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whenever real estate policies are adjusted, real estate agents are often the first to sense and respond to these changes.

this year is xushui's 16th year as a real estate agent. in the past ten years, he has experienced the boom in the real estate industry. he has made millions a month, and also lost several houses due to industry shocks.

on the evening of september 30, beijing, following shanghai, guangzhou, and shenzhen, relaxed its purchase restriction policy, and xu shui and his colleagues began to gear up.

in the past few years, xushui could only sell six or seven houses every year because he had no basic salary and his income was meager. now that the threshold for purchasing a house has been lowered, the social security and personal tax payment period for non-residents purchasing commercial housing within the fifth ring road has been adjusted from 5 years to 3 years, and outside the fifth ring road to 2 years.

he feels that it is time for some customers who were unable to buy houses in beijing because they had not had enough years to pay social security and personal income tax.

early in the morning on october 1, xushui sent messages to these customers one by one, telling them that they were welcome to come and view the properties during the national day holiday.

picture | real estate practitioners can be seen everywhere on social networks soliciting clients to view houses during the national day

the marketing department of xushui's company also launched a "golden week" promotion plan, and colleagues who had not updated their wechat moments for a long time also posted several updates.

according to xushui’s experience, every time a favorable policy is introduced, it will drive a wave of transaction volume, and at the same time, there will also be situations where owners are reluctant to sell.

take a community in chaoyang district, beijing, where xushui is responsible, as an example. in previous years, there were usually more than 100 houses for sale in this community. however, after several policy adjustments this year, some owners began to "cover up their properties" and now the community is listed for sale. there are only sixty or seventy units of housing.

"after the new policy came out, when i talked with the owners, their attitude changed. they either wanted to raise the price or wanted to wait and see, and they were obviously more stubborn than before." xushui said.

some people want to wait, while others want to rush into action. at any time, there are people selling and buying houses. according to the new generation agent fang gang, the more uncertain the market is, the more it will test the ability of real estate agents.

fang gang has only been in the industry for five years, and these five years were also the years when the real estate industry was in decline. colleagues around him have either resigned and changed careers, or stayed put to "retire", but he has always been the top seller in his store.

"compared with last year's market, the transaction volume this year is still good, higher than last year, but the transaction price is not ideal. i sold more than 30 houses last year, and it has been close to 30 houses since the first half of this year. the total volume it should be higher than last year.”

fang gang's jurisdiction is in tongzhou, east of beijing. according to him, the price drop in housing prices around the subway in the area is about 20%.

although the number of his contracts has increased, the total number of contracts has decreased because the unit price of real estate has dropped.

on the eve of national day, beijing announced the relaxation of its 13-year-old purchase restriction policy, which fang gang said was expected. as for whether housing prices will rise as a result, fang gang believes that "it still depends on the specific situation."

picture | tongzhou announced the lifting of purchase restriction policies, in line with other districts in beijing

chen min also joined the real estate industry at the same time as fang gang. the area chen min is responsible for is only separated from fang gang's store by the chaobai river and belongs to yanjiao, hebei.

in the past few years, chen min has witnessed with his own eyes the fact that housing prices in yanjiao have plummeted, with prices halved.

"since november last year, favorable policies have been continuously issued. although the policies have been supportive, prices have been falling. yanjiao itself is a small place. for example, some of the projects in nancheng we are responsible for have dropped to the opening price. what is the situation in yanjiao now? there are more people selling houses than buying houses. there are more wolves and less meat. "

chen min is not surprised by the market changes in yanjiao. most of the people who choose to buy houses in yanjiao are families constrained by beijing's purchase restrictions and high housing prices, as well as parents who are concerned about their children's education. yanjiao is the second-best choice for these home buyers to meet their housing and education needs.

