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[text/observer.com columnist yankee]

on the occasion of national day,liaoning shipa new track belonging to china's aircraft carrier was once again written on the ocean.

on october 2, the integrated staff and supervision department of the japanese ministry of defense issued a notice stating that after 10 days of continuous activities in the western pacific, the liaoning aircraft carrier formation did not return through the miyako strait or the bashi strait as usual, but turned southwest and headed towards mindanao island in the philippines, and sailing between the island and the talao islands in indonesia, entering the sulawesi sea adjacent to kalimantan island to the west and sulawesi island to the south. next, the liaoning fleet sailed through the narrow waters between the sulu islands in the philippines and entered the sulu sea.

in the previous exercises of our aircraft carrier formation in the ocean east of the philippines, its "imaginary enemies" were often considered to be the us military stationed in guam, as well as the naval and air forces of the united states and its slave countries operating in the western pacific. however, as the liaoning fleet sails through the sulawesi sea and the sulu sea one after another, if it chooses the closest route to return to its home port - heading north to mindoro island, it means that the fleet will be only about 200 kilometers away from manila. this is unprecedented. the track and directionality are quite different.

the red solid arrow is the current track of the liaoning ship formation, and the red dotted arrow is the possible subsequent track.

after owning aircraft carriers for 12 years, china's "aircraft carrier deterrence" has also gone through a process of starting from scratch and gradually producing "level subdivisions." except for those that are still in the trial trial stagefujian ship, among the two existing ski jump aircraft carriers,shandong shipsince the home port naturally faces the south china sea, as long as the ship is dispatched, even if it is just a restorative training with a track that does not exceed the paracel islands, neighboring countries will "involuntarily" pay attention to the movements of the shandong ship formation, and the philippines, which has a guilty conscience, will "consciously" put yourself in the first position.

as for the liaoning ship, whose home port faces the yellow sea, although it has often traveled to the south china sea since its commissioning (especially before the shandong ship developed combat effectiveness), it has mostly entered the western pacific via ryukyu for training exercises. as mentioned above, although the training sea area is not far from the philippines, because the "magnet effect" of powerful enemies is too obvious, the outside world rarely associates the activities of the liaoning ship with the philippines' recent developments in china-philippines relations, especially in "virtue" on the south china sea issue.

the appearance of the type 055 10,000-ton large-scale propeller near the provocative waters of the philippines is already a major event that kills chickens with a knife.

this is the first western pacific exercise after the modernization and modification of the liaoning ship. at first glance, this is also the case. starting from september 17th to 18th, when the formation entered the "contiguous zone" of yonaguni island in japan, the formation then turned to the southeast and sailed at high speed, and met the uss theodore roosevelt aircraft carrier formation "ape" which had just passed through the surigao strait and entered the western pacific and was preparing to return to san diego. "farewell", and the generally counter-clockwise route in the next week - especially since the liaoning ship was only about 900 kilometers away from guam on september 29, i believe that even if the philippines can get a notification from the united states on the liaoning ship's movements at this time, i don't think it has anything to do with it.

however, just two days later, the liaoning fleet suddenly appeared in the southeast of mindanao (the hometown of the duterte family), 1,500 kilometers away from guam, and was about to advance into the sulawesi sea to carry out the next phase of patrol and deterrence missions. . this is evident from the fact that the aircraft carrier formation quickly changed its position and adjusted its "deterrence orientation". to achieve such a thousand-mile gallop, the adjustment of the liaoning fleet's subordinate ships is worth mentioning.

western open source intelligence researchers drew a route map for the liaoning ship's training in the west pacific based on charts reported by japan's integrated staff supervision department.

since november 2013, when the liaoning fleet entered the south china sea via the taiwan strait for the first time and conducted cross-sea area long-endurance training for the first time, the type 054a guided missile frigate, recognized by the people's navy as the "ocean's olympus," has never been absent from any chinese aircraft carrier formation. actions that go out into the open ocean. in official image materials and "queen photographer" shots, the 054as appearing next to the aircraft carrier time and time again make people forget that as early as when the "varyag" had not announced the new ship name and the outside world was discussing the composition of the aircraft carrier formation. , the biggest doubt about the 054a is the speed (especially the ability to maintain the top speed).

