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crazy crazy.

in just a few days, big a went from 2,600 points to 3,300 points. you have to queue up to open a stock account, and even the shanghai stock exchange system has been bought up by investors. as soon as the market opened this morning, some investors made half of the down payment for a house in guangzhou.

then, we saw the news: guangzhou has completely relaxed purchase restrictions!

unexpectedly, the ultimate move came so violently. it was definitely a moment to witness history. after 14 years, first-tier cities have once again completely lifted purchase restrictions.

the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities has sent the strongest signal to save the property market:

the property market must be saved!

late at night on september 29, guangzhou couldn’t wait to take action. the guangzhou municipal government issued the "notice on adjusting measures for the stable and healthy development of the city's real estate market", officially announcing:

"abolition of various purchase restriction policies for residential households to purchase housing in this city."

fewer words mean bigger things. since then, guangzhou became the first first-tier city to fully lift purchase restrictions. the property market has officially entered a new stage of "buying if you want to sell, anyone can buy".

source: guangzhou municipal government official website

guangzhou and shenzhen have always been chasing each other in terms of property market policies.

after the official announcement in guangzhou, shenzhen it also issued a "notice on further optimizing policies and measures for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market" and quickly introduced loosening policies.

the most important thing is that purchase restrictions have been lifted in shenzhen’s outer districts. it mainly includes 7 districts including yantian district, bao'an district (excluding xin'an street and xixiang street), longgang district, longhua district, pingshan district, guangming district, and dapeng new district.

you know, guangzhou followed this route before completely lifting purchase restrictions. there will be no purchase restrictions in the outer area first, then there will be no purchase restrictions in the core area for large apartments, and finally there will be no purchase restrictions in all.

in addition, restrictions on the sale of houses and apartments have been cancelled, the vat exemption period has been changed from 5 to 2, a down payment of 15% for the first home, and a 20% down payment for the second home, etc.

compared with guangzhou, the intensity is obviously reduced by several percent, but it can still be regarded as a punch to the flesh.

source: shenzhen release

earlier, shanghai the "shanghai 7 articles" were released——

source: really named lu jun

compared with the wide and deep scale, it can only be said to be childish. but for shanghai itself, it is already very open.

according to the estimate of "really called lu jun", just the change of "the social security period for households outside the outer ring road/single buying a house has been changed from 3 years to 1 year". approximately 2.13 million room tickets can be released.

even if only 5% of people buy a house, they still have a purchasing power of 100,000 level!

only remains north beijing when i woke up, i found myself "isolated" in a first-tier city.

after a crazy night, someone concluded:

beijing still wears bikinis, shanghai only wears panties, shenzhen only wears thongs, guangzhou strips off, and other cities are already streaking.

netizens in tianjin and hainan were already anxious. except for first-tier cities across the country, these two brothers are the only ones who stick to purchase restrictions. now that even first-tier cities have been liberalized, what are you waiting for? i'm afraid i forgot that i am still restricting purchases.

chief ren, who has transitioned into the hair transplant industry, couldn’t help but come back to complain:

the biggest concern is tianjin, a magical city. what’s going on with the real estate market? if purchase restrictions haven’t been lifted yet, are your fundamentals better than those of guangzhou and shenzhen?

first-tier cities have fully relaxed purchase restrictions, which has sent the strongest signal to save the property market.

you know, starting from 2010, first-tier cities officially started the "era of purchase restrictions." after that, no matter how bad the market was, even if housing prices experienced a 30% correction, no first-tier city would completely lift purchase restrictions.

what does this mean? purchase restrictions in first-tier cities have been the “lower limit” of policies in the past and cannot be broken.

as guangzhou waved its sleeves, there is obviously no lower limit to save the property market.

when it comes to property market policies, guangzhou has always been the "vanguard" of first-tier cities. guangzhou is not the first to lift purchase restrictions, nor will it be the last.

we have reason to believe that if the feedback from the market is not enough, it is not a foolish dream to fully relax purchase restrictions in shenzhen, no purchase restrictions outside the outer ring of shanghai, or even no purchase restrictions in the outer suburbs of beijing.

at the high-level meeting held on september 26, it was proposed to "promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize."

how can one disobey an order? the place can’t wait. the reality is: if the property market is not good, the policy will not stop!

in the past three years, the property market has experienced a long and severe winter. second-hand housing prices in beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen have fallen across the board.

in the past year, the decline in second-hand housing in guangzhou ranked fourth in the country, and shenzhen ranked 11th.

the latest housing price data for 70 cities from the national bureau of statistics reveals a cruel reality: in the face of the cold winter of the property market, there is no independent market, and first-tier cities are still bruised and bruised.

first-tier cities will always rise, which is the last confidence in the property market. when confidence has hit rock bottom, ordinary policy red envelopes can no longer stir up any waves.

to save the property market, it has become urgent and urgent, and "strong medicine" must be administered.

the strong medicine is administered and the effect is immediate. overnight, from the stock market to real estate auctions, from real estate companies to property owners, the market was completely on fire.

real estate stocks have completely taken off!

since september 26, real estate stocks have collectively risen sharply for many consecutive days. as soon as the market opened this morning, there was another gorgeous wave of rising prices.

the a-share real estate sector collectively rose sharply, with nearly 20 stocks including vanke, oct, cinda real estate, gemdale group, greenland holdings, and shanghai lingang opening at or close to their daily limit.

the domestic real estate sector of hong kong stocks also broke out collectively. the hang seng real estate and construction index rose 6.4%. r&f properties, longguang group, sunac china and other stocks rose more than 20%, and longfor group and vanke rose more than 15%.

the local auction market has finally swept away its decline and is starting to heat up!

