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since this summer, scenes of rice shortages, with rice prices soaring, supply out of stock, and inventory reaching historic lows, have been described as the "reiwa rice riot" by local japanese media, which always like to give nicknames.

and now, although bags of rice are expected to appear on japan's supermarket shelves soon as farmers harvest their new crops in the fall, the "rice riot" may not really be over yet - there are signs that the increase in rice supplies does not seem to be doing much to curb price increases.

looking back at the shortage of rice in the japanese market this summer, the impact of climate change on rice supply cannot be ignored. the hot summer in the summer of 2023 caused high temperatures in many rice producing areas in japan, resulting in a decrease in the supply of rice on the market. japan's commercial rice stocks fell to a record low in june.

at the same time, increased spending by tourists to japan has also exacerbated rice shortages. especially after japanese authorities issued typhoon and earthquake warnings this summer, panic buying further exacerbated the shortage, forcing some retailers to limit sales.

data shows that last month in central tokyo, the average price of a 5-kilogram bag of rice sold in supermarkets was 2,871 yen (about 140 yuan), 23% higher than a year ago.

although supply constraints have been partially eased this month as new rice has hit the market, japanese farmers and major grain distributors have agreed to raise purchase contract prices, with the costs naturally being passed on to japanese consumers.according to some surveys by japanese media, the prices of 2024 new rice sold on the shelves of japanese supermarkets this month generally rose sharply, with the increase ranging from 30% to doubling. the main reason is that there was a supply and demand imbalance at the time of transition from 2023 rice to new rice.

the price increase of some high-quality rice is particularly exaggerated. for example, earlier this month, on the new rice shelf of a supermarket in tsukuba city, ibaraki prefecture, a bag of akita komachi rice (5 kg) produced in ibaraki prefecture was sold for about 3,500 yen (about 173.21 yuan), which is twice the price of last year. on rakuten mart's online mall, the price of a bag of akita komachi rice of the same weight has reached 4,000-4,500 yen.

in some supermarkets in the tokyo area, the price of saitama prefecture's aya-no-hi rice has also increased by about 100% compared to last year.

rice prices have become a "stubborn problem" of inflation

** "we are almost out of stock," said ryuji imai, owner of isego, a 300-year-old rice shop north of tokyo. it is the first time he has experienced such scarcity since he took over the shop in 2006.

imai, whose store is now almost out of rice, predicts that once supplies are replenished in october, rice prices will rise by 50 percent.

japan’s rice production has been declining since the late 1960s, partly due to an aging farming population and government policies that encourage farmers to grow other crops such as wheat. a changing climate has also raised concerns about yields and future food security.

while imports from the international market may provide some relief, japanese consumers' long-term purchasing habits usually avoid imported rice and are more keen on the taste of domestic rice. after india imposed export restrictions last year, overseas rice prices actually rose.

japan's rice harvest usually accelerates in september, with 40% of total production entering the market. as inflation raises farming costs, the japan agricultural cooperatives (ja) have raised farmers' contract prices by 20% to 40% from july, according to local media reports. ja, which controls more than half of japan's grain sales, saw its price for a 60-kilogram bag of brown rice sold to wholesalers climb to a record 16,133 yen in august.

in the same month, japan's rice inflation rate rose 28.3% year-on-year, the largest increase since 1975. polls show that inflation is one of the main issues that voters want the government to urgently address as the ruling liberal democratic party is about to hold a leadership election on september 27.

japan’s commercial rice stocks fell to 1.56 million tonnes in june, the lowest level since the agriculture ministry began compiling the data in 1999. wholesalers and retailers use monthly inventory data to determine the supply and demand balance for the year before the earliest grains harvested in southern japan hit the market.

what can be foreseen now is that japan's rice stocks may become even tighter next year.according to the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of japan, japan's rice harvest in 2024 is expected to be 6.69 million tons, while consumption from july to june 2025 is expected to reach 6.73 million tons, and the situation of supply exceeding demand will continue to exist.

last month, the governor of osaka prefecture called on the japanese government to release strategic stocks, warning that 80% of retailers would soon run out of food to sell. however, japan's agriculture minister remained cautious about using the reserves, and they have not been used since then.