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on september 4th local time, egyptian president sisi visited turkey for the first time in 12 years and met with turkish president erdogan. the two sides discussed the gaza conflict and how to further repair the long-frozen relations between the two countries.

from the ukrainian war to the gaza conflict, turkey's balanced diplomatic approach to maintaining relations with all parties has attracted a lot of attention. what are turkey's propositions and actions on the transformation of the world order and the regional order in the middle east? where does the motivation for turkey and china to deepen cooperation come from?

on relevant issues, observer.com had a dialogue with oitun orhan, coordinator of levant studies at the turkish middle east studies center.

observer.com: how does türkiye’s foreign policy community view the trend or proposition of “the rise of a multipolar world”?

oitun orhan:we have observed a shift in the world order and its impact on the sub-regional order in the middle east. we have also observed a multipolar treaty system in the middle east. the regional security architecture so far has been dominated by the united states and the west. but in the past 10 years, we have seen the rise of russia's voice in the regional order in the middle east, and it has become a very influential regional player.

since the end of the cold war, we have seen the rise of regional countries, mainly turkey and iran. other regional countries are also pursuing independent foreign policy lines. they used to be traditional allies of the west, especially the united states, but are now trying to deepen diplomatic relations with russia and china and find alternatives.

we have observed a trend towards multipolarity in the middle east, which has brought opportunities to regional countries. from the perspective of the rise and fall of the influence of hegemonic countries in the middle east, these regional countries have not been able to expand their influence in the past. but when the hegemonic countries began to withdraw and a power vacuum appeared, regional countries had opportunities. i think turkey saw opportunities in the power structure in the middle east and tried to actively fill those vacuums at the military, diplomatic, political and economic levels.

guancha.com: a turkish scholar once said that turkey's unique diplomatic stance enables it to maintain contact with various parties in the middle east, such as nato and russia, israel and palestine. what is the main goal behind turkey's foreign policy? what is its vision for the regional order in the middle east?

oitun orhan:i think turkey realizes that it cannot be a dominant force in the middle east or be able to independently build and maintain a regional order. turkey does not consider itself such a regional power. of course, turkey believes that without its contribution and participation, the middle east will not be able to achieve stability, security or successfully promote any initiative.

turkey wants to be an important regional player that can attract the attention of all parties. from this perspective, turkey's diplomatic stance is indeed very unique. not only the palestinian-israeli issue in the middle east, but turkey has not taken sides in major international conflicts (such as the ukrainian war) and issues involving "east-west competition". turkey tries to navigate these differences and different positions to enhance its influence. the multipolar world structure enables turkey to play such a regional role. but as i said, turkey is very clear about the upper limit of its own strength and does not need to exaggerate its influence. because misjudging its own strength may lead to unwelcome results.

of course, in order to fill the power vacuum (i.e. gain leverage and advantages in different areas), turkey is ready to take risks, both politically and militarily.

guanchazhe.com: european countries are discussing the possible consequences of the united states reducing its involvement in european affairs if trump is elected. has turkey ever imagined a similar scenario of the united states withdrawing from the middle east? what impact will this have on turkey's foreign policy and the security structure in the middle east?

oitun orhan:we have seen the precedent of trump's first term. in general, he will continue to gradually withdraw american forces from the middle east. he criticized nato and european countries, and turkey is also a member of nato. turkey is of course aware that nato is not highly united. in this sense, trump's position (on nato) is not contradictory to turkey.

but on the issue of the middle east, first of all, the us presence in syria and iraq is not in line with turkey's regional interests. turkey regards some us-backed groups in syria as terrorist organizations, and turkey does not believe that the us presence in iraq helps maintain regional stability. trump supports withdrawing troops from these regions and reducing interference in middle east affairs, not relying on military force, but playing a diplomatic and political role to maintain regional order and stability. in this sense, the us withdrawal will help turkey fight terrorism and play a greater regional role.

however, trump's policies on the palestinian-israeli issue may pose a risk. it is well known that trump firmly supports the current israeli government. during his last term, he provided the most support to israel among all us presidents.

from this perspective, if trump is elected, we may observe that the united states further supports israel and takes a more radical stance on gaza. this is certainly not in line with turkey's position on regional issues. turkey believes that israel's behavior should be curbed and only the united states can do this. therefore, trump's election will endanger peace and stability in the middle east on the palestinian-israeli issue.

guancha.com: some turkish scholars have suggested that the turkish government's goal is to increase its influence on hamas and get it out of iran's orbit of influence, and that doing so will help restore peace and stability in the middle east as soon as possible. does this represent türkiye's official position?

oitun orhan:this is indeed what turkey advocates. from the public to the current turkish government, they basically support hamas at the diplomatic and political level. but unlike iran, turkey has notisraeli-palestinian conflictturkey does not want to play a military role in the region, as doing so will only exacerbate regional instability and threaten regional security. turkey hopes to help hamas get rid of iran's influence, increase its influence on hamas and bargaining chips, and help the latter become a more responsible regional organization that is more inclined to play a diplomatic and political role. this is what turkey pursues.

if successful, turkey's policy will also be in the interests of the united states and israel, because israel would rather accept a hamas influenced by turkey than a hamas influenced by iran. turkey is a more responsible regional power that can both control hamas and hold bargaining chips in negotiations with israel.

as for your question, is this prospect possible in the short term? i think it is impossible. because the conflict is still going on, hamas does not need diplomatic and political support, they urgently need military support. from this perspective, as long as israel's aggression does not stop, hamas will continue to rely on iran's military assistance. only after the political initiative is promoted and a ceasefire is achieved, we can see turkey playing a bigger role. but if the conflict does not stop, nothing will happen that meets israel's expectations, because hamas will only be more and more deeply influenced by iran.

guancha.com: turkish foreign minister fidan visited china in june this year and expressed his desire to deepen bilateral relations with china. can you introduce turkey's motivation and expectations for deepening relations with china?

oitun orhan:there are both economic reasons and political and security reasons behind turkey's deepening relations with china. there are many areas where the two sides can cooperate. first of all, both turkey and china have common sense and recognize the various problems in the current international order. from this perspective, the two countries can cooperate to promote the development of the international order in a more fair and stable direction.

in africa and the middle east, in the ukrainian war and the israeli-palestinian conflict, china's role in supporting palestine and promoting reconciliation between iran and saudi arabia is also what turkey pursues, that is, to make more diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and play a mediating role. turkey believes that china has made positive contributions on the gaza issue, and turkey itself has also tried to mediate the various factions in palestine and promote the formation of a coalition government. their representatives have met several times in istanbul.

both china and turkey are committed to ending the conflict in gaza and can cooperate in alleviating the humanitarian crisis in the gaza strip and assisting in post-war reconstruction in gaza. in addition, turkey believes that china's role in the palestinian-israeli issue can balance the role played by the united states and is a factor in promoting stability. because the direction of us policy is not to end the conflict or promote a ceasefire. from this perspective, we need more direct intervention from international players to balance the us's dominant position in the palestinian-israeli issue.

china is also important to turkey economically, and turkey wants to join the belt and road initiative. i think some of the pathway cooperation initiative projects between turkey and iran can be integrated into the belt and road initiative.

there is room for cooperation on many issues. turkey's geographical location and geopolitical position are crucial. chinese products can enter the european market through turkey, and the two sides can also cooperate in the military industry. however, there are still certain risks in bilateral relations. in my opinion, in the past few years, both sides have tried to avoid political risks and pay more attention to areas of cooperation. feddan's visit to china played an important role. today we see deeper cooperation between china, russia and turkey (especially at the economic level).

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