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(text/edited by pan yuchen/gao xin) in may this year, the u.s. government announced that it would increase the tariffs on electric vehicles made in china to 100%. it also increased the tax rates on industrial related products such as batteries and steel. this decision was taken on september 27 it officially came into effect on 2027-2030; later, the biden administration also proposed a comprehensive ban on chinese automobile software and hardware entering the united states from 2027 to 2030; earlier in 2022, the biden administration even ignored the opposition of allies and passed the highly protectionist " the inflation reduction act encourages electrification through subsidies such as tax incentives for u.s. electric vehicles, while excluding products from china and even allied countries.

is this series of hysterical measures simply to suppress china at the expense of others, or does it have a deeper purpose? nikkei noted that the biden administration aims to cultivate the domestic electric vehicle industry by building trade barriers and strive to revive the rust belt, where the automobile industry gathers.

as the u.s. election gradually heats up. in july this year, on the eve of his withdrawal from the election, biden announced an allocation of us$1.7 billion (approximately rmb 12 billion) to provide subsidies for transforming abandoned factories in the rust belt into electric vehicle factories, thus attracting companies to move their production lines back to the united states and providing local support. create jobs. for example, general motors will receive a federal grant of us$500 million (approximately rmb 3.5 billion) to help it transform its auto factory in lansing, the capital of michigan.

according to the government, this has created approximately 2,900 new jobs and saved 15,000 jobs that were about to disappear. market intelligence company guidehouse insights believes that without government funding, most of these factories are at risk of being closed.

although biden has withdrawn from the election, nikkei predicts that the current democratic candidate, vice president harris, will also continue this policy. at the same time, biden’s old opponent and republican candidate trump has always scorned electric vehicles and threatened to abolish the above policies. he also encourages foreign companies to open factories in the united states, hire american workers, and provide preferential policies such as tax cuts and deregulation. on the contrary, companies that do not build factories in the united states will be levied high tariffs when exporting products to the united states.

with the general election around the corner, the overt and covert battles between the two parties over the economy, especially employment issues, have intensified, and the rust belt is where the battleground states are concentrated.

"redneck elegy"

the so-called rust belt refers to the area adjacent to the great lakes in the northeastern united states, including michigan, pennsylvania, ohio, new york, illinois, indiana, iowa and wisconsin.

the area is located near the appalachian mountains and is close to rivers such as the ohio river. it has rich coal and iron ore resources and convenient transportation environment. as early as the early 20th century, the region's automobile and steel industries had become the backbone of american industry, reaching their peak during world war ii. until the 1950s, the region concentrated nearly half of the u.s. economy and more than half of the industrial workers.

however, since the 1950s, due to industrial transformation, globalization, labor costs and other reasons, local industries have begun to shift to the southern united states, europe, japan and mexico; on the other hand, traditional enterprises have been stuck in their ways and are unwilling to invest in new equipment and new technologies. as a result, companies in late-developing industrial countries such as japan overtook u.s. companies by increasing investment in production and automation. in addition, the appreciation of the u.s. dollar in the 1980s also affected the export of u.s. products, which in turn affected the development of domestic industries.

as the hollowing out of industry intensified, most of the local factories were abandoned and left rusty, hence the name rust belt.

the most direct impact of the decline of the rust belt is population loss. from 1970 to 2006, cities such as cleveland, ohio, detroit, michigan, buffalo, new york, and pittsburgh, pennsylvania, lost approximately 45% of their populations, and their residents' median household incomes also fell. and detroit is down about 30%, buffalo is down 20%, and pittsburgh is down 10%.

in the first decade of the 21st century, population loss continued: detroit lost 25.7% of its population; gary, indiana lost 22%; youngstown, ohio lost 18.9%; flint, michigan lost 18.7%; cleveland lost 18.7%. a loss of 14.5%.

the population decline and income decline were followed by a series of social upheavals. due to the lack of local tax revenue, the city's infrastructure became more dilapidated due to lack of maintenance, and slums emerged one after another. social security also collapsed, and the number of frustrated people increased, which also led to high drug abuse and crime rates.

the famous political scientist francis fukuyama wrote in his book "the great break": "people associate the information age with the advent of the internet in the 1990s, but the shift to the industrial age occurred at least a generation earlier than that, and was accompanied by american rust. the deindustrialization of the belt and road and similar shifts in manufacturing in other industrialized countries... this decline is easily measured in statistics on crime, fatherless children, broken trust, reduced access to education and outcomes.”

