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does the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles mean that they have replaced traditional vehicles? experts say this logic does not hold true

2024-09-25

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our reporters yin limei and zhang shuo report from beijing

"whether it is the 'new four modernizations', 'new five modernizations' or 'new three modernizations', the key core element may still be low carbonization. we must develop energy-saving technologies. it does not mean that the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will replace traditional vehicles. this logic is not valid. energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles promote and complement each other. if we all go for new energy without paying attention to the development of energy-saving technologies, we may make a historic mistake. for example, won't we develop our styling technology? will we not talk about our aerodynamics? will we not talk about our low wind resistance and low rolling resistance technologies? without these core cores, how can we develop our new energy vehicles?"

on september 24, fu yuwu, honorary chairman of the china society of automotive engineers, expressed the above view at the 2024 alcohol-hydrogen electric vehicle development forum. he repeatedly said that although the development of new energy vehicles emphasizes electric vehicles as the main body, this does not conflict with the diversified power development technology route of my country's automobile industry, and we must follow market laws.

“the pursuit of improving the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines has not stopped”

energy-saving vehicles refer to vehicles that use internal combustion engines as their main power system and have comprehensive fuel consumption that is better than the target value for the next stage, mainly including advanced gasoline and diesel vehicles, alternative fuel vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc. new energy vehicles in my country mainly include pure electric vehicles, plug-in (including extended-range) hybrid vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.

like new energy vehicles, energy-saving vehicles are also one of the key development directions of my country's automobile industry.

a reporter from china business news noted that the technology roadmap 2.0 for energy-saving and new energy vehicles, jointly compiled by the ministry of industry and information technology and the china society of automotive engineers, points out that in the next 5-10 years, traditional internal combustion engine vehicles will still occupy an important share of automobile products. therefore, increasing the proportion of energy-saving vehicles in traditional power vehicles and promoting the application of hybrid power and advanced energy-saving technologies in energy-saving vehicles are important guarantees for my country's automobile industry to reduce energy consumption, alleviate environmental pollution and achieve energy security.

according to the roadmap 2.0, by 2035, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for half of the sales. in terms of energy-saving vehicles, by 2025, the average fuel consumption of new traditional energy passenger cars will reach 5.6l/100km (wltc), and the average fuel consumption of new hybrid passenger cars will reach 5.2l/100km, with hybrid new cars accounting for 50% of traditional energy passenger cars. by 2035, the average fuel consumption of new traditional energy passenger cars will drop to 4l/100km (wltc), and all new traditional energy passenger cars will be hybrid models.

an insider of an automobile enterprise told the reporter that traditional energy vehicles will continue to be an important part of the automobile industry at present and in the future. in the current development environment of the automobile industry, the upgrading of energy-saving automobile technology should also be taken seriously by the industry as the basis for the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles.

fu yuwu said at the forum that after 2000, the development of china's automobile industry entered the fast lane. in the 24 years from 2000 to now, the automobile industry has mainly developed around two keywords, one is industrial upgrading and the other is industrial transformation. in terms of industrial upgrading, relevant laws and regulations and industrial technologies are continuously upgraded.

"our technology is constantly upgrading. for example, we have proposed that the combustion efficiency of the engine should be continuously improved. to this day, this upgrading work is still ongoing. we strive to achieve a thermal efficiency of 60% for diesel engines and 50% for gasoline engines. although the chinese automobile industry has always emphasized the transformation to electrification, we have not stopped pursuing the improvement of the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines. at the same time, in terms of gearboxes, we are still pursuing better comfort and smoothness, and are constantly upgrading our technology." fu yuwu told reporters.

energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles should develop in a coordinated manner

"there are two routes to develop new energy vehicles. one is electrification, and the other is power diversification, including extended-range hybrid, methanol, ethanol, dimethyl ether and other technical routes." fu yuwu believes that this route choice is more in line with my country's energy security and industrial security requirements.

my country's achievements in new energy vehicles have attracted worldwide attention. in terms of technological advantages, china's new energy vehicle battery, motor, and electronic control - the "three electric" technology is already leading the world.

however, the reporter learned in the interview that compared with new energy vehicles, the research cost of energy-saving technology for traditional energy vehicles is higher, and its contribution to the average fuel consumption of enterprises is relatively small, resulting in insufficient research and development initiative of domestic institutions and enterprises in energy-saving technology for traditional energy vehicles, and slow technology research and development and promotion and application.

many industry insiders, including fu yuwu, believe that my country should promote the coordinated development of energy conservation and new energy vehicles, and help traditional energy vehicles achieve the transformation from old to new kinetic energy.

the reporter noted that in december 2023, the china society of automotive engineers and the china automotive strategy institute released the 2023 annual assessment report on the energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap, which pointed out that the energy-saving level should be used as a criterion to guide the integrated development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, such as optimizing and adjusting the passenger car consumption tax system, using fuel consumption instead of engine displacement as the standard basis for setting the automobile consumption tax tiered tax rate, and increasing policy support for the promotion and application of hybrid vehicles. it is recommended to increase special subsidy policies for the application of advanced energy-saving technologies for commercial vehicles, support energy-saving technologies such as adjustable rear spoilers and adaptive vehicle height adjustment that have significant fuel-saving effects but cannot be well promoted due to cost constraints, and promote related products to accelerate the formation of scale effects.

many industry insiders pointed out that it is recommended to further demonstrate and evaluate the status and role of hybrid products and alternative fuel vehicles in the industry from the perspectives of meeting the country's dual carbon goals, achieving a strong automobile industry, and promoting a smooth market transition, clarify the hybridization path of traditional fuel vehicles and the application scenarios of alternative fuel vehicles, and provide support for companies in making layout decisions such as increasing the launch of hybrid vehicle products and continuously developing higher thermal efficiency engines.

(editor: zhang shuo, reviewer: tong haihua, proofreader: zhang guogang)

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