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taking advantage of the "golden september and silver october" sales period, first-tier cities represented by guangzhou and beijing have begun to increase measures to boost the property market.

market insiders recently stated that the nansha district of guangzhou has relaxed purchase restrictions, and local property sales have been implemented according to the "no purchase restrictions" policy; beijing also recently mentioned again the optimization of real estate policies, "canceling the standards for ordinary residential and non-ordinary residential properties at the appropriate time."

from the perspective of enterprises, developers have generally accelerated their marketing pace recently. in guangzhou, poly, zhujiang industrial and other projects have successively launched new projects, offering marketing activities such as "fixed price" and "free parking space", and poly development ranked first in the equity sales list of guangzhou real estate companies in the first eight months of this year.

industry insiders said that the subsequent top-level design may continue to introduce relevant favorable measures, such as canceling the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential housing, adjusting mortgage interest rates, and supporting the acquisition of existing housing with special bonds. combined with the recent interest rate cut by the federal reserve, it indicates that the channel for subsequent reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts will be wider. however, it will take a certain period of time for the volume and price of the real estate market to stabilize.

guangzhou nansha district completely cancels purchase restrictions

the early policy combination has a significant effect

recently, news about the lifting of purchase restrictions in guangzhou's nansha area has been widely circulated. although the official has not officially released relevant documents, local market participants generally believe that the actual sales of real estate in the nansha area have been implemented in accordance with the new regulations. huang tao, general manager of the project department of guangdong centaline property, told this magazine: "at present, guangzhou nansha has indeed been operating according to the 'no purchase restrictions' policy, and this has been implemented for some time."

huang tao introduced that in the guangzhou market, nansha has always shown an independent market. this area is known as the "sub-center" and is less affected by the urban area. whether in terms of policy or industry, nansha is relatively special. he added, "guangzhou has frequently issued policies this year, and the market transaction data has rebounded significantly from may to june, but since entering july, the transaction data has gradually declined. at present, the real estate market in nansha is not prosperous enough."

li yujia, chief researcher of the housing policy research center of the guangdong provincial urban planning institute, said that in the past, nansha’s purchase restriction policy was relatively strict. at that time, there were concerns that real estate speculation was too strong and would affect regional functions and industrial development. now the local area is beginning to face the problem of market downturn. the task of stabilizing real estate in the nansha area is very heavy, and thus the purchase restriction policy has begun to be fully lifted.

in fact, from the perspective of policy support, guangzhou has been at the forefront of the market this year. before the nansha district lifted the purchase restriction, guangzhou had already launched a series of policies, such as canceling the "foreigner restriction order" and enjoying the "quasi-household registration" in huadu district to lower the threshold for buying a house. since the implementation of the "5.28" new real estate policy, guangzhou has further reduced the cost of buying a house. for non-local resident families who buy houses in yuexiu, haizhu, liwan, tianhe, nansha and other districts, the social security period has been adjusted from 2 years to 6 months; recently, major commercial banks in guangzhou have continued to follow up and adjust mortgage interest rates. for example, the first mortgage interest rates of china resources bank, hsbc, standard chartered bank and guangzhou bank have entered the "2" digit.

judging from the transaction data, the new property market policies in the early stage have played a significant role in boosting the guangzhou market. in the first month of the implementation of guangzhou's "may 28" new property market policy, the number of online signings for new and second-hand houses in the city hit a record high in the past year. according to official data from the guangzhou housing and urban-rural development bureau and the guangzhou real estate agency association, in june this year, the number of online signings for first-hand residential properties in guangzhou was 7,623, a month-on-month increase of 47.8% and a year-on-year increase of 10%; a total of 10,456 second-hand residential properties were signed online, a month-on-month increase of more than 30%.

but, as the policy effect weakens, the real estate market in guangzhou has declined recently. in august, 4,906 new homes were signed online in guangzhou, down 18% from the previous month; 8,872 second-hand homes were signed online, down 11.58% from the previous month. as for nansha district, in the first eight months of this year, 60,349 existing homes were registered for transaction, of which 2,598 were in nansha, accounting for only 4.3%, ranking second to last in the city's second-hand transactions.

li yujia said that the series of overlapping policies in guangzhou's real estate market this year have had a significant effect on boosting the market, especially since the release of the "5.28" new real estate policy, guangzhou's mortgage interest rate has dropped to the lowest among the four first-tier cities, which has had a great driving effect on the market.

"in recent months, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in guangzhou has been hovering at a high level of around 10,000 units, which is basically the same as the same period last year; new houses have also improved driven by the improvement demand of 'selling one and buying one' in the second-hand housing market." li yujia said, "however, entering the second half of the year, the effect of guangzhou's real estate policies has gradually weakened. after the intensive policy stimulus in the early stage, the local real estate market has recently fallen significantly in volume and price."

it is worth mentioning that entering the "golden september" period, guangzhou's second-hand housing market began to show signs of recovery. according to data from the guangzhou real estate agency association, from september 2 to 8, the city signed 2,031 second-hand houses online, a 7.23% increase from the previous week. this is the fourth consecutive week that the local second-hand house online signing volume has increased month-on-month since mid-august.

developers speed up marketing

poly development becomes the top seller in guangzhou

boosted by favorable policies and the "golden september and silver october" period of the real estate market, guangzhou real estate developers have recently accelerated their marketing pace. many local real estate projects are concentrated on launching new projects during the mid-autumn festival holiday. for example, projects such as zhujiang tianhe yipin and zhujiang jinyaotai under zhujiang industrial, and poly yajun and poly yanyutangyue under poly developments have all been launched recently.

