before the a-share market opens on september 30, real estate will receive many positive benefits
2024-09-30
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september 30 is the last trading day before the national day holiday for a-shares.
just on the evening of september 29, the central bank and the state administration of financial supervision issued four policies to stabilize real estate, including guiding banks to lower existing mortgage interest rates before the end of october, unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages to 15%, and extending the deadline for some real estate financial policy documents. , optimize refinancing policies for affordable housing, etc.
dazhong news reporters noticed that the self-regulatory mechanism for market interest rate pricing also released the "initiative on batch adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates" on september 29.subsequently, the four major banks of industry, agriculture, china construction bank issued documents stating that they are working hard to formulate an implementation plan for batch adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates, which will be released on october 12, 2024 through the bank’s official website, official wechat public account, loan agency, 95566 and other channels specific implementation details will be implemented, and batch adjustments to existing mortgage interest rates will be implemented before october 31, 2024.
at the same time, mass news reporters learned from the china real estate association that the association issued a development plan to the entire industry."hundred cities commercial housing promotion event"initiative, focus on uniting relevant social organizations in october this year to mobilize and support more than 100 cities to participate in commercial housing promotion activities.focus on mobilizing real estate industry organizations and enterprises in 70 large and medium-sized cities to actively organize and carry out promotional activities, such as holding real estate exhibitions and organizing on-site viewings, etc., to promote the real estate market to stabilize and promote the healthy development of the industry.
the specific policy provisions of the four policies to stabilize real estate are:
1. announcement of the people's bank of china on improving the interest rate pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans ("people's bank of china announcement [2024] no. 11") and answers to reporters' questions;
2. "notice of the people's bank of china and the state administration of financial supervision on optimizing the minimum down payment ratio policy for personal housing loans";
3. "notice of the general office of the people's bank of china on optimizing relevant requirements for refinancing of affordable housing";
4. "notice of the people's bank of china and the state administration of financial supervision on extending the period of some real estate financial policies."
the existing mortgage interest rate reduction will be implemented before the end of october
or will be lower than 3.55%
the relevant person in charge of the people's bank of china stated that according to the contract, the additional points on the lpr basis of the mortgage loan will be fixed during the contract period. mortgage contract terms are generally long, and the fixed point margin cannot reflect changes in borrower credit, market supply and demand and other factors. once the market situation changes, it is easy to cause the spread between new and old mortgages to widen. as the market-oriented reform of interest rates continues to deepen, it is necessary to optimize the system design and promote commercial banks and borrowers to change their contracts in an appropriate manner.
the people's bank of china announcement [2024] no. 11 has two key points:the first is to allow changes in the percentage points added to the mortgage interest rate based on the lpr. the second is to remove the restriction on the minimum one-year mortgage interest rate repricing cycle.
in other words, it is allowed to change the point range of the mortgage interest rate based on the lpr, and the borrower and the borrower can adjust the point range through negotiation, contract changes, etc. moreover, starting from november 1, floating rate mortgages with newly signed contracts will be consistent with other floating rate loans except mortgages, and the repricing cycle can be determined by the borrower and the borrower through independent negotiation.the vast majority of borrowers can complete "one-click operation" through online banking, mobile banking and other channels, without going to commercial bank branches.
according to the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism, an initiative will be issued to guide commercial banks to carry out abatch adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates. for existing mortgage interest rates with point additions higher than -30 basis points,adjust uniformity to no less than -30 basis points, and not lower than the minimum point limit for new mortgage loans currently implemented in the city where you are located (if any). after the adjustment, the existing mortgage interest rate will drop to approximately lpr (3.85%)-30bp=3.55%, which is slightly lower than the national average interest rate for new mortgage loans in the first eight months of 2024 (3.61%).
it is worth noting that the central bank announced that starting from september 27, the open market 7-day reverse repurchase (7-day omo) operating interest rate will be adjusted from the previous 1.70% to 1.50%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points.it is generally believed in the industry that lpr quotations are expected to be reduced as soon as october 21. if the lpr is lowered, after loan repricing, the adjusted existing mortgage interest rate will be significantly lower than 3.55%.
in addition, the package of policies proposed by the central bank on september 24 have all been implemented, such as adjusting the financial support ratio of 300 billion yuan in affordable housing re-loans from the original 60% to 100%; supporting local state-owned enterprises to acquire unfinished buildings at reasonable prices. the commercial buildings sold will be used as placement-type or rental-type affordable housing; for operating property loans and "financial article 16" policy documents due before the end of the year, the applicable period will be extended to december 31, 2026.
wang qing, chief macro analyst of oriental jincheng, believes that these policies will significantly speed up the acquisition of existing commercial housing in various places for use as affordable housing and alleviate inventory pressure on the commercial housing market.
shanghai releases 7 more new property market policies
it is worth noting that also on the evening of september 29, the shanghai municipal housing and urban-rural development management committee’s official wechat message further optimized the real estate market, which mainly involves adjusting housing purchase restriction policies, optimizing housing credit policies, and adjusting housing tax policies.
especially mentioned,for families and single persons who are not registered residents of this city and purchase housing outside the outer ring road, the number of years required to pay social insurance or personal income tax for the purchase of the house will be adjusted to the period of continuous payment for one year or more before the date of purchase.the shortening of the social security payment period will speed up the fulfillment of the home purchase qualifications of non-shanghai residents in shanghai, especially the new people who have entered shanghai for employment in recent years, and will obtain the home purchase qualifications faster.
to adjust the value-added tax collection and exemption period,the value-added tax exemption period for individual external sales of housing will be adjusted from 5 years to 2 years.the policy will be effective from october 1, 2024. previously, in january 2021, the "opinions on promoting the stable and healthy development of the city's real estate market" jointly issued by eight departments including the shanghai municipal housing and urban-rural development commission and the housing authority adjusted the value-added tax collection and exemption period and exempted individuals from the value-added tax on external sales of housing. the service period was increased from 2 years to 5 years. industry insiders said that this policy adjustment has better supported the demand for improved housing. combined with the withdrawal of ordinary residential standards, it will have a better burden-reducing effect.
real estate welcomes good news again
volkswagen news reporters saw from wind that the a-share real estate-related sectors had a cumulative increase of more than 20% in a week. from september 23 to september 27, the shanghai composite index rose by 12.81% cumulatively. looking at the shenwan sector, the real estate services sector increased by 20.74%, and the real estate development sector increased by 20.12%.
on the 29th, shanghai shenyin & wanguo securities research released a research report stating that after the politburo meeting set the tone, fiscal and monetary policies were launched. at the same time, after the fundamentals of real estate have undergone in-depth adjustments, the current mortgage burden ratio, rental return rate, number of units started per thousand people, etc. three major bottom signals appeared, and it is expected that real estate will bottom out and stabilize under the promotion of policies, maintaining the "optimistic" rating of real estate.
it is worth noting that in recent days, news about the real estate industry has been frequent. polys in many places, including jinan poly, have launched "price guarantee agreements." a project of jinan poly stated that it guarantees that the price of the first product of the project will not be higher than the later sales price of units with the same building area, the same location, and the same floor. if the price of similar products decreases, the first owner can safely replace the house with the same area and adjusted price before delivery (a house with the same building area and type, and a lower total price in the same location).
at the same time, many real estate companies in chengdu and henan officially announced price increases. on the 28th, henan local real estate company henan zhuokai real estate issued a document stating that starting from 24:00 on september 30, the selling prices of its evergreen jinshuichenyuan project will increase by 2% (about 300 yuan/square meter).
(popular news reporter dai yue)
