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bmw is panicking and is preparing to launch a new round of price cuts to deal with the "prisoner's dilemma." but this also means backstabbing consumers and restarting the "price war."

i remember that in early july, bmw withdrew from the price war because it could not compete and did not want to compete, and the terminal sales prices of many of its models were adjusted back by 30,000 to 50,000 yuan.

at the beginning, this action did boost sales. many people were worried that prices would rise in the future, so they rushed to swipe their cards to buy cars overnight. however, the 4s stores were not fair and took the opportunity to ask customers to pay extra to pick up the cars.

but the good times did not last long. within a week, bmw's sales began to plummet. in august, bmw sold 34,846 vehicles in china, a decrease of 28.81% from the previous month and a sharp drop of 42% from the previous year, basically halving.

many people say that it is not bad, at worst the volume is 34,000 units a month, but car companies are not looking at the present but the trend.

the drop of nearly 12% in july was still acceptable, but bmw would definitely not be able to withstand such a drop in august.

if no changes are made, and if sales are further cut in september, the empire that bmw has built in china over the years may collapse, and factories, employees and dealers will all suffer.

it is worth mentioning that bmw's main markets are china, the united states and germany. in 2023, bmw delivered 2.55 million vehicles worldwide, while sales in the three major markets were 824,000, 395,000 and 281,000 respectively.

bmw's sales in china are comparable to those in the entire european union and are about three times that of "germany". this shows how much the chinese like bmw and how much bmw values ​​the chinese market.

but all this seems to have taken a huge turn in 2024. chinese consumers, or the chinese middle class, are accelerating their abandonment of bmw.

why is this? i can summarize it into three points.

first of all, the speed of the rise of new domestic new energy vehicle forces is too fast, and they are competing in price, configuration, and product strength. luxury new energy brands such as ideal, wenjie, and weilai are all competing with bmw.

i have driven almost all of these cars. in the past two years, my friends who have changed their cars have basically reflected a fact: there is indeed a "generation gap" in the driving experience between bba and domestic new energy vehicles. now people mainly focus on "comfort and practicality" rather than pursuing sound and mechanical dynamics.

secondly, mid- to high-end users also pay more attention to "cost-effectiveness".

in the past, people may feel that driving a bmw is prestigious, but when bmw becomes a street car, the prestige effect disappears. people pay more attention to whether they can get better performance, space, functions, experience and services in the same price range.

for example, in august, mercedes-benz sold 49,000 vehicles and audi sold 47,900 vehicles. among new car manufacturers, ideal auto sold 48,000 vehicles. why are mercedes-benz and audi selling well despite being gasoline-powered cars?

in fact, bmw was cheated.

when bmw decided to withdraw from the price war, it privately discussed with mercedes-benz and audi, hoping to form an "offensive and defensive alliance" to fight against china's new domestic forces. the latter two also responded. but in fact, when bmw began to raise prices on a large scale, mercedes-benz and audi secretly did not "follow suit".

as a result, bmw's terminal sales price was raised, and it lost its cost-effectiveness, while mercedes-benz and audi, which did not increase their prices much, stood out in terms of cost-effectiveness, resulting in a large number of bmw's gasoline car customers being absorbed and transferred to other competitors.

therefore, there is no real alliance in the world. when it comes to interests, everyone serves their own master.

the last one is the product quality. bmw has not made any new products in recent years, but just made some improvements on the original ones.

on the one hand, germany's industrial efficiency has declined and it has no ability to change. you can check the relevant information. germany is now very bloated and no longer has the heyday of craftsmen. bmw, as a german industrial giant, has also been implicated. recently, it was revealed that the integrated brake system of about 1.5 million vehicles in the dingolfing plant had malfunctions.

on the other hand, the bmw group is too comfortable and has lived a life of path dependence. since the assembly line is fixed and sales were good last year, with chinese people rushing to buy its cars at a high premium, why should it invest in research and development to make changes?

either way, bmw should not make mistakes in such an inward-looking era in the automotive industry. it neither has the "strong product power and irreplaceability" to protect its market, nor does it frequently make strategic mistakes in pricing. the high-end image it had previously established has been completely destroyed.

then the situation that bmw will face in the future will be very dangerous, at least in the chinese market, it can only end up "unable to lie flat" and "unable to win". if this continues, the current monthly sales of 34,000 will be divided up by friendly competitors or new forces.

the only way to save itself may be to continuously lower prices in exchange for volume, and eventually become a street car worth more than 200,000 yuan.

mercedes-benz and audi may seem to be smiling now, but if they don’t make changes, they may follow suit. new energy forces are swallowing up the entire market at a rate of 3% per year. the automotive industry is destined to undergo earth-shaking changes.