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last week, the global capital market ushered in the most important "super central bank week" this year.

last thursday, the federal reserve cut interest rates, followed by kuwait, bahrain, the united arab emirates, qatar, south africa and other countries and regions such as hong kong, china. in the long run, since the beginning of this year, more than a dozen countries or regions such as switzerland, sweden, canada, the united kingdom, and new zealand have also announced interest rate cuts, and global central banks have set off a vigorous interest rate cut wave.

as global liquidity turns to easing, the trend of major asset classes is also at a historical crossroads. in an interview with china securities journal reporters, several fund companies said that they recommend investors to adopt a "dumbbell-shaped" investment strategy in the current market, focusing on safe-haven assets such as gold, bonds, and dividends on the one hand, and investing in interest-sensitive technology growth directions such as ai and semiconductors on the other.

the interest rate cut wave triggered a huge change in global assets

2024 is the "year of interest rate cuts" for central banks around the world. according to statistics from securities china reporters, as of september 22, about 15 countries or regions around the world have announced interest rate cuts this year. among them, the federal reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points at one time, and the bank of canada made a rare three consecutive interest rate cuts. central banks around the world have started a wave of interest rate cuts.

it is worth noting that this round of interest rate cuts is triggering huge changes in global assets, especially since the federal reserve cut interest rates on september 19, the global capital market has been in action.

for example, gold continued to rise after the federal reserve cut interest rates. on september 20, the comex gold price once reached $2,651 per ounce, setting a new historical high. many gold etfs rose by more than 1% last friday.

huaan fund index and quantitative team believes that during the interest rate cut cycle, the market expects that the us real interest rate will decline, which is usually conducive to the performance of gold. especially in the context of the high us debt scale and deficit, the international financial system has shown a trend of "de-dollarization". central banks around the world have reduced the weight of us dollar asset allocation, increasing the demand for gold. there are medium- and long-term allocation opportunities for gold in the next 3 to 5 years.

however, u.s. stocks and u.s. bonds fluctuated. as for u.s. stocks, the three major stock indexes closed higher last week. the s&p 500 index rose 1.36%, the fifth increase in the past six weeks. the dow jones industrial average hit a record high after the interest rate cut, with a weekly increase of 1.62%. the nasdaq rose 1.49% last week; but at the same time, the 10-year u.s. treasury bond yield rose to 3.73% as of last friday.

huabao fund's international business department believes that although the u.s. stock market had adjusted on the day of the rate cut, the fed's 50 basis point rate cut was a preemptive preventive rate cut aimed at maintaining the current state of economic growth and the job market while maintaining subsequent policy flexibility. after the expected rate cut in overnight trading is realized, the u.s. stock market is expected to return to "soft landing" trading in the short term.

"the fact that long-term u.s. treasury bond yields stopped falling and rebounded after the rate cut shows that the market had already priced in some positive news, and the probability of a 'soft landing' of the u.s. economy is increasing after the rate cut. referring to the pricing of loose expectations in the fourth quarter of last year and the decline in u.s. treasury bond yields, the u.s. economic data rebounded rapidly in the first quarter of this year. after this rate cut, we may see a rebound in u.s. economic data in the short term, and interest rate-sensitive demand such as real estate is expected to be released." li weikan, manager of hang seng qianhai bond fund, explained.

as for chinese assets, a-shares stabilized after the fed's interest rate cut, with the shanghai composite index regaining 2,700 points. the hong kong stock market rebounded more significantly, with the hang seng index and hang seng tech index rising 3.39% and 4.73% respectively in two trading days.

guotai fund pointed out that the fed's interest rate cut is a precautionary cut, and it is expected to have a greater impact on hong kong stocks than a shares. for a shares, the fed's interest rate cut is not the core factor. although the constraints on domestic monetary policy have been slightly relaxed, the core of the trend of a shares stabilizing still lies in the domestic fundamentals and the increase in counter-cyclical policies.

