the reduction of existing housing loans has not yet taken place. some homebuyers have planned to travel. the industry expects that this may be implemented in october.
2024-09-26
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"if the interest rate on my second mortgage loan can be lowered, i'm planning to go traveling." on september 25, chen yi, who lives in beijing, told shell finance that she immediately consulted the bank's mortgage account manager after hearing the news that the interest rate on existing mortgage loans would be lowered yesterday. although the reply she received was "not so fast" and "still need to wait for the details to be released", chen yi is still full of expectations.
on september 24, pan gongsheng, governor of the central bank, said at a press conference held by the state council information office that commercial banks will be guided to reduce the interest rates of existing mortgage loans to near the interest rates of new loans, with an average reduction of about 0.5 percentage points. however, due to the large number of borrowers involved, banks need some time to make necessary technical preparations.
insiders from several banks also told shell finance that banks are currently waiting for specific implementation details from the financial regulatory authorities and are debugging their equipment. some bank insiders expect that the adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates will be implemented as soon as after the national day holiday.
according to the central bank's calculations, this round of adjustment of the interest rates on existing mortgage loans will benefit 50 million households and 150 million people, reducing the total interest expenditure of households by about 150 billion yuan per year on average. pan gongsheng pointed out that this will help promote the expansion of consumption and investment, reduce early repayment of loans, and reduce the space for illegal replacement of existing mortgage loans, protect the legitimate rights and interests of financial consumers, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
100thousands of loans30annual monthly payment can be saved300yuanmany buyers said they would use the money for consumption
"if mortgage rates drop, i would like to go out for a big dinner with friends and buy some practical new furniture for my home." this was the answer from beijing white-collar worker wang li when asked by a reporter from shell finance what she most wanted to do after mortgage rates dropped.
like wang li, chen yi also thought of consumption at the first time. she originally thought of paying off her mortgage in advance, but after the news that the interest rate of existing mortgages was about to drop came out, she said that she "basically gave up this idea." she told reporters that her original second mortgage interest rate was still as high as 5%, and she hoped to benefit from the drop in mortgage interest rates this time. her mortgage interest rate is 130 basis points higher than the current 3.7% second mortgage interest rate (outside the fifth ring road of beijing).
the gap between the current existing mortgage interest rate and the new mortgage interest rate is too large, which has led to the phenomenon of early repayments by banks again. this is not only not conducive to the stability of banking business, but also has an impact on consumption. therefore, there has been a big discussion on whether the interest rate of second mortgage loans should also be included in the adjustment range.
if the adjustment of the interest rate on existing mortgage loans is implemented, yan yuejin, deputy director of the shanghai e-house real estate research institute, did some calculations: if calculated according to the "average reduction of 0.5 percentage points" stated by the central bank, for a loan principal of 1 million and a 30-year equal principal and interest repayment method, the monthly payment can be reduced by 300 yuan.
how will the interest rates on existing mortgages be adjusted?1may see another downward adjustment
the details of the current adjustment of the interest rate on existing mortgage loans have not yet been released, and the adjustment of the interest rate on existing mortgage loans may still include adjusting the additional points.
in fact, the mortgage interest rate is based on the loan market quotation rate (lpr) of more than 5 years, so the mortgage interest rate consists of two parts: lpr and the additional points. last year, the batch adjustment of the existing mortgage interest rates was the additional points.
"this adjustment should be similar to the last one, with the main adjustment being the added point." dong ximiao, chief researcher at china unionpay, said the lpr part has its own rules, which means that home buyers' mortgage interest rates will also enjoy the benefits of the lpr reduction.
since the beginning of this year, the lpr for loans with a term of more than 5 years has dropped by 25 basis points. recently, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which is the policy interest rate, has dropped by another 20 basis points. the market expects that the lpr for loans with a term of more than 5 years will also be reduced by 20 basis points this year. for homebuyers whose mortgage interest rate reset date is between the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the mortgage interest rate is expected to drop by about 45 basis points.
in addition, dong ximiao said that the interest rate of the second set of housing loans may be the focus of the adjustment. the reason why the interest rate and down payment ratio of the second set of housing loans are different from those of the first set is that the overheated real estate market needs to curb investment and speculative purchases. however, the central bank has stated at the press conference that the minimum down payment ratio for the second set of housing and the first set of housing will be unified, which sends a clear signal to support and encourage residents to buy second sets of housing and better meet the demand for improved housing consumption.
lowering the interest rates on existing mortgage loans to stimulate consumptionbut it should not become the normpolicy
"lowering the interest rates on existing mortgage loans is a special policy implemented in special times and should not be normalized or implemented frequently." industry insiders believe that adjusting the interest rates on existing mortgage loans, as real estate depends on finance in the short term and population in the long term, and continued adjustments to housing credit policies will help further stabilize residents' confidence in housing consumption and thereby increase their willingness and ability to consume housing, but it should not be a normalized policy.
dong ximiao said that after the concentrated reduction of existing mortgage rates in september 2023, if the existing mortgage rates are reduced again in 2024, it will inevitably have an impact on commercial banks, especially large commercial banks with a high mortgage ratio.
according to cicc's estimates, assuming that the 1-year and 5-year lprs are lowered by 20 basis points and the existing mortgage rates are lowered by an average of 50 basis points, the impact on the interest rate spread will be 9 basis points and 6 basis points respectively, or about 15 basis points in total; assuming that the deposit rate is lowered by 25 basis points and the reserve requirement ratio is lowered by 50 basis points, the impact on the bank's interest rate spread can be basically offset.
in order to reduce the impact of the reduction in existing mortgage rates on bank interest margins, the financial regulatory authorities will also implement relevant policies to reduce interest rates and reserve requirements while adjusting existing mortgage rates. among them, the central bank will reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points in the near future, providing the market with about 1 trillion yuan of funds, which can be used as a low-cost source of funds for banks; at the same time, the central bank will also guide the loan market quotation rate and deposit rate to decline simultaneously to maintain the stability of commercial banks' net interest margins.
according to the central bank's calculations, the overall impact of this interest rate adjustment on bank interest margins is neutral. the market expects that it is necessary to maintain a reasonable interest margin and profit for banks in order to maintain financial system stability. however, banks still need to further strengthen capital and liability management to stabilize interest margins.
beijing news shell financial reporter jiang fan editor chen li proofreading xue jingning
