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author: li sijia

editor: li sijia

editor: he zengrong

this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in china has hit new highs, and the penetration rate in august was close to 54%; in the first eight months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 6 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, and the market penetration rate reached 44.6%. in the retail structure of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicle sales accounted for 57%, which is an important force in the new energy vehicle market.

however, compared with the booming pure electric vehicle market in china, the pure electric vehicle market in europe is experiencing its "darkest moment".

recently, according to data released by foreign media, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the european union fell by 43.9% year-on-year in august, which is the fourth consecutive month that pure electric vehicles in europe have faced a decline. among them, as the two largest electric vehicle markets in the eu, the sales of electric vehicles in germany and france fell by 68.8% and 33.1% year-on-year respectively.

against the backdrop of sluggish sales of pure electric vehicles, new car sales in the eu fell 18.3% year-on-year in august, also falling to the lowest level in nearly three years. sales in major markets such as germany, france and italy all experienced double-digit declines, down 27.8%, 24.3% and 13.4% respectively.

considering the huge investments made by a number of european automakers in electrification transformation in recent years, such as volkswagen group, which has invested a total of 89 billion euros in electrification transformation in the past few years and plans to continue investing 180 billion euros from 2023 to 2027, the current sales performance of pure electric vehicles is obviously not proportional to the investment.

market downturn affects automakers

as early as july this year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in europe fell by more than 10%, accounting for only 12.1% of new car sales that month, lower than 13.5% in the same period last year. in the first seven months, the number of new car registrations in the eu increased by 3.9% to more than 6.5 million. it can be seen that although the number of new car registrations has increased, the decline of pure electric vehicles in europe is very serious.

in contrast, the share of hybrid vehicles in europe increased from 25.5% last year to 32%, with traditional hybrid and mild hybrid models growing rapidly, even surpassing fuel vehicles in new car registrations in july.

this sales trend continued in europe in august. data showed that in august, sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles in europe fell by 43.9% and 22.3% respectively, while sales of hybrid vehicles increased by 6.6% year-on-year, accounting for 31.3%.

in fact, as sales of pure electric vehicles have declined, hybrid vehicles have been increasing their market share in the eu in recent months, as many consumers see them as a compromise between fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles as a transitional option.

however, the growth of hybrid vehicles cannot make up for the "hole" left by the decline of pure electric vehicles, resulting in european car sales being far lower than before the covid-19 pandemic. many automakers, including volkswagen, believe that this trend will not change in the short term.

with overall car sales hampered, it is not easy for major european automakers.

data shows that as the top three automakers in europe, new car registrations of volkswagen, stellantis and renault fell by 14.8%, 29.5% and 13.9% respectively compared with the same period last year, while tesla's sales fell by 43.2%... this to a certain extent also reflects the current situation of pure electric vehicles in the european market.

specifically speaking of models, dacia sandero, volkswagen golf, and volkswagen tanyue firmly occupy the top of the sales list, while tesla's model y is the only pure electric model in the top ten, but it only ranks ninth. among them, the highest-ranking chinese brand model is the mg zs from saic mg, which sold 63,000 units in the first seven months, ranking 33rd.

the severe decline in pure electric vehicles has dealt a blow to automakers that have long bet on electrification and invested heavily in upgrading their products.

take volkswagen as an example. according to the financial report released by volkswagen, its net profit in the first half of 2024 fell by 14% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to a 15% drop in electric vehicle sales in europe and the united states. in addition, stellantis, bmw, renault and mercedes-benz also saw varying degrees of decline in earnings in the first half of the year.

the situation is even more difficult for electric vehicle parts manufacturers.

currently, valeo is looking for buyers for its two factories that are seriously short of orders, and reports say that the production of electric vehicle components is about twice lower than initially expected. finally, lg energy solution, europe's largest power battery supplier, is even considering the possibility of switching to the production of stationary batteries to enhance its competitiveness.

subsidies are declining and demand is weakening

one of the reasons why electric vehicle sales in the european union have fallen sharply is the eu's differences over environmental incentive policies.

take germany as an example.

germany began to subsidize electric vehicles in 2016, and set different subsidy amounts according to the sales price of the models. during this period, germany has paid about 10 billion euros in subsidies for more than 2 million electric vehicles, which has greatly promoted the development of germany's electric vehicle industry. in 2019, germany even included plug-in hybrid models in the subsidy scope and increased the subsidy amount.

however, in recent years, germany has begun to reduce subsidies for electric vehicles. in 2022, germany announced that starting from january 1, 2023, the subsidy for consumers of pure electric vehicles below 40,000 euros will be reduced from 6,000 euros to 4,500 euros, and further reduced to 3,000 euros in 2024. it was originally planned that this policy would continue until the end of 2024, and the incentives for electric vehicles would be gradually cancelled.

when the subsidies were cancelled, market demand returned to normal, resulting in a sharp year-on-year decline in electric vehicles in germany this year.

in may this year, german electric car sales fell by 30.6%. in july, the sales of electric cars in the german market were about 30,000, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8%. the market share of electric cars also dropped from 20% in 2023 to 12.9%.

the situation is similar in neighboring switzerland, where electric vehicle sales fell 19% in july; in sweden, sales fell 15%... relevant people believe that the main reason for european consumers' weakening interest in electric vehicles is the high price. as subsidies decline, product prices rise and consumer interest decreases.

in addition, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety, rising electricity prices, and falling incomes have dampened european consumers' enthusiasm for buying electric vehicles. at the same time, the eu is trying to exclude more cost-effective chinese electric vehicles by imposing high tariffs, which is also a big blow to the european electric vehicle market and indirectly leads to more cost-effective fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles becoming the first choice for european consumers.

in addition to the decline in subsidies, the overall decline in demand in europe is also one of the reasons for the plunge in pure electric vehicle sales. after all, overall, european car sales are far below the level before the covid-19 pandemic, and car deliveries are about 2 million units less than the peak. therefore, some automakers have warned that the trend of lower demand may not change in the foreseeable future.

as european consumers begin to dislike electric vehicles, automakers' willingness to transform to electrification is not as firm as in previous years.

mercedes-benz group announced at its annual earnings conference that it would no longer stick to its 2030 full electrification plan, while guaranteeing to continue improving fuel vehicle production; bmw and audi, both representatives of luxury car brands, also stated that they would not give up fuel vehicle production; stellantis group also updated its product planning for the european market, planning to launch 30 mild hybrid models in europe this year, and another 6 by 2026...

in short, whether it is the current sales stagnation or the car manufacturers' slowing down of the electrification transformation, it is not good news for the development of electric vehicles in europe. if european electric vehicles want to get out of the "dark moment", this road is not easy. at least they have to think about how to win back the hearts of european consumers.