in guangzhou, shenzhen and chengdu, high-premium land parcels and “land kings” have returned.

on september 26, after more than 80 rounds of bidding by 9 real estate companies, a land plot in baoan, shenzhen was finally sold with a total price of 2.82 billion yuan and a floor price of 52,222 yuan/square meter. the premium rate is 35.58%.

on september 27, a 37-acre plot of land in luhu, chengdu attracted 10 companies to participate in the auction, with more than 100 rounds of bidding, and was finally sold with a premium rate of 86.9% and a floor price of 24,300 yuan/square meter. it has set a new floor price record in tianfu new district and ranks third in chengdu’s floor price record.

on september 29, after 148 rounds of fierce bidding, the guangzhou nanfang flour mill land was sold at a price of 11.76 billion yuan and a transaction floor price of 66,957 yuan/square meter, becoming the new “king of unit price land” in tianhe district and the top two land parcels in guangzhou land auction prices.

in the first half of this year, the income from land auctions in many cities experienced a "cliff-like" decline. local finances saw this and were anxious.

now we are taking advantage of the newly released policies to heat up the land market and rush to sell land in the fourth quarter.

developers actually started to announce price increases!

a few days ago, “many real estate companies announced price increases” became the top trending topic on weibo.

on september 28, henan local real estate company henan zhuokai real estate co., ltd. issued a document stating that starting from 24:00 on september 30, it will price the properties for sale in its evergreen jinshui chenyuan project. increase by 2% (about 300 yuan/square meter).

zhuhai there is a wave of rising prices for new homes. according to incomplete statistics, 10 real estate properties have collectively announced price increases.dongguan several new listings were announced, discounts would be withdrawn from october 1, and the slogan "respond to stop the decline" was even issued.

the landlord who was crying after being bargained for was also starting to get excited!

china resources city runfu, a benchmark project in shenzhen, is rumored on the internet to have an owner increase the price from 20 million to 28.88 million in one go. it’s so scary!

source: internet

the intermediary "refuted the rumors" and said that it was not that exaggerated, but several cheap houses have been counter-priced, basically around 300,000. the listing price of an 87-square-meter house in runfu phase iii has been increased by 1.04 million.

source: taofangzhi

guangzhou's "top-notch school district house" dongfeng plaza was originally agreed to be sold for 6.8 million, but suddenly the policy came out and the owner countered the price on the spot. the final transaction price was 7.24 million, which was more than 400,000 more expensive than before.

source: guangzhou real estate

looking across the country, owners in first- and second-tier cities such as dongguan, xiamen, chengdu, hefei, etc. have all taken notice and started to increase prices. the difficulty of finding bamboo shoots is probably going to be greatly increased now.

the atmosphere has been heightened here, are house prices really going to rebound?

purchase restriction policies are never a panacea.

in the past, home purchase restrictions have not been able to stop housing prices from rising. now, lifting purchase restrictions will not revive the property market overnight.

according to data from the china index academy, in august this year, the prices of second-hand housing in the 100 cities it monitored across the country all fell month-on-month, and they have shown collective decline for five consecutive months.

this, of course, includes all cities that have lifted purchase restrictions.

on the contrary, house prices may continue to decline in the short term.

after other cities lifted purchase restrictions, they basically ushered in a wave of second-hand house listings.

on may 9 this year, hangzhou completely lifted purchase restrictions. on the day the new deal was introduced, the number of second-hand housing listings surged. according to data from the hangzhou shell research institute, compared with the single-day average in april, the number of second-hand housing inquiries on the first day of the new deal increased by 54%, and the number of new second-hand housing sales increased by 91%.

obviously, there are not as many buyers as there are sellers. it’s still a home buying market. after all, there are only a few owners who counter-price, and the majority are those who sell at reduced prices.

if there is an owner who is aggressive and counter-bids by hundreds of thousands, i suggest you just turn around and walk away and buy the cheaper one from your neighbor.

in the game between buyers and sellers, the clearing of the property market will accelerate.

in the past, due to purchase restrictions, a lot of "scarcity" was forcibly created. for example, after beijing tightened its purchase restrictions, a large amount of hot money poured into yanjiao, and housing prices once rose to 40,000 per square meter, which was even more expensive than the suburbs of beijing.

yanjiao's population, industry and supporting facilities certainly cannot support the housing price of 40,000 per square meter. after the tide receded, housing prices in yanjiao halved.

in the same way, there are foshan and qingyuan in guangzhou, zengcheng in guangzhou, dongguan and huizhou in shenzhen.

now, first-tier cities have also lost the fig leaf of purchase restrictions, and the differentiation of property values ​​will further accelerate.

specifically, a large number of old and small, sub-new houses in outer suburbs will continue to repeat the fate of price involution, with prices reduced and then reduced again, getting closer and closer to the true value.

the "bamboo shoots" that are relatively scarce on the market and are in good locations, good apartment types, good prices, and new buildings will be quickly consumed. the core areas of first-tier cities will be the first to recover.

the lifting of purchase restrictions is not the beginning of a rebound in housing prices, but the clearing of the property market has finally entered the final stage.

in the past two decades, our housing prices have risen from a few hundred per square meter to tens of thousands per square meter, not because of purchase restrictions, but because of the largest urbanization in global history.

today, our population size, per capita housing area, and residents’ leverage ratio have all “peaked.” the dividend of the times, where housing prices doubled in a few years, will never happen again.

the "new housing reform" has predicted that the future of china's real estate will be dual-track system.

the affordable housing provided by the government meets the most basic housing needs. commercial housing is used to meet improvement needs and is gradually becoming high-end and customized.

"houses are for living in, not for speculation."

doesn’t this come true?