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the biggest negative news is unlikely to be realized within this year, innovative drugs rebound strongly, and well-known hot money has already invested heavily

2024-09-23

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the biggest negative factor for innovative drugs is that there is basically no hope of them being launched within the year.

the shanghai composite index rebounded in the morning, while the shenzhen component index and the chinext index rose and fell. huawei's industrial chain was repeatedly active, and the concept of intelligent driving strengthened during the session. the photovoltaic equipment, diversified finance, wind power, civil aviation airport and other sectors led the decline.

kweichow moutaithe stock price once rose by more than 2% during the trading session. from the news perspective, last friday, the company announced that it would use its own funds to spend 3 billion to 6 billion yuan to repurchase the company's shares, and the repurchase price would not exceed 1,795.78 yuan per share.

in this regard, kweichow moutai stated that the repurchase was mainly to safeguard the interests of listed companies and investors and enhance investment confidence. under the premise of ensuring that the company's normal operations and long-term development are not affected, in accordance with relevant regulations, kweichow moutai intends to implement the share repurchase plan with its own funds.the repurchased shares will be used to cancel and reduce the company's registered capital.

this is one month after kweichow moutai announced its three-year cash dividend plan, and it once again announced major good news - implementing a cancellation-style repurchase, injecting a "booster shot" into the capital market.

huaxin securities believes that kweichow moutai has stable fundamentals and strong risk resistance. this repurchase is the first repurchase since its listing 23 years ago. on the basis of continuously increasing dividends, it will increase investor returns, which is expected to boost market confidence and achieve market value stability and improvement. in the short term, the current liquor sales have entered a transition period of preparing for the peak sales season. you can pay attention to the preparation strategies of various companies for the national day peak season sales, as well as the situation of destocking and supporting wholesale prices. overall, the focus of sector growth in 2024 will still be on the recovery of consumer confidence and economic recovery, and the long-term focus will be on the recovery of consumer power and business scenarios.

innovative drugs rebound strongly

innovative drugs rebounded strongly in early trading, with the concept index leading the gains in both markets.smart medicine"20cm" daily limit,yao shi technology, wuxi apptec, genechem biosciences, tigermedand other stocks rose.

on the news front, on september 19th local time, the u.s. senate released the final draft of the ndaa (national defense authorization act). this ndaa actually included 93 amendments, but did not include s.amdt.2166 (biosafety proposal).

analysts said that the previous house version of the ndaa did not include a biosafety proposal, and the senate version of the ndaa does not include it either.this means that the biosafety proposal will not work if it is included in the fy2025 ndaa.

as of mid-september, there are two legislative pathways for the biosafety bill: one is a separate legislative version: it requires consultation with the senate on bill amendments, voting, and both houses submitting it to the president, etc. the other is the ndaa (package legislation) version: the senate ndaa vote, etc.

currently, the fast-track passage of the ndaa packaged legislation has been completely blocked, leaving only the separate legislation path. according to industry professionals, the homeland security affairs committee's business meeting on september 25 has been scheduled, and the content of the biosafety proposal was not discussed.

huachuang securities believes that the biosafety proposal has basically been announced to have no follow-up, and the possibility of a separate legislative approach being implemented within the year is very low, and the possibility of other potential legislative approaches being implemented is also getting lower and lower.there is basically no hope of implementation within this year, and the cxo sector may see marginal improvement.

in addition, cicc pointed out that with the federal reserve announcing its first interest rate cut since march 2020, global liquidity has improved marginally, and the investment and financing sentiment in the pharmaceutical industry is expected to recover rapidly, giving it a valuation advantage.

innovative drugs continue to make progress overseas

from january to august this year, the national medical products administration approved 31 innovative drugs and 46 innovative medical devices, an increase of 19.23% and 12.16% respectively over the same period last year. innovative drugs such as small molecule targeted therapy, immunotherapy, and cell therapy have made substantial progress in exporting to overseas markets, and the global market's recognition of chinese innovative drugs is constantly increasing.

in recent years, many listed companies have successively led their products to go overseas. according to statistics from securities times databao, since november 2019,beigenethe company’s pillar product, the btk inhibitor zebutinib (trade name: beiyueze), successfully achieved a “zero breakthrough” in the overseas launch of innovative drugs.

in 2023, including toripalimab (junshi biosciences)、fruquintinib(chi-med)、abegrastim α injection(yifan pharmaceutical) and many other drugs have been successfully approved for marketing overseas.

this year,cstone pharmaceuticalsthe core product sugemalimab (pd-l1) was approved for new drug marketing in the european union for stage iv non-small cell lung cancer (nsclc). this is the first successful overseas launch of domestic pd-l1.fosun pharma, hengrui medicinemany innovative pharmaceutical companies have made new progress in exporting their products.

according to the first half of the year performance report, there were 8 companies whose overseas business revenue exceeded 2 billion yuan in the first half of the year. the top innovative pharmaceutical companies included:beigene-u, fosun pharma, probio, hepalink, jiuzhou pharmaceuticalwait.

beigene-uoverseas business revenue was the highest in the first half of the year, reaching 6.983 billion yuan, of which zebutinib's global sales totaled 8.018 billion yuan and its sales in the united states totaled 5.903 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.4%.

in terms of the proportion of overseas revenue, overseas business revenue of 14 companies accounts for more than 50% of total revenue.hepalink, jiuzhou pharmaceutical, asymchem, yaoshi technology, lianhe technologythe proportion of overseas revenue ranks first, exceeding 70%.

hepalinkits main businesses cover the heparin industry chain, biomacromolecule cdmo and investment, development and commercialization of innovative drugs, and its market is mainly overseas. in the first half of 2024, hepalink's overseas revenue reached 2.627 billion yuan, accounting for 92.59% of its revenue.

in the secondary market, hepalink has won the favor of the well-known individual investor hong zejun. in the first quarter of this year, hong zejun entered the top ten shareholders of hepalink for the first time, ranking seventh; in the second quarter, he significantly increased his holdings by 34.16 million shares, ranking fifth with a shareholding ratio of 2.91%.