"now that beijing has relaxed purchase restrictions, if housing prices are acceptable, beijing will definitely be the first choice for everyone."

chen min feels that despite continuous favorable policies, the real estate market in yanjiao is already a thing of the past and it will be difficult to regain its former glory.

as a "housing slave" who is repaying her mortgage, tong xin has been "smashed" by waves of blockbuster news recently.

"it seems like every time i wake up, there are pies falling from the sky."

in 2021, 35-year-old tong xin took out a loan of 3 million and bought her first house in beijing at a high price. although housing prices have not caught up with the good times, they have caught up with the benefits of interest rate adjustments.

when she bought the house three years ago, her loan repayment interest rate was more than 5 percent, and her monthly payment was about 18,000 yuan. in the policy adjustment in 2023, the interest rate was lowered to more than 4%, and the monthly payment was reduced to 15,000 yuan.

if the existing mortgage interest rate is adjusted again this year, and she repays part of the principal early at the beginning of the year, the monthly payment may only be a little over 10,000 yuan.

this change means that tong xin’s monthly interest expenditure will be reduced by six to seven thousand yuan, which is almost equivalent to the average monthly income of residents in second- and third-tier cities in china.

picture | tong xin’s neighborhood

"i feel like i can live a good life again without the burden of mortgage. i can buy as much as i want without having to read the price tag before buying something." tong xin's joy is obvious.

the latest data shows that the interest rate of new mortgage loans in my country has dropped to a historical low, about 3.45%. in contrast, the average existing mortgage interest rate remains at around 4.21%, and some owners even have to bear an interest rate of 5% to 6%.

this adjustment in existing mortgage interest rates will bring about an average decrease of about 0.5 percentage points, and is expected to save about 150 billion yuan in interest payments for home-buying households every year.

taking a 1 million yuan mortgage with equal principal and interest repayments over 30 years as an example, the monthly repayment after adjustment will be reduced by approximately 284 yuan, and the repayment savings over 30 years will be approximately 100,000 yuan.

however, some people are indifferent to interest rate adjustments.

guo jing, who has lived in beijing for more than 20 years, is one of the earlier people to settle down in beijing. within a few years of coming to beijing, she bought her first real estate in tongzhou for a "cabbage price", and later bought a small apartment in yanjiao with full payment.

picture | the house guo jing bought in tongzhou

in 2016, a colleague went to bazhou, hebei province to buy a house and dragged her along. she couldn't resist the encouragement and took a loan to buy a two-bedroom apartment.

although she has to repay a mortgage of more than 2,900 yuan every month, for guo jing, who has a decent income, this expenditure is not a burden.

if she hadn't been asked, she almost forgot about the interest rate adjustment.after looking through the loan repayment record, i found out that the monthly payment dropped from more than 2,900 yuan to more than 2,700 yuan.

"for those who are repaying loans and have a rigid need to buy a house, lower interest rates and lower down payment ratios are definitely good things. they can reduce everyone's financial pressure, but the impact on us is actually relatively limited."

guo jing said, "our generation is deeply influenced by traditional concepts and generally holds the idea of ​​'buying a house and settling down'. therefore, a considerable number of people have already bought more than one house if conditions permit, and they have also borrowed money. it’s almost there.we are among those who have enjoyed real estate dividends. we do not have the burden of large loans, so we do not pay much attention to interest rate changes.”

however, guo jing also said,if there is a need to improve living conditions and a loan is needed to replace a new house, the down payment ratio and interest rate will definitely be considered.

there are great differences among people of different age groups when it comes to their thoughts on taking out a loan to buy a house. compared with guo jing, who was born in the 1970s and is relatively "conservative", qingqing, who was born in the 1995s, may have a somewhat "unconventional" view.

qingqing disapproves of young people buying houses.

she admires the views of an internet celebrity blogger:buying a house is like buying a diamond ring for marriage. it is a trap set up by the merchant. if you buy a diamond, you will buy it. if you have to bear a 30-year mortgage, it will seriously affect your mood and reduce your quality of life.

