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on september 18, the first phase of voting for the regional parliamentary election was held in the indian-controlled kashmir region. this is the first local election in the indian-controlled kashmir region in 10 years. according to xinhua news agency, five years ago, the indian government abolished article 370 of the constitution, which stipulated the special status of the indian-controlled kashmir region, which aroused strong opposition from local political forces and neighboring pakistan, which has a territorial dispute with india. now, many local political forces in the indian-controlled kashmir region have actively mobilized, hoping to turn this local election in the indian-controlled kashmir region, which is held for the first time in 10 years, into a "protest vote against the central government."

according to qatar's al jazeera and the associated press, in december last year, the indian supreme court ordered that the indian-controlled kashmir region elect its legislative representatives to the local parliament, thus launching the election agenda. the election will be held in three phases. in the first phase of voting, 219 candidates will compete for 24 seats. the second and third phases of voting will be held on september 25 and october 1, respectively, and the results will be announced on october 8.

first local elections in a decade

the indian government has deployed thousands of additional military and police forces in seven districts in the southern part of the indian-controlled kashmir region for the september 18 vote. these troops, wearing riot gear and carrying assault rifles, set up checkpoints and inspected constituencies in various areas. the 2.3 million local residents are eligible to participate in the first round of voting, and they lined up in villages and towns to vote.

the associated press said that for the indian government, staggered elections in three rounds in the indian-controlled kashmir region will help troops patrol everywhere to stop potential violence. since 1989, local armed forces opposing indian rule have always been active in the indian-controlled kashmir region.

according to reuters, some former separatists who once boycotted the election have turned to actively participate in this election. they believe that they have not been active enough in participating in local parliamentary politics in the past 30 years and have been ignored. the political views of these people include asking the indian central government to lift the ban on some local political parties, pardon charges, and restore the special status of the indian-controlled kashmir region.

since 1947, there have been two major local political parties in the indian-controlled kashmir region, including the kashmir national congress (jknc) and the kashmir people's democratic party (pdp). in 2019, when the indian government decided to abolish the special status of kashmir, the main leaders of the two political parties were placed under house arrest. in this local election, both parties have made the partial restoration of kashmir's local autonomy their core political position.

according to the associated press and reuters, for decades, many people and political parties in the indian-controlled kashmir region have viewed boycotting local elections as a "sign of protest against indian rule." however, in the current political context, they have changed their attitude. "boycott will not work in this election," abdul rashid, a resident of shangus village in the southern indian-controlled kashmir region, told the associated press. "we urgently need to end the impact of the changes brought by (india) there."

election results may change the local political spectrum

the german voice (dw) reported that the legislative power of the indian-controlled kashmir regional council is limited, and it only has nominal control over education and culture. the associated press analyzed that this local election will allow the indian government to transfer limited power to the kashmir region, but the indian congress still holds the main legislative power in the region. local politicians have therefore called on the central government to restore the state status of the region as soon as possible so that the complete legislative power can be returned to the local council.

indian political scientist noor ahmed baba said that the results of the local elections in the indian-controlled kashmir region will not change the direction of the kashmir dispute because the local legislature has almost no real power. however, it will change the spectrum of local politics.

"if local parties win, it will bring some pressure to the central government. perhaps from the perspective of so-called democratic politics, (such a result) will make (what the central government has done before) in kashmir seem illegitimate. however, if the bjp wins, it will allow the party to consolidate its achievements in 2019 and examine the changes in the political situation in the local legislature since 2019," noor analyzed.

other local residents said in interviews that since the bjp is already in power at the central level, the bjp's victory in the indian-controlled kashmir region will help the local economy.

the two most influential political parties at the national level, the bjp and the congress, have almost no influence in the indian-controlled kashmir region. the bjp once formed an alliance with the people's democratic party in kashmir, but in 2018, the bjp withdrew from the local government led by the people's democratic party, which had a major impact on the local political situation. the two parties did not cooperate in this election, and the bjp also accused the two major political parties in the indian-controlled kashmir region of "being supported by radical elements." the congress party remained silent on the issue of the special status of the indian-controlled kashmir region, but formed an alliance with the national congress party in kashmir.

in addition, indian home minister shah stressed earlier this month that the special status of the indian-controlled kashmir region "has become history" and "no one can restore it."

according to a ruling made by the indian supreme court in 2023, the indian government's decision to abolish the special status of the indian-controlled kashmir region in 2019 is valid, but the central government needs to hold local elections in the indian-controlled kashmir region before september this year and restore the "state status" of the indian-controlled kashmir region in the future. prime minister modi's government has promised to restore the "state status" of kashmir after the local elections, but has not given a specific timetable.