on september 18, when the liaoning fleet sailed southward to the yonaguni strait in two batches, it was followed by the type 052d guided-missile destroyers chengdu and huainan, which were from a destroyer detachment stationed in liaoning of the northern theater navy, and passed through the yonaguni strait later. the ones stationed in the same home port as the liaoning ship are the type 055 10,000-ton large-scale destroyer anshan, the type 052d guided missile destroyer urumqi, and the "aircraft carrier wet nurse" type 901 comprehensive supply ship hulun lake. from the first absence of 054a to the first time the formation did not enter the western pacific in a "dignified formation" at the same time, these all indicate that the liaoning fleet's "formation" is different from the past.

compared with the political significance of crossing japan's "contiguous zone" twice, it is also very important to break the long-term rigidity of aircraft carrier formations in "same in and out at the same time" - the mindset of countries that are latecomers to aircraft carriers.

when the 054a joins the 052c/d and even the 055-type 10,000-ton large-scale drive in the gulf of aden escort formation, sino-russian joint exercises, and its own major internal exercises, the proportion of continuous sailing at a speed of more than 26 knots will not be too high. in the early training exercises accompanying the aircraft carrier formation, due to the low frequency of aircraft carriers launching carrier-based aircraft, the carrier-based aircraft units in the exploratory stage of use did not carry much fuel and bombs, so the length of time the aircraft carrier could continue to sail at full speed against the wind was also limited. the relatively short length makes the speed shortcoming of 054a not too obvious.

however, when both the liaoning and shandong ships have achieved an average dispatch intensity of more than 30 sorties per day for a week in the western pacific, it means that the aircraft carrier needs to maintain a high speed for a long time and needs to change its course according to the wind direction to maintain sufficient deck wind ensures that j-15s with different mounting configurations can safely take off from the ski jump deck; this makes the movement logic of the aircraft carrier formation and the movement logic of the destroyer and frigate formation increasingly different, making it difficult to reconcile, so in the new batch of 052d after being equipped with advanced submarine search equipment such as towed line array sonar equivalent to the 054a, it is time to conduct a "no frigate" test.

in addition, due to the lack of 054a hongqi 10 ship-to-air missiles, without it in the aircraft carrier formation, there is also a shortcoming in organizing terminal anti-missile counterattack coordination.

it is not difficult to see from the above that the improvement of the j-15's continuous dispatch capability not only means a sharp increase in the consumption of aviation kerosene, but also means that the aircraft carrier needs to continue sailing at high speed, so that the heavy fuel consumed by its power system is also considerable. according to reports from the japanese side, the liaoning ship rendezvoused with the hulun lake ship on september 25 and october 1 to carry out replenishment operations, which is in line with the general rule of aircraft carrier formation replenishment cycle of 5-7 days.

except for these two days, in the remaining 10 days, the liaoning ship, with a maximum speed of 29 knots, did not maintain a long-term formation with the hulun lake ship, with a maximum speed of 25 knots, as in previous western pacific exercises. "lightly equipped and simple", only keeping 1-2 052ds nearby; even on september 29 - when the aircraft carrier was about 900 kilometers away from guam as mentioned above, the liaoning was even observed operating as a single ship , none of the formation's subordinate ships are within sight range.

it wasn’t until the national day that the liaoning aircraft carrier fleet gathered off the coast of mindanao to celebrate the festival.

it is not difficult to guess that after sailing south to the yonaguni strait on september 18, the hulun lake ship did not follow the liaoning ship south to "meet roosevelt". instead, it cruised in the corresponding sea area as planned, waiting for the liaoning ship to lead the two 052ds to arrive on september 25. replenishment position; after completing the replenishment, the ship went straight to the direction of mindanao and waited for the liaoning ship and the destroyers to meet here after completing their missions and conduct replenishment operations again. this arrangement gives the liaoning ship and each destroyer maximum freedom of tactical action, which can be seen from the general track of the formation, which can be called "stride forward" from september 25 to october 1.

the "10,000-ton cruiser" 055, which has long been regarded as the "blade escort" of aircraft carriers and has responded to provocations from u.s. and japanese warships and aircraft in this capacity, has an equally unexpected trajectory this time: according to japanese observations , from the time when it sailed south to the yonaguni strait on september 18 until it rendezvoused with the liaoning fleet on october 1, during this period the anshan ship did not appear within the visual range of the liaoning ship even once.