china's stock and bond markets both see positive news

amid the global central bank's interest rate cuts, many fund companies believe that the space for domestic monetary policy will be further opened up. if interest rates at home and abroad can continue to decline, monetary easing may be beneficial to the funding and valuation of chinese assets.

in the bond market, li weikan pointed out that my country had quickly cut interest rates in july when us inflation fell short of expectations and the probability of a rate cut increased. now that the federal reserve has officially started the rate cut cycle, my country expects the probability of easing to increase. factors such as the recent tax period have made the money market tight. combined with the previous speeches of the central bank leaders, the probability of another rate cut in the fourth quarter is still relatively high. overall, we remain optimistic about the bond market.

in terms of the stock market, huaan fund index and quantitative team believes that the rmb exchange rate is relatively strong against the backdrop of the fed's interest rate cuts, which is expected to attract foreign capital to rebalance its allocation in the global market and increase investment in a-shares, thus forming a certain positive for the a-share market. at present, the valuation of the a-share market is already in a relatively low range, and positive factors are gradually accumulating. as the corporate profit cycle is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the high-quality development of the capital market continues to advance, investors can be moderately optimistic about the a-share market.

china europe fund holds a relatively cautious attitude. the company pointed out that the start of the fed's interest rate cut cycle will help open up my country's monetary policy space. the probability of the central bank's subsequent reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is relatively high, which will form a marginal positive for the domestic bond market; but for the equity market, although the fed's interest rate cuts and the u.s. stock market's return to a "soft landing" transaction are expected to accelerate the rebalancing between industries and drive the rise of sectors with risk premiums below the mean level, the current expectations for economic fundamentals have hardly changed. in the medium and long term, against the backdrop of a flat economy and the absence of aggregate stimulus policies, the domestic equity market is expected to still reflect a structural market.

the current market is suitable for a "dumbbell-shaped" investment strategy

standing at the crossroads of global liquidity turning towards easing, how should investors allocate their assets?

huaan fund index and quantitative team recommends that the current market is suitable for a "dumbbell-type" investment strategy. on the one hand, it focuses on dividend sectors with low valuations and higher dividend yields; on the other hand, it focuses on technology growth sectors that are more affected by the fed's interest rate cuts, especially those companies that benefit from the transmission effects of overseas industrial chains and the trend of domestic substitution.

for example, liu tingyu, the index fund manager of yongying fund, recommends investors to pay attention to defensive assets such as gold. he believes that the current gold stocks have been adjusted relatively fully, the pe valuation level has been at a relatively low level below 19% in the past five years, and the semi-annual report has achieved outstanding results. the net profit growth rate and roe rank high among all a-share sub-industries. the upward trend of gold prices has stimulated gold mining companies to increase capital expenditures, and subsequent production growth is expected. companies in the gold industry chain have entered the davis double-click cycle with rising volume and price.

the international business department of huabao fund believes that the "soft landing" of the us economy coupled with the iterative updates of ai will provide further support for the valuation of technology stocks. therefore, it continues to be optimistic that technology stocks led by the "magnificent 7" may continue to gain momentum this year and next year.

chen xianshun, chief equity strategy analyst at bosera fund, also suggested that investors can build a dumbbell strategy based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance:

at one end of the dumbbell strategy, it is recommended to focus on industries that are expected to provide better dividend returns, such as utilities (hydropower, thermal power), coal and related energy cycle products (petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals such as copper), infrastructure (ports, highways) and banks. in addition, most of the dividend assets in the hong kong stock market have higher dividend yields than a-shares, and their stock price fluctuations are relatively smaller, making them a better choice for investors seeking dividend returns.

the other side of the dumbbell strategy focuses on growth premium, that is, buying at the current stock price, hoping to get returns through high industry growth and company growth in the next 1 to 5 years. based on this, the semiconductor industry has become the preferred choice due to its huge domestic substitution space and market demand; ai computing-related communication companies have also shown strong growth potential; the consumer electronics industry fits people's constant pursuit of a better life and technological progress; in addition, high-end manufacturing industries such as industrial robots and unmanned driving technology have attracted much attention due to the disruptive changes they may bring to the industry.