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finally a decent counterattack!

in the morning trading today, a shares saw a good increase, with a50 rising 1% in a straight line, and individual stocks rose across the board, and the volume in the morning trading also increased. so, what are the positive stimuli? from the morning trading, multiple positive factors and positive expectations have been released continuously.

first, the funding situation was positive this morning, with overnight shibor at 1.9210%, down 1.10 basis points. 7-day shibor at 1.8590%, down 7.00 basis points. 3-month shibor at 1.8540%, up 0.20 basis points.

secondly, there is a new progress at the macroeconomic level: the national development and reform commission said that 300 billion yuan of national debt funds to support the "two new" work have been fully allocated. the actions to boost the real economy may have shown a signal of moving forward.

finally, after the rmb appreciated significantly, related favorable expectations were also re-stimulated. many brokerage research reports believe that the policy benefits in the fourth quarter will still exist.

a-shares counterattack

in the morning of september 23, although the a-share market was bumpy, it still had a decent rebound, with more than 3,200 stocks rising. what is more noteworthy is the structure. today's dividend index rose the most, but the csi 1000 and csi 500 also performed well. in addition, the whole market has seen a certain increase in volume, and the index has a good ability to carry the downward fluctuation.

what is more noteworthy is that the a50 index rose by more than 1% at one point, and the rmb even soared by more than 300 points last friday.

analysts believe that the continuous strengthening of favorable expectations is the main reason for the market counterattack.

first, in the morning trading today, the capital market welcomed positive news. the central bank conducted 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchase operations on monday, with a net injection of 95.9 billion yuan. overnight shibor was 1.9210%, down 1.10 basis points. 7-day shibor was 1.8590%, down 7.00 basis points. 3-month shibor was 1.8540%, up 0.20 basis points. the market liquidity trend was positive at the end of the quarter.

secondly, there have been new developments at the macro level. the national development and reform commission held a special press conference to introduce the overall progress and results of the large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in policy. zhao chenxin, deputy director of the national development and reform commission, said that the treasury bond funds have been fully allocated. specifically, in terms of equipment renewal, in accordance with the principle of "local review and national review", the relevant departments have optimized the support methods, simplified the approval process, and screened out more than 4,600 qualified equipment renewal projects. the 150 billion yuan of treasury bond funds in the field of equipment renewal have been divided into two batches and all arranged to the projects in accordance with relevant regulations and procedures. in terms of consumer goods trade-in, in conjunction with the ministry of finance, the scale of financial support has been reasonably determined based on factors such as the permanent population, regional gdp, and the number of cars and home appliances in various regions. the 150 billion yuan of treasury bond funds in the field of consumer goods trade-in have been fully allocated to local governments since early august.

finally, after the rmb appreciated significantly, related positive expectations were also stimulated again. mingming, chief economist of citic securities, pointed out in his comments that the fed has started a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the pressure of stabilizing the exchange rate has gradually eased the constraints on the loose monetary policy orientation. there may be more room for loose monetary policy in the future. it is expected that the necessity of strengthening countercyclical regulation will still be high, and it is still necessary to increase the number of loose monetary tools in the future. from the market point of view, related positive rumors are also fermenting.

has the market bottomed out?

so, has the market bottomed out? analysts believe that this may depend on the timing of policy implementation. if the focus is on domestic economic recovery, the market will bottom out soon.

citic securities believes that the us dollar has entered a rate cut cycle after the "risk management" rate cut. the first cut of 50bp was slightly higher than expected. while improving expectations for the rmb exchange rate, it also enhanced the flexibility of domestic monetary policy. it is expected that incremental policies will be increased, and the bottoming process of a-shares with improved pricing efficiency is expected to accelerate. the hong kong stocks, whose prices have fully reflected pessimistic expectations, are expected to continue their rebound and become a monthly repair market.

first, starting the interest rate cut cycle with a 50bp cut is the result of the fed's consideration of both expectation management and risk response. under the "discretionary decision" centered on the unemployment rate, the fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp twice this year.

secondly, the us dollar interest rate cut has significantly improved expectations for the rmb exchange rate and enhanced the flexibility of domestic monetary policy. domestic policy expectations have become more volatile, and the effects of existing policies and the increase in incremental policies still need to be observed.

finally, the dollar entering a rate cut cycle is beneficial to the valuation of global risk assets. the hong kong stock market, which has fully reflected pessimistic expectations, still has a significant price-performance ratio. its recent rebound is expected to continue as a monthly repair market. expectations for the rmb exchange rate have improved significantly, and incremental policies are expected to be increased. the bottoming process of a-shares with improved pricing efficiency is also expected to accelerate, but we still need to wait patiently for the market turning point signal. at present, the two main lines of dividends and going overseas are still the bottom positions.

chen guo of citic securities said that the domestic policy space has been further opened up. from historical experience, after the us interest rate cut cycle starts, if the domestic economy faces pressure from fundamentals, the domestic monetary policy will also follow suit. for example, in september 2019, the federal reserve carried out a preventive interest rate cut. after the dollar weakened and the depreciation pressure eased, the domestic interest rate cut followed suit. it is expected that china will first lower the omo interest rate, and then lower the mlf and lpr interest rates.

he also said that in addition to the start of the fed's interest rate cut cycle, the fourth quarter will also see the launch of the us presidential election and important domestic meetings. at present, the sentiment bottom and valuation bottom are approaching. if the policy bottom is further confirmed, it will form a resonance counterattack signal. in addition, from historical experience, under the catalysis of year-end fund rebalancing and the need to maintain returns, the market style in the fourth quarter has more obvious differentiation characteristics than the first three quarters.