in the author's opinion, this "disappearance" just illustrates the new meaning of the identity of "knife guard": with the enrichment of use experience, and with the blessing of situational awareness capabilities provided by aircraft carrier-based aircraft, 055 has its powerful single-ship the active deterrence formed by combat capabilities is a greater containment and consumption of the enemy's naval and air forces, and is of higher value than simply "protecting" the aircraft carrier.

when the "eagle strike-xx" in the 850mm universal vertical hair has begun to be updated, the author still pays attention to the small fluctuations in the average daily takeoffs and landings of carrier-based aircraft rather than the combat power of the system. i think it is a bit of a waste of time.

when the aircraft carrier formation gathers within visual range and forms a formation that is familiar to people, the countries and regions that are used to intimidate them must also know what kind of "country chickens and dogs" they are being deterred by. and when the position of the subordinate ships of the aircraft carrier formation changes unpredictably, and each destroyer's universal vertical launcher can carry a variety of sea and land strike weapons with a range of four digits, this kind of "unpredictable force, water attack" the japanese maritime self-defense force general-purpose destroyers "asahi" and "kirisame" that followed all the way to sulawesi must have felt the deterrence brought by "impermanence" most clearly, and they will definitely report it to their "emperor" fan.

these gratifying changes in the use of the liaoning fleet are reminiscent of the emergence of the new integrated submarine rescue lifeboat "jingbo lake" with a displacement equivalent to the type 055 and the 19,000-horsepower high-sea tugboat during the shandong fleet's training in the south china sea. . although not equipped with a single bomb or artillery piece, these "fleet puzzles" have just been put into service in recent years. when developed, they fully considered the damage control and rescue support capabilities of new combat forces such as aircraft carriers, large-scale cruisers, and nuclear submarines. they are chinese aircraft carriers. the formation began to fully consider how to fight a protracted war and a war of attrition when facing powerful opponents.

the first aircraft carrier is the posthumous son of the red navy. it is normal for the development of the people's navy aircraft carrier formation to start from imitation; and after 12 years of construction, from above water to underwater to in the air, we already have the "first learn block letters, and then the confidence to learn running script”

the new look of the formation displayed by the liaoning and shandong ships in 2024, although it has a strong verification nature, also shows that the development of china's aircraft carrier formations has basically gone out of the initial stage of imitating foreign armies, and has begun to explore new models of formation composition. a new stage of evolution from navigation coordination to combat coordination. and when the results of these verification work are implemented on the fujian ship and its follow-up ships with further improved self-sustainability and more advanced carrier-based machinery, the shock to the world's navies will be even greater.

now that we are talking about the fujian ship, in the fourth sailing test of the ship in the previous stage, western commercial satellites observed the horizontal replenishment of the ship and the hulun lake ship in the bohai bay for the first time, and the test progress has moved forward. step. just last week, the type 075 amphibious assault ship no. 4, which will be launched in december 2023, returned to the old factory area of ​​the hudong shipyard to dock and prepare for the finishing work. in other words, by the golden autumn of october next year, the people's navy is likely to there are 7 "large decks" in active service, but there are still only 2 supporting "aircraft carrier nanny" type 901 comprehensive supply ships.

"serve every comrade in need of supplies!" the two type 901s are even busier than they were in 2005 when the two basic type 903s were first put into service.

since the no. 2 ship chaganhu was put into service five years ago, the construction of the follow-up ship of type 901 has been in a state of many rumors and no results. in the past year or two, foreign media and self-media have continued to exaggerate that the type 901 no. 3 ship has been launched, but it is impossible for a giant ship with a total length of more than 240 meters and a full load displacement of nearly 50,000 tons to remain silent after being launched. at a time when the construction of many aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships is booming, the difficult birth of the "aircraft carrier nanny" is obviously not caused by construction difficulty and funding issues.

although it has the type 901, which has a displacement that is almost twice that of the type 903/903a, the people's navy does not adopt a secondary supply system like the us military's "small oil tankers feed large supply ships, and large supply ships feed aircraft carriers." before the hulun lake ship was put into service in 2017, the type 903a gaoyouhu ship also participated in accompanying the liaoning ship on its voyage to the west pacific; after the two type 901 ships were put into the line, nine type 903/903a ships continued to be used to provide increasingly heavy support for each destroyer detachment. the long-distance voyage mission does not bear the task of docking with the type 901.