at the same time, local developers have also made more intensive marketing arrangements, launching marketing activities such as 20% discounts, fixed prices, and free parking spaces. for example, kwg south china launched the "super burning home buying festival" during the mid-autumn festival, with 18 real estate projects in guangzhou linked together, and some real estate projects launched 20% discounts, 200,000 yuan home decoration and home appliance gift packages, etc.; longfor's yuhujing project also launched marketing activities such as "old bring new" transactions and up to 30 years of property management fees.

judging from the sales performance of local real estate companies, regional state-owned enterprises still occupy the top market share in guangzhou. according to data from the china index academy, from january to august this year, poly developments, yuexiu property and guangzhou metro occupied the top three positions in terms of equity sales among guangzhou real estate companies. during this period, the equity sales of each real estate company in guangzhou were 24.42 billion yuan, 18.8 billion yuan and 11.27 billion yuan respectively.

among them, poly development won the "sales champion" of equity sales amount in guangzhou in the first eight months with many hot-selling projects such as poly tianrui, poly tianhui, and poly hesong. the poly tianrui project alone contributed 4.1 billion yuan in sales to it.

real estate companies with sufficient forward value reserves are more likely to support future sales performance. judging from the real estate companies' reserve expansion situation, the main land acquisition forces in guangzhou are currently all central state-owned enterprises. in the first half of this year, guangzhou experienced a period of silence. during this period, only four of the 13 residential plots listed were sold - the qishan road plot in tianhe district, the world expo phase iii plot, the plot north of yayao road in huadu district, and the plot south of hedong road in liwan district, which were sold at the reserve price, were won by china resources consortium, yuexiu real estate, huadu urban investment and development, and poly development respectively. the four central state-owned enterprises acquired land in guangzhou for 3.645 billion yuan, 1.455 billion yuan, 677 million yuan, and 700 million yuan respectively in the first half of this year.

but, entering the second half of the year, the pace of land supply in the guangzhou market has clearly accelerated. in august this year, guangzhou announced a list of some planned commercial residential land projects in 2024 (the third batch), covering 50 plots of land, which are planned to be sold from august to november 2024. among them, plots with a plot ratio below 3.0 accounted for 74%. in contrast, the proportion of plots in the same plot ratio range in guangzhou in 2023 was only 31%.

among them, the tianhe south flour factory plot located on the north side of linjiang avenue in tianhe district was officially listed on august 28, with a starting price of 8.815 billion yuan, setting a new record for the starting price of residential land in guangzhou this year. this plot of land, located in the center of the three major cbds of zhujiang new town, financial city, and pazhou, is a pilot project after guangzhou optimized the new regulations on the planned gross floor area. according to the transfer plan, the "half-planned floor area" ratio of the semi-open space of the project can be increased from the original 15% to 20%, and its balcony area can be expanded to 30%, and the floor area ratio is calculated based on half of the horizontal projection area to increase the actual housing ratio.

it is worth mentioning that in addition to the acquisition and storage of existing housing stock, guangzhou has recently implemented the "land acquisition and storage" model. during this period, the land parcels of plot 2 on the north side of jinan university in panyu district and the guanglong land parcel in baiyun district, which yuexiu real estate won in 2021, were handed over to the local land development center for storage, with a total cost of about 12 billion yuan. the compensation method is that the land center provides the company with bills payable of the same value. the bills themselves can be used to pay for eligible plots of land sold in the guangzhou land market in the future, which means that after yuexiu real estate withdrew the land twice, it has obtained the opportunity to exchange warehouses in guangzhou for 12 billion yuan. yuexiu real estate also emphasized in the announcement that land storage is conducive to optimizing resource utilization, which is beneficial to future development in the long run, and the payment is fair and reasonable and in line with the overall interests of shareholders.

more regions may follow up to optimize property market policies

it takes a certain period of time for the market volume and price to stabilize

in time for the "golden september and silver october" sales period, measures to boost the property market in first-tier cities are still being introduced. in addition to the relaxation of purchase restrictions in guangzhou nansha, the beijing municipal committee of the communist party of china recently proposed in its implementation opinions on the "decision of the central committee of the communist party of china on further comprehensively deepening reforms and promoting chinese-style modernization" to optimize real estate policies and cancel the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties in a timely manner.

chen wenjing, director of policy research at china index academy, said that beijing’s proposal to “cancel the standards for ordinary residential and non-ordinary residential properties at the appropriate time” means that the cancellation of the ordinary housing standards has been included in the policy toolbox and will be implemented at the appropriate time. "at present, beijing has requirements for the plot ratio, building area and transaction price of ordinary houses. there are certain differences in the tax payment of ordinary houses and non-ordinary houses. canceling the standards for ordinary houses and non-ordinary houses is expected to reduce the transaction taxes and fees of non-ordinary houses, which will help reduce the cost of buying houses and help companies better match product types and focus on creating high-quality products." according to reports, "after beijing clearly canceled the standards for ordinary houses and non-ordinary houses at an appropriate time, it is expected that more regions will issue documents to implement relevant measures in the future to implement the spirit of the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee."

in huang tao's view, the current property market has entered a period of deep adjustment. market recovery will not be achieved overnight due to a single policy. it is expected that the market will still hover at the bottom this year, and a small number of high-quality properties will still have a market: "at present, the quality of the 'golden september and silver october' is still different from that of previous years. once residents' income and market confidence stabilize, relevant policies will be able to play a role."

li yujia believes that relevant favorable measures may continue to be introduced at the subsequent top-level design level "for example, the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee in july proposed 'canceling the standard for ordinary and non-ordinary residential housing', adjusting mortgage interest rates, and supporting the purchase of existing housing with special bonds. combined with the recent interest rate cut by the federal reserve, it indicates that the channel for subsequent reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts will be wider, and there is still room for adjustment in subsequent real estate policies."