the center sets the tone! five keywords to “set the focus” for real estate work
2024-09-27
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the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and plan the next economic work.
this meeting rarely deployed real estate-related work in a large space, and many of the statements were made for the first time. how to understand the deployment of real estate-related work at this meeting? the following five keywords will "focus" for you.
keywords: "stop falling and stabilize"
looking back at previous politburo meetings, the idea of “promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize” appeared for the first time.
li yujia, chief researcher of the housing policy research center of the guangdong provincial institute of urban planning, said that this means a new understanding of the current real estate situation, which is completely different from the statement in the second quarter. the direct reason is that the "may 17" policy was relatively strong, including large-scale stimulus in first-tier cities from may to june, but the effect only lasted for 2 months, which greatly exceeded expectations. currently, the downward pressure on real estate is relatively high, and a negative feedback loop of weak expectations and downward volume and price has been formed, with both supply and demand also shrinking in negative feedback. the contraction of the entire industrial chain caused by this decline is an important source of recent "deflation".
yan yuejin, deputy director of shanghai yiju real estate research institute, said that this is the first very clear instruction given by the political bureau of the central committee of the communist party of china on the real estate market, that is, to "stop falling and stabilize." "stop the fall" here includes both the stop of the decline in trading volume and the stop of the decline in the transaction price. in august, from the data point of view, the pressure on the property market to adjust has increased, and markets in many places have reported that there is pressure to stall demand. the four words "stop falling and return to stability" are very clear signals, which also means that various regions may continue to implement heavy-weighting policies in the fourth quarter to better promote the real estate market to stop falling and return to stability.
keywords: strictly control increment
also proposed for the first time is the term “strictly controlling increments”. the meeting of the political bureau of the central committee pointed out that the construction of commercial housing must strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, and improve the quality.
chen wenjing, policy research director of the zhongzhi research institute, said that this formulation is different from the previous formulation, and more emphasis is placed on strict control in terms of increment, which means that in the future, the supply of land and housing in various places will be based on the actual needs of the city itself. to advance, we cannot blindly expand supply; optimizing the stock means upgrading and renovating the existing housing stock, planning and revitalizing it, etc., which may be an important direction; in terms of improving quality, the construction of "good houses" may already be a basic requirement, and promoting " supporting policies for the construction of “good houses” are expected to continue to be implemented.
li yujia said that among them, strict control over increment was proposed for the first time, which means that all localities must strictly control the supply of new land and the supply of new houses on the market. at present, the inventory cycle of new homes for sale in many places is about 20 months, and inventory pressure is increasing. strictly controlling the increase can alleviate inventory pressure. this is a tool to boost expectations and promote short-term stabilization.
keywords: “whitelist” project loans
the meeting of the political bureau of the cpc central committee stated that it will increase the loan supply for "white list" projects and support the revitalization of idle land.
the "white list" system has been implemented since the beginning of this year. according to data released by the state administration of financial supervision on september 24, so far, commercial banks have approved more than 5,700 "whitelist" projects, with an approved financing amount of 1.43 trillion yuan, supporting the on-schedule delivery of more than 4 million housing units. in the future, it is still expected to intensify efforts and advance in depth, better play the role of the project financing "white list", improve the corporate capital environment, and ensure project delivery.
"it can be seen that the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism has made positive progress, and is still expected to increase its efforts and advance in depth in the future to better play the role of the project financing 'white list', improve the corporate capital environment, and ensure project delivery. it will also further stabilize the expectations of home buyers," chen wenjing said.
keywords: responding to public concerns
the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust housing purchase restriction policies, and reduce existing mortgage interest rates.
guo lei, chief economist of gf securities, believes that adjusting the housing purchase restriction policy is currently the most flexible area of real estate policy. he said that from the perspective of existing policies, the minimum down payment ratio for unified mortgage loans to 15%, which was implemented on september 24, and support for land and housing acquisition and storage have been strengthened to a certain extent. if the purchase restrictions are further relaxed, it should have an impact on the volume and price trends of the real estate market. make a positive impact.
the arrangement to lower existing mortgage interest rates has been "finalized." the people's bank of china will guide commercial banks to lower existing mortgage interest rates to near the new loan interest rates, with the average reduction expected to be around 0.5 percentage points.
pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, said that because there are many borrowers involved, banks also need a certain amount of time to make necessary technical preparations. in the next step, the central bank is also considering instructing commercial banks to improve the pricing mechanism of mortgage loans, and both banks and customers will make dynamic adjustments through independent negotiation based on market-oriented principles.
at present, many commercial banks have made it clear that they are waiting for the regulatory authorities to issue relevant rules. some banks are already studying relevant plans and specific operating rules, and all work is proceeding in an orderly manner.
keywords: new model of real estate development
the meeting called for efforts to improve land, taxation, finance and other policies to promote the construction of a new model for real estate development.
yan yuejin believes that the core point of this formulation is "grasp", which also means that the work on the new model of real estate development will be accelerated. judging from the key points of the recent new model of real estate development, work such as sales of existing houses will continue to be carried out. at the same time, efforts will continue to be made in financial support, promotion of the housing pension system, and construction of high-quality housing. this is also the pilot work in various places in the fourth quarter. actively follow content.
(comprehensive compilation by mass news reporter hu yu)