qingqing doesn't want her 30 years of life to be locked up by a mortgage, so her advice is: never take out a loan to buy a house, and don't make a decision lightly even if the interest rate is friendly.

this september of 2024 is a month of full firepower.

fiscal, financial, monetary, real estate and other related policies have been introduced intensively, which is overwhelming.

cutting reserve requirements, cutting interest rates, and lowering existing mortgage interest rates. if there is a party that suffers from this policy adjustment, it may be the lending institution-the bank.

on september 29, four state-owned banks, icbc, china construction bank, agricultural bank of china and bank of china, issued announcements overnight that they would complete batch adjustments to existing mortgage interest rates by october 31, 2024.

for commercial banks, the high-interest-rate existing mortgage loans held in the past few years are undoubtedly the shining "cash cow" in their asset landscape, continuing to provide banks with a stable and generous profit flow.

however, in the past two years,the central bank frequently adjusts interest rate policies, and the advantages of these former profit engines are gradually weakening.

due to excessive interest pressure, many borrowers choose to repay their loans early, especially in first-tier cities such as beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen.

due to the high base point of early mortgage interest rates, the interest rate gap between newly issued mortgage loans and existing existing loans is large. some borrowers will even use consumer loans or business loans to replace existing high-interest mortgage loans in order to reduce funds. expenditure costs and optimize debt structure.

mr. jiang, head of the credit department of a state-owned bank in beijing, said: “the recently introduced series of policies may seem to drive banks to make profits, but in fact they are reducing pressure on the market.after all, when the mortgage becomes the straw that breaks the camel's back, the haze of cut-offs will hang over the entire market.”

picture | netizens share their experience of ending their supply on social networks

according to statistics, the current early repayment rate (prepayment rate) of bank mortgage loans in my country is about 14%. in the first half of 2024 alone, the scale of bank mortgage loans has shrunk by more than 300 billion, and the non-performing loan ratio of some banks has increased.

in short,the bank's mortgage business has experienced a significant contraction, and the non-performing loan problem of some institutions has intensified.

therefore, adjusting the interest rate of existing mortgage loans to a level close to that of new loans can effectively alleviate the dual pressures faced by banks:

the first is to reduce the liquidity challenges caused by customers' early loan repayments, and the second is to reduce the risk of rising non-performing loan ratios.

at the same time, for the majority of "housing slaves", the reduction in monthly payments directly reduces their financial burden, allowing more funds to be released, thereby stimulating consumption willingness and promoting the activity of the consumer market.

in this regard, bank practitioner liang chao expressed a similar view: "in the past, second home loan policies were highly punitive. especially in first-tier cities, the down payment ratio for second home homes was once as high as 70% to 80%. at the same time, along with with high bonus points.

in view of the downward trend in housing prices and the lack of market enthusiasm, it is obviously not appropriate to continue to use the down payment ratio and loan interest rate policies that were designed to curb market overheating in the past.therefore, timely adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates is undoubtedly a great benefit to banks, individuals and the entire real estate market.”

for the four first-tier cities of beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen to fully or partially relax purchase restrictions, everyone generally believes that this is a manifestation of the return of the market. mr. ma, who has worked in the financial consulting field for many years, said:

“in the past fifteen to twenty years, the rapid development of the real estate market has been deeply driven by financial speculation and investment attributes, and its commercialization and financialization characteristics are obvious.

as the market environment changes, the real estate market gradually returns to its residential nature, and buyers who just need homes and users of improved housing will become the core force of the market.

however, due to market expansion and consumption overdraft in the past years, the size of the current demand group is relatively limited. relaxing purchase restrictions and lowering loan interest rates and down payment ratios may have a certain stimulating effect. however, they are limited by the small size of the group and limited purchasing power. its pulling and boosting effect on the entire real estate market depends on the specific market performance. "

it will take time to answer how the real estate market will perform in the future.

but in any case, the introduction of a series of policies before the national day marks that china's real estate market is ushering in a new turning point.