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on october 1, with shigeru ishiba, the new president of the liberal democratic party of japan, taking the helm of "nihon maru", fumio kishida's three-year term as prime minister came to an end.

in a poll conducted by "asahi shimbun" at the end of august, when asked about the overall evaluation of kishida's performance in the past three years, 42% of the respondents gave a favorable evaluation and 56% gave a negative evaluation. when kishida announced that he would give up re-election, he said he hoped to create a "real dream team" under the leadership of the new prime minister and pursue "politics that can win the resonance of the people."

xiang haoyu, a distinguished researcher at the asia-pacific institute of the china institute of international studies, pointed out to the paper (www.thepaper.cn) that japan’s perception of china and its strategic policy orientation towards china in recent years are generally relatively negative and negative. . the general framework of japan's china policy is to contain and confront china to cooperate with the united states' suppression and containment of china. on the other hand, it is aware of the importance of sino-japanese relations and has the need to stabilize and maintain the overall situation of sino-japanese relations. therefore, we pursue a two-pronged policy of containing confrontation and engaging in dialogue and cooperation. the united states spoke highly of kishida. the white house website released a statement from us president biden on august 14, claiming that kishida not only changed japan's role in global security, but also helped establish a closer "trilateral relationship between the united states, japan and south korea" including south korea.

attempts to find a middle path only exacerbated popular dissatisfaction

fumio kishida took office as prime minister of japan on october 4, 2021. his tenure ranks third among japanese prime ministers since 2000, second only to shinzo abe (nearly nine years) and junichiro koizumi (five and a half years).

"the liberal democratic party has once again taken a safe line. the elected president is a 'product of compromise.' kishida has no power base and no star influence." in october 2021, "foreign policy" magazine commented on the then new president of the liberal democratic party and believed that kishida the prospects for maintaining long-term power are grim.

when kishida took office, some japanese media described him as "the heir to a negative legacy." at that time, the shady stories of the privatization of political power, such as the moritomo academy and kake academy issues, the cherry blossom viewing party scandal, and the election bribery case of former justice minister kawai and his wife, all surfaced one by one. kishida chose to avoid talking about it. in his first policy speech, he emphasized that "win trust and resonance with polite and tolerant politics."

compared with abe's "strongman politics", kishida presents himself as a moderate person who is "good at listening", but he has also been accused of lacking political courage because of this. when he took office, kishida focused on "new capitalism" policies, promising to promote economic growth through fairer wealth distribution, invest in human capital and innovation, and address demographic challenges. at that time, this policy was reminiscent of the first version of the "national income doubling plan" proposed by then japanese prime minister hayato ikeda in the 1960s.

different from the growth-focused strategies of "abenomics" and the yoshihide suga government, the kishida government aims to achieve a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution and proposes the "reiwa version of the income doubling plan", adding a personal touch. however, he did not make a clear commitment to this in the 2021 house of representatives election, replacing it with an "asset income doubling plan."

"new capitalism" has been criticized for being vague, and it initially appeared to be taking a different path from "abenomics", but pressure from conservatives soon forced kishida to emphasize policy continuity. the "mainichi shimbun" editorial on june 1, 2022 pointed out that kishida's new capitalism is retreating to "abenomics", and the policy focus has shifted from alleviating the burden of vulnerable groups to strategies to promote economic growth.

since 2022, the yen has depreciated sharply, imported food and fuel prices have continued to rise, and consumers have been forced to cut spending. kishida's response measures include issuing cash subsidies to low-income families, pushing the japan federation of trade unions to further raise wages, and raising the minimum wage benchmark. japan's deflation is coming to an end, but kishida's "new capitalism" policy has not yielded results.

on the other hand, the original "unification church" scandal and the "black money incident" that broke out last year have severely damaged political trust. in order to turn the tide, kishida disbanded the "hirochi kai", a faction with a history of more than 60 years, at the beginning of this year, but to no avail.

on september 3 this year, the japanese government held the last economic and fiscal advisory meeting during kishida’s term. according to the "nihon keizai shimbun" report, kishida summarized the economic results at the meeting and said, "the salary increase level is the highest in 33 years, equipment investment has reached a new high, and the nominal gdp has exceeded 600 trillion yen for the first time in history - these achievements are obvious." compared with when the kishida government came to power, nominal gdp increased by 10%. however, the actual growth rate after excluding the factor of price increases is only 3%, and the potential growth rate is only 0.6%, which is the lowest level among the group of seven (g7) countries.

ben arcione, a lecturer at waseda university graduate school of asia-pacific studies, wrote that during his tenure, kishida has always relied on and cooperated with the conservative nationalists of the liberal democratic party, especially the "abe faction" (now defunct), which disappointed the centrists in the party . this is not only reflected in economic policy, but also when dealing with the issue of the original "unification church" and the black gold incident. his attempt to find a middle line between conservatives and the public only exacerbated public dissatisfaction.

kishida's attempts to take the "middle line" were often seen as compromise politics by the outside world, and he was approaching the end of his career as prime minister. on june 5 this year, the japan house of representatives special committee on political reform meeting voted to pass the liberal democratic party’s amendment to the “political funds regulation act.” the amendment to the “political funds regulation act” was due to the occurrence of political fund-raising banquets for factions to issue kickbacks and create " "little treasury" incident. according to the japan broadcasting association, kishida made many concessions in order to win over the komeito party and the japan reform association, and was criticized within the party. it is precisely because of this incident that the relationship between kishida and taro aso broke down, making kishida's re-election prospects even more difficult.

