investment in real estate development began to stabilize in august, with prices of new and second-hand houses falling month-on-month | high-frequency macro view
2024-09-27
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1. china high-frequency economic activity index from china business research institute
on september 24, 2024, the china high-frequency economic activity index (yhei) of the first financial research institute was 0.88, an increase of 0.04 from september 17. in the week ending september 24, the service industry-related indicators "commercial housing sales index in 30 cities" and the "subway traffic index in 8 cities" rebounded by 0.07 and 0.02 respectively; the industry-related indicator "imported dry bulk freight price index" continued to rise. 0.10 to 1.15, the rise of the above sub-indicators is an important reason for the rise of yhei this week.
2. overall judgment of weekly situation
steel billet prices rebounded this week, rising by 1.03% in the week to september 24, rising by 1.03% in the past month, and falling by 17.00% compared with the same period last year. cement prices continue to move higher, rising by 0.79% in the week ended september 24, rising by 1.53% in the past month, and rising by 10.44% from the same period last year. thermal coal prices were flat over the past month and down 1.52% from the same period last year.
in the week ending september 24, the central bank invested a net 1,612.6 billion yuan in funds through the open market. the interbank overnight interest rate increased by 4 basis points in the week ended september 24, and fell by 1.6 basis points in the past month, and was 5.8 basis points lower than the same period last year. the seven-day repo rate has increased by 15 basis points in the past week, 13 basis points in the past month, and 20 basis points compared with the same period last year.
the national bureau of statistics released real estate-related data for august. in terms of investment, from january to august, the completed investment in real estate development was 6.928355 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, and the growth rate was the same as that of the previous month. on september 24, li yunze, director of the state financial supervision and administration bureau, said at a press conference held by the state council information office that as of the end of august, real estate development loans had achieved positive growth compared with the beginning of the year, reversing the downward trend. judging from high-frequency data, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales related to real estate development has maintained positive growth for five consecutive months since march, further proving that my country's real estate development investment is stabilizing and improving. in terms of housing types, in august, the year-on-year decline in investment completion in residential development narrowed 0.1 percentage points from january to july to 10.5%; the cumulative year-on-year decline in investment completion in office building development expanded 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 6.4%. ; the cumulative investment in commercial housing development fell by 13.2% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
in terms of prices, month-on-month, the price index of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to fall in august, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. on a year-on-year basis, in august, the price index declines for new and second-hand houses expanded to 5.7% and 8.6% respectively from 5.3% and 8.2% in the previous month. among them, the year-on-year decline in the second-hand housing price index in first-tier cities expanded by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month to 9.4%; the year-on-year decline in the new housing price index in first-tier cities was the same as last month, and the year-on-year decline in the price index of two types of housing in second- and third-tier cities expanded.
in terms of sales, high-frequency data shows that the trends of new homes and second-hand homes are divergent. the average daily transaction area of new homes in august dropped by 26,200 square meters from the previous month, and the average daily transaction area of second-hand homes dropped by 36,700 square meters from the previous month.
3. data for one week (2024.9.18-2024.9.24)
1. central bank monetary operations
2. interest rates and social financing
3. corporate sector
1) secondary industry
2) shipping
3) real estate market
4. residential department
5. global perspective
(source of the title picture of this article: china business news)
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text | huang xiaoting, researcher at china first financial research institute
(this article comes from china business news)
