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meijing ai news,china galaxy securities released a research report on september 24, giving the real estate industry a recommendation rating.

event: on september 24, 2024, the state council information office held a press conference, and the central bank, the hong kong monetary authority, the china securities regulatory commission and other departments introduced the relevant situation of financial support for high-quality economic development. the central bank, together with the financial supervision administration, issued five real estate finance policies.

centrally introduce policies to support the real estate industry in all aspects. on september 24, 2024, the central bank, together with the financial supervision administration, introduced five new policies for real estate finance: guiding banks to lower the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgage loans to 15%, extending the deadlines of two real estate finance policy documents, optimizing the policy on refinancing of affordable housing, and supporting the acquisition of existing land of real estate companies. the above five new policies provide support for the existing market of the real estate market, the demand side of the real estate market, the supply side of the real estate market, the inventory side of the real estate market, and the existing land of real estate companies.

stock: reduce the pressure of housing loans for residents. the central bank mentioned that it would guide banks to reduce the interest rates of existing housing loans to near the interest rates of newly issued housing loans, and the average reduction is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points. banks lowering the interest rates of existing housing loans will help further reduce the interest expenses of borrowers. the central bank expects that this reduction in the interest rates of existing housing loans is expected to benefit 50 million households, and the average annual reduction in the total interest expenses of households is about 150 billion yuan, which may increase the disposable income of residents outside of housing loans, help expand consumption and investment on the resident side, and indirectly maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

increment: continue to support the demand for improvement housing. the central bank mentioned that commercial personal housing loans at the national level will no longer distinguish between first and second homes, and the minimum down payment ratio will be unified at 15%. previously, under the 517 policy, the minimum down payment ratios for the first and second homes were 15% and 25%, respectively. this time, the minimum down payment ratios for the first and second homes will be adjusted to 15%, mainly to lower the purchase threshold for second home buyers, and the demand for improvement housing will be further supported. at present, the down payment ratios for second homes in the four first-tier cities are 35% in beijing (30% outside the fifth ring road), 35% in shanghai (30% in some areas), 25% in guangzhou, and 30% in shenzhen. in the context of city-specific policies, the improvement demand of some high-energy cities is expected to be released. under the current policy, if real estate companies increase their efforts to promote and sell houses, the overall transaction volume of the real estate market may be effectively boosted.

supply: continue to support the real estate industry. previously, the central bank issued the "16 financial measures" and related policies on commercial property loans. this time, the expiration date of the two policies will be extended from december 31, 2024 to december 31, 2026. the 16 financial measures mainly support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market from the aspects of financing and guaranteed delivery of buildings; the commercial property loan policy mainly supports the financing of real estate companies. we believe that the extension of the policy expiration date indicates the continued support of the central bank and the state administration of financial supervision for the real estate industry.

inventory: accelerate the promotion of storage and destocking. the central bank will increase the proportion of the central bank's investment in affordable housing refinancing from 60% to 100%. on may 17, the central bank announced the establishment of 300 billion affordable housing refinancing to guide financial institutions to support local state-owned enterprises in purchasing completed but unsold commercial housing at reasonable prices in accordance with market-oriented and rule-of-law principles for use as allotment or rental affordable housing. previously, the central bank's investment ratio was 60%, that is, 60% of the loans issued by commercial banks came from the central bank; after the central bank's investment ratio was increased to 100%, 100% of the loans issued by commercial banks came from the central bank. therefore, the cost of acquisition funds is expected to be further reduced, the acquisition willingness of the acquisition entity may increase, and the process of storage and destocking of commercial housing is expected to accelerate.

land: policy space for real estate companies to acquire land has been opened up. the central bank and the state administration of financial supervision will study allowing policy banks and commercial banks to lend to qualified enterprises to acquire land from real estate companies in a market-oriented manner. the central bank can also provide re-lending support when necessary. land is one of the important stock assets on the balance sheet of real estate companies. if a policy for market-oriented acquisition of land from real estate companies is introduced and corresponding monetary support is provided, the stock land assets of real estate companies are expected to be revitalized and the capital pressure of real estate companies is expected to be alleviated. we believe that the policy is still in the research stage and the policy space for the real estate industry has been further opened up.

investment advice: the central bank, together with the financial supervision bureau, has issued a new real estate financial policy to provide all-round support for the demand and supply sides of the property market, the destocking and storage of houses, and the land market. we believe that the impact of this policy is wide and the effect is strong. as the policy is gradually implemented, the effect may gradually emerge. we believe that the policy is expected to play a positive role in improving the industry, and the industry valuation may be repaired. the leading real estate companies have excellent operational management capabilities and financial advantages, and their market share is expected to rise further. we are optimistic about: china merchants shekou, poly development, longfor group, vanke a, binjiang group, sunac china holdings, china merchants property; we recommend focusing on: 1) high-quality development: greentown china, china resources land, china overseas land & investment; 2) high-quality property management: china resources vanguard; 3) high-quality commercial: zhangjiang hi-tech park, hang lung properties; 4) construction leader: greentown management holdings; 5) intermediary leader: shell-w, woaiwojia.

risk warning: risk of policy promotion failing to meet expectations, risk of city-specific policies failing to meet expectations, risk of macroeconomic performance failing to meet expectations, risk of funds being less than expected, and risk of large fluctuations in housing prices.

every headline (nbdtoutiao)——

(reporter wang xiaobo)

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