"a true friend of america"

kishida once claimed to promote "realist diplomacy in the new era" when he first took office, trying to get rid of the liberal overtones of his previous faction, the "hiroike kai", and strive to create an image of a "realist". however, analysts believe that kishida’s so-called “realism” actually mixes liberalism and realism.

shortly after kishida took office, the russia-ukraine conflict broke out. the japanese government immediately advocated strong support for ukraine, strengthening economic sanctions on russia, and forming an alliance with western developed countries. kishida also paid a lightning visit to ukraine in march 2023, calling it "a response to a historical turning point." response".

looking back on the past three years of kishida’s diplomacy, deepening japan-us relations is one of the key points. when he was about to leave office, his last overseas trip was to the united states. biden invited kishida to visit his private residence and praised the kishida government's continuous strengthening of defense capabilities and other achievements. in april this year, kishida made a seven-day visit to the united states. it was the first time that a sitting japanese prime minister visited the united states as a "state guest" after nine years. he was also the first japanese prime minister to address all members of the u.s. congress in english. he said in his speech at that time: "it is impossible for me to receive such warm applause in the japanese diet."

nikkei news stated that in the past three years, the heads of japan and the united states have held 15 face-to-face talks. against the backdrop of intensifying fragmentation in the international community, japan has "walked together" with its only ally, the united states.

moreover, japan has actively supported and played a key role in the multiple "minilateral" mechanisms created by the united states in the asia-pacific region in recent years. during his tenure, kishida revised the three security documents, increased military spending, and continuously deepened security relations with australia, india, vietnam and other countries. the u.s. ambassador to japan issued a statement when kishida announced that he would not run for re-election in august, describing kishida as a "true friend of the united states." he said that under the leadership of kishida, a new era of u.s.-japan relations was opened, and the two sides promoted the cooperation between the united states, japan, south korea, and the united states, japan, and australia. , the united states, japan, india, australia and other multilateral relations networks.

it is worth mentioning that after kishida decided to give up running for re-election, in addition to visiting the united states, he also visited south korea again. this is the 12th face-to-face meeting between kishida and south korean president yoon seok-yue since he took office. the two sides agreed to further strengthen the improved japan-south korea relations. for a long time, there have been unresolved historical and territorial issues between japan and south korea, as well as new risks of trade friction. when yoon seok-yue took office as the president of south korea in 2022, japan-south korea relations were positioned as "the worst situation since the establishment of diplomatic relations" by some media from the two countries.

at the urging of the united states, south korea improved relations between the two countries by making concessions on the issue of forced labor. in april last year, japan and south korea restarted shuttle diplomacy. according to jiji news agency, kishida emphasized during his meeting with yun xiyue on september 6 this year that japan-south korea relations have improved significantly during his tenure. the restoration of relations between the two countries was one of the political legacies that kishida was proud of when he announced his resignation.

in terms of relations with china, kishida did not visit china during his term, but held two face-to-face meetings and one telephone conversation with chinese leaders. when the heads of state of china and japan met in san francisco last november, the two countries reaffirmed the positioning of their relations to comprehensively promote a strategic and mutually beneficial relationship. this year, the japanese government released the 2024 version of the "diplomatic blue book", restoring the statement of "japan-china strategic mutually beneficial relationship" after a lapse of five years.

however, the above-mentioned blue book continues to exaggerate the so-called "china threat." chinese foreign ministry spokesperson lin jian said at a regular press conference on april 16 that the relevant japanese documents followed the clichés of smearing and accusing china, exaggerating the so-called "china threat" and unreasonably interfering in china's internal affairs. china is firmly opposed to this.

in addition to diplomacy with major countries such as china, the united states, and south korea, kishida has been active on the international stage. according to the three-year diplomatic and security performance of the kishida government released by the japanese prime minister's office on september 30, kishida visited a total of 58 countries and regions and participated in more than 400 summits. he concluded that "prime minister kishida maintains and strengthens the 'rule of law' as the basis "

on september 27, after shigeru ishiba was elected as the new president of the liberal democratic party, kishida delivered a speech at the election site and said, "we must form a strong cabinet with execution, decisiveness, and policy capabilities and achieve results." the camera switched to kishida's behind him, ishiba shigeru nodded slowly. the latter has stated that he will inherit the economic policies promoted by the kishida government.

the 67-year-old kishida seems to have not yet reached the age of retirement, and his whereabouts after leaving office have attracted attention. a week ago, during his visit to the united states, he stated that he would continue to be committed to his lifelong career of a "nuclear-free world." on september 27, after kishida posted on social platforms that he would continue to support the liberal democratic party as an ordinary member, there were already voices in the comment area hoping that he would be in power again in the future. on september 29, it was reported that shigeru ishiba planned to appoint former prime minister yoshihide suga as the vice president of the liberal democratic party. yoshihide suga will return to the core power circle after three years. some japanese media reported that kishida helped ishiba in the liberal democratic party presidential election and is expected to exert influence on the ishiba regime.