"for as long as i can remember, jobs have been lost in this city, and people have gradually lost hope." in 2016, james david vance, a "post-80s generation", published his memoir "rednecks" "elegy", which tells the story of growing up in middletown, ohio. eight years later, vance became trump's deputy and the republican vice presidential candidate. the new york times once reported that if you understand "hillbilly elegy", you will understand vance and the 2024 u.s. election.

a must-win area

in every u.s. election, voters in the rust belt have been a force that cannot be ignored. although the rust belt provided key votes when trump was first elected president in 2016, it has not always been a stronghold of the republican party. as early as the 1930s, during roosevelt's new deal, local workers gained the right to form unions and supported roosevelt's democratic party. after the 1950s, during the decline of the rust belt, local voters became increasingly inclined to conservatism, which became the ticket for the republican party. warehouse.

with the end of the cold war, people in the rust belt became divided, with different states and cities often supporting different political parties. until obama was re-elected in 2012, most states in the rust belt leaned toward the democratic party. however, in 2016, trump won a resounding victory in the rust belt, especially the three democratic states of michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania, and unexpectedly won the white house. his advocacy of trade protectionism, combating illegal immigration, defending manufacturing, and “making america great again” are also deeply recognized by voters in the rust belt.

however, conditions in the rust belt have not fundamentally improved during the trump administration. in the 2020 election, states such as michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin switched to the democratic party, causing trump to lose his advantage in the rust belt and lose the election.

therefore, whether it is this year's election or in the future, the rust belt is still a must-win goal for both parties. vance, who was born in this area, has therefore been taken seriously by trump and the republican party, and is regarded as an important bargaining chip to compete for local voters. on the other hand, the democratic government has also introduced measures such as the inflation act to revive the u.s. manufacturing industry in order to win the approval of voters in the rust belt.

however, according to industry insiders, the effects of policies to revitalize the rust belt may not be as expected. annelies goger, a researcher at the brookings institution, an american think tank, believes that the rust belt lacks labor, management skills and supplier ecosystems, making it difficult to build new industries on this basis.

in addition, the electric vehicle investments of foreign car companies such as toyota of japan and hyundai of south korea are mostly concentrated in the southern united states. according to data from the u.s. department of energy, as of may 2024, the number of pure electric vehicle registrations in the southern states of florida and texas ranks second and third, second only to california on the west coast.

compared with the rust belt, the southern "sunbelt" is also a key point in the battle between the two parties. michael robinet of s&p global mobility believes that "do southern auto workers support trump or harry?" sri lanka will become the focus."

"they're all terrible."

for now, the election situation in the rust belt remains unclear, and specific voters' attitudes toward different candidates vary widely.

in september, cnn interviewed two rust belt voters in different states and counties. among them, hurley coleman from saginaw, michigan, was a former autoworker and his family were supporters of the democratic party. they believe that trump's economic stimulus plan during the epidemic has not been fulfilled, and his promised tax cuts and deregulation strategies for foreign companies cannot radiate to people with poorer economies.

“the conversation now is not about how bad biden is and how good trump is, but what might happen with harris as president,” the elder coleman said.

phil kerner, a moldmaker in erie, pennsylvania, voted for trump and said about 95% of his colleagues also supported the latter: "i think the general consensus in the business community is that trump pugh was one of us, or one of them, because he was at least in the crowd."

between september 21st and 26th, siena college and the new york times conducted a poll of 2,055 voters in three battleground states: ohio, michigan and wisconsin. the latest results show that harris leads trump by a slim margin of 1 point and 2 points in michigan and wisconsin; trump leads harris by 5 points in ohio.

overall, in terms of candidates, 48% of voters think harris is better, and 47% think trump is better; but in terms of political parties, 49% of voters in the three states prefer republicans; 45% lean toward the democratic party.

it can be seen that less than 40 days have passed since the november 5 election, and the election between harris and trump is still stalemate in the rust belt. the washington post believes the rust belt could determine the outcome of the election for both candidates.

in addition, the economy, abortion and immigration are the top three issues that voters care about in each state. voters believe that trump will do a better job on the economy and immigration issues, while harris will be better on the abortion issue.

however, in the eyes of many voters, candidates from both parties have recently focused heavily on rust belt battleground states simply to cope with the upcoming general election.

"there have been a lot of problems, a lot of emergencies and disasters in the past, and a lot of us need help." coleman said in an interview with cnn that his area has been crying out, but no one has really paid attention to them before.

kona has also experienced the peak of manufacturing for decades, and it is still embarrassing to talk about the past.

“i don’t know whose wages are going up,” he said, even though official macroeconomic data have exceeded expectations for several years in a row. but his salary didn't go up. kohner believes the data is exaggerated.

"i always tell people, i'm not a republican, i'm a realist. i think they're all terrible," koerner said.

this article is an exclusive manuscript of observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.