news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

at the state council information office press conference held this morning, important news came out one after another, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio, reducing the interest rate of existing mortgage loans, creating special re-loans for stock repurchases and share purchases, supporting huijin investment co., ltd. to increase its holdings in the capital market, and studying the creation of a stabilization fund. one bank, one bureau, and one commission launched a "combination punch" of financial market policies.

among the new real estate finance policies, such as lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second home loans to 15% and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for first and second home loans, lowering the interest rate on existing mortgages is the most anticipated by the market and has been the most hotly debated policy measure before.

the specific contents of this round of the central bank's reduction of the existing mortgage interest rate are as follows:guide commercial banks to reduce the interest rates on existing mortgage loans to near the interest rates on new mortgage loans, the average decline is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points.

the reduction in existing mortgage loans, which was highly anticipated by the market in the early stages, has finally been implemented. what impact will it have on the capital market?

why lower the interest rate on existing mortgage loans?

existing housing loans refer to the portion of personal housing loans that have been issued by banks but have not yet been repaid by residents. tianfeng securities said thatafter lowering the interest rate on existing mortgage loans, homebuyers can reduce their interest expensesin theory, lowering the interest rates on existing mortgage loans canslow down residents' early loan repayments,anda certain boost to consumption。

adjusting the market background of existing mortgage loans

the agency said that the basis for this round of reduction in existing mortgage loans is:firstthere is an interest rate spread between existing mortgage loans and newly issued loans. the previous existing mortgage rate announced by the central bank at the end of 2023 was 4.27%, while the interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans in august 2024 has dropped to 3.35%, making residents tend to repay their loans in advance.second, housing prices are still facing downward pressure. economic data in august showed that the decline in real estate sales and investment narrowed marginally, but the residential price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities continued to expand its year-on-year and month-on-month declines.

it will reduce residents’ burden by 150 billion every year!

the financial statistics report for the first half of 2024 released at the end of august showed that at the end of the second quarter of 2024,the balance of personal housing loans was 37.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%.

according to tianfeng securities' calculations, 60.8% (23 trillion yuan) of the nearly 38 trillion yuan of existing mortgage loans belong to first-time homebuyers (whose interest rates were higher than the policy interest rate floor at the time of purchase) and first-time homebuyers identified under the new standards; about 26.5% (10 trillion yuan) were formed during the low interest rate period and did not enjoy the policy benefits of the 2023 existing mortgage interest rate cut; and 12.7% (4.8 trillion yuan) belonged to multiple homebuyers who did not enjoy policy benefits. weighting these three types of loans,the current average interest rate for existing mortgage loans is about 4.21%huachuang securities, cicc, zhongyuan securities and other institutions calculated the average interest rate of existing mortgage loansalso between 3.9-4.2%。

according to the calculation results of zhang dawei, chief analyst of centaline property, and founder securities, the interest rate of existing mortgage loans will be reduced by 50 basis points. if calculated based on a commercial loan limit of 1 million yuan and a 30-year loan repayment method, the monthly payment will be reduced by approximately 280 yuan, and the interest expenditure can be reduced by a total of 100,000 yuan in 30 years.

overall, pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, said that this policy is expected to benefit 50 million households and 150 million people.the average annual reduction in household interest payments is about 150 billion yuan.。

what was the effectiveness of the last round of reduction in existing mortgage loans?

my country has previously experienced two rounds of reductions in existing mortgage rates, in 2008 and 2023. kaiyuan securities said that the backgrounds of the two rounds of reductions were different. the former was against the backdrop of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, so the policy focused on "expanding domestic demand and improving people's livelihood"; the latter occurred in 2023 when the real estate industry was in turmoil, and some residents had early loan repayments and loan replacements, so the policy focused on "guiding borrowers and lenders to adjust and optimize assets and liabilities in an orderly manner and standardize the housing credit market order."

the interest rate cut for existing loans in august 2023, which is closer in time, targets existing first-home mortgage loans. from the perspective of coverage, the 23 trillion yuan of existing first-home mortgage loans cover about 60% of existing mortgages. from the perspective of policy effects, the implementation effect of the policy to reduce the interest rate on existing mortgage loans in august 2023 is mainly reflected in two aspects:(1) effectively alleviated the phenomenon of early loan repayment; (2) continuously improved residents’ consumption capacity。

however, according to guohai securities,there is still a 1-4 quarter lag between the reduction of mortgage interest rates and the year-on-year recovery of per capita consumer expenditure。

and what affects the boosting effect on consumption after the reduction of existing mortgage loans?tianfeng securities believes that it first depends on whether there are other high-interest assets in the market when the interest rates of existing mortgage loans are lowered; at the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to whether the income expectations of indebted residents have improved.

what impact will the reduction in existing mortgage loans have on a-shares?

real estate sector: fundamentals are expected to accelerate bottoming out and recovery

dongguan securities said that the market has recently had certain expectations for lowering the interest rates on existing mortgages, but overall, lowering the interest rates on existing mortgages to the interest rate appendix for newly issued mortgages and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second mortgages to 15% are unprecedented policy strengths.

the continuous optimization of policies at the local level after the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee and the further active implementation will accelerate the bottoming out and recovery of the fundamentals of the real estate industry. the current industry sector is near the bottom of the past decade, which has fully reflected the pessimistic expectations. policies have driven the gradual recovery of fundamentals, and the subsequent upward trend of the sector is still worth looking forward to.

huatai securities reminds,each bank will have commercial interests to consider, so it is necessary to pay attention to the actual implementation of the bank's reduction in existing mortgage interest rates.overall, it is believed that the reduction in the interest rate of existing mortgage loans will reduce the number of people who repay their loans in advance, thereby reducing the selling pressure of second-hand houses, helping to stabilize price expectations and promote a virtuous cycle in the industry.

banking sector: banking industry net interest margin will remain basically stable

dongguan securities said that reducing the stock of mortgage loans will help banks reduce the phenomenon of early repayments caused by interest rate differences, maintain the stability of the loan portfolio, and reduce the costs caused by capital reconfiguration. combined with the 517 real estate "four arrows" heavy policy, it is expected to work together to strengthen the effect of stabilizing the property market, which will have a positive impact on the recovery of bank mortgage loans and the improvement of asset quality. reducing the interest rate of existing mortgage loans will compress the bank's net interest income, but combined with the central bank's measures to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, reduce the 7-day omo interest rate, and symmetrically reduce the deposit rate,policy changes have a neutral impact on bank earnings, and the net interest margin of the banking industry will remain basically stable。

construction and building materials sector: policy efforts boost market confidence

debon securities believes that lowering the interest rate on existing mortgage loans will have a positive effect on deleveraging on the resident side, and the continued efforts on the policy side may boost market confidence. from the perspective of game elasticity, b-side companies are expected to benefit first from the high elasticity brought about by the relaxation of real estate policies, with a focus on stocks with strong alpha attributes and low valuations.