in addition to the chagan lake ship and three type 903/903a ships, the southern theater command navy has another "soviet heritage" - the qinghai lake ship that was listed in 1996. although the speed is slower, it still has a full load displacement of 37,000 tons. has strong supply capacity

in the u.s. navy, where nuclear aircraft carriers march east and west every day, the combined use of dry cargo supply ships (t-ake) and oil and water supply ships (t-ao) has become the "routine rotation" of today's u.s. military supply system: from the home port or forward during the relatively safe stage when the base is heading to the war zone, the oil and water supply ship can bring a small amount of dry cargo to meet the requirements; after arriving in the war zone, the nuclear aircraft carrier itself does not need fuel replenishment, and the escort ship's patrol range is not large, and it is mainly responsible for providing dry cargo replenishment of ammunition and supplies. a small amount of fuel on board is basically enough. in contrast, the "balanced loading" but expensive "supply" class fast combat support ship has become a substitute for "call me back after a big war".

the overall concept of the type 901 is obviously closer to the "supply" level. it is reasonable to highlight the characteristics of the aircraft carrier support capability on the basis of the "balanced loading" of the type 903. however, when designing the type 901, a large number of actual "aircraft carrier support capabilities" the data is far from being fully explored as it is today, and is more based on the experience of foreign military forces. the difference between the usage logic of our aircraft carriers and those of foreign aircraft carriers means that based on this experience, many corrections will inevitably be found during use.

the docking of "american supply ships" and "soviet aircraft carriers" is not the most difficult problem in itself, but how to quickly distribute the supplies to the required battle positions is another matter.

for example, for the first two ski-jump takeoff aircraft carriers whose core mission is anti-aircraft warfare, there has been a debate about how strong ammunition supply capabilities need to be established. some traces of this can still be seen in the ammunition elevator configuration of the fujian ship; there is a lack of exercises similar to the air force's "red sword" military exercise, which consumes a large amount of ammunition in one exercise and fully tests the entire process of the actual operation of the aircraft carrier formation. in addition, data on the consumption of various types of ammunition by carrier-based aircraft units and attached ships can only be obtained through simulations. calculate the conversion.

on the contrary, the type 075, which also relies on the type 901 for accompanying supplies, and the type 076 amphibious assault ship under construction, have another "miscellaneous" issue in the proportion of ammunition consumption - as small as the light weapons and ammunition carried by the air assault infantry. as large as the airborne weapons carried by armed helicopters and various types of drones, their numerical advantage over aircraft carriers that can be deployed at any time cannot be ignored. this means that whether it is an improvement to the existing type 901 or the design of a follow-up ship, their needs must be fully considered.

relatively speaking, after carrying the f-35b, the u.s. navy amphibious assault ship named "lightning aircraft carrier" is indeed closer to the u.s. navy's large aircraft carriers in terms of aviation ammunition support requirements.

in addition, when designing the type 075 amphibious assault ship, taking into account the need to perform overseas missions and the fact that the number of type 901s was insufficient, the ship paid great attention to the self-sustainability index, which reduced the dependence on t-ao to a certain extent. under the influence of these factors, as our army's "big deck" force construction advances, and in the face of the increasingly complex reality of support work, it has indeed emerged whether we should imitate the us military and build some special t-akes (type 903a itself is very excellent t-ao), before the follow-up ship of type 901 enters the line, it will alleviate the debate on supply pressure. the follow-up ship of type 901 has become one of the most difficult ships in the people's navy. objectively, it also illustrates the saying "before the troops and horses are moved, food and grass go first", "how difficult it is to practice it personally".

as the saying goes, good things come only in time. the author believes that when the supply capacity is significantly improved - although this will most likely not be discovered from the appearance; the self-defense capability will also be upgraded to a certain extent - the 22 hongqi 10s dismantled after the type 056 was transferred to the coast guard should have an explanation. ——on the day when the follow-up ship "aircraft carrier wet nurse" "began to appear after a long wait", there must be many twists and turns of the story behind it: such as "the drawings were revised several times before the start of construction" or even "modified while building" and so on. it is not unusual for anecdotes to appear.

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