the market will analyze and predict more rationally and cautiously.

although the continuous optimization and loosening of the real estate market policy environment and the simultaneous efforts of policies on both supply and demand sides will help the real estate market get out of the downturn, it still requires continuous improvement in macroeconomic aspects such as population and economy.

therefore, this stimulus may be a bargain hunting point for real estate stocks, but it is still far away from the bargain hunting point for the property market.

whether in the new home market or second-hand housing transactions, "price for volume" will still be the trend.

however, for some real estate companies that are facing difficulties, the rise in stock prices is undoubtedly a big blow.

this is a revaluation of real estate stocks’ asset packages caused by policy changes.

leading companies such as sunac and vanke have doubled and doubled their hong kong stock prices in a short period of time.

before the holiday,cifi groupreleased inside information, announced significant progress in overseas restructuring, and formally signed a restructuring support agreement with the bondholder group.

cifi's overseas restructuring involves 10 senior bonds, 1 convertible bond and 1 perpetual bond, as well as 13 overseas loans, with a total principal amount of us$6.858 billion.

being able to restructure bonds will at least have more advantages than disadvantages for cifi to get rid of its debt difficulties.

and recently, more and more real estate companies have handed over debt restructuring plans.

for example, kaisa's overseas debt restructuring support agreement also received participation from 70% of creditors.dafa real estatean overseas debt restructuring plan was also announced, and sino-ocean held a hearing on the debt restructuring plan...

however, there are still many real estate companies that are struggling to get out of the quagmire.

for examplecountry gardenit has yet to hand over its overseas debt restructuring plan, and the stock market has been suspended, perfectly avoiding this surge.

in addition, real estate companies such as sunshine 100 and blu-ray development cannot even come up with plans when faced with the problem of domestic debt defaults.

one data is that as many as 18 listed real estate companies will be delisted and delisted from 2023 to 2024.

many companies were ordered to delist by exchanges not only because of low stock prices, but also because of debt and operating problems.

there are very few listed real estate companies today that can say they have recovered their strength.

through research on mature markets such as the united states and japan, it can be found that real estate companies that can survive the counter-cyclical period must meet two major conditions:

1. lower debt levels.

2. high operating income.

therefore, when observing the market outlook of the stock prices of real estate companies, we still need to pay attention to whether the financing cash flow of these companies can improve, whether they can reduce their liabilities, and improve their ability to sell.

in august 2023, when the policy authorities changed the name of real estate to a pillar industry, sunac rose from 0.8 yuan to 3.2 yuan.

however, this adjustment did not bring about an end to the decline in real estate sales.

over the past year or so, every real estate market boom has been caused by policy changes.

hong kong stocksvanke enterprisefor example, within a week, vanke has risen from 4 yuan to 12 yuan. this increase has far exceeded the recovery of fundamentals.

after this round of stimulus, these real estate companies facing thunderstorms must also work hard to practice their internal skills.

for investors, this surge is a rare occurrence in 20 years.

for many mainland real estate companies, this may be their last chance to turn the corner.