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as long as it's tesla, there will always be something new to come.

since the release of the second quarter financial report, tesla's stock price has been falling. on the day the report was released, it fell by nearly 8 percentage points, and its market value fell by more than 60 billion us dollars, directly destroying a leading new force.

at the time, it was said that tesla's production had hit a new low in the past five quarters, and its net profit fell 45% year-on-year. competitors were making rapid progress, but tesla was falling, and investors couldn't stand it.

as a result, tesla, which has no sales and no new products, has recently ushered in a round of stock price increases. on september 11, the increase was more than 4% in one day, and the market value increased by 31.6 billion us dollars. in the following days, it continued to rise steadily. deutsche bank, which had been bearish on tesla, also restored its "buy" rating for tesla, making tesla the preferred stock in the automotive industry.

how come the stock price is still rising when the cars are not selling well? what is the magic of tesla? let kungfu auto show you.

(1) new way to increase market value, not relying on selling cars

there is a very interesting phenomenon in this society, that is, those who do "real things" are not as good as those who do "empty things". for example, when xiaomi went public, it tried hard to package itself as an internet company, leaning towards the direction of tencent and meituan. as a result, it was hit hard, and its market value finally got a "minimum living allowance".

the reason is very simple. in the eyes of investors, xiaomi is an industrial company that makes money by selling products. it has many competitors, makes money too slowly, and has the risk of not being able to compete. it is not like meituan and didi, which monopolize a platform.

tesla's market value peaked in 2021, when its stock price reached $441 and its market value exceeded $12,000. the reason was a series of dazzling operations at the time, such as the debut of the 4680 battery, the exposure of the entry-level model 2, and the opening of reservations for the cybertruck electric pickup truck.

although tesla only sold 936,000 new cars that year, which was far more than toyota and volkswagen's annual sales of tens of millions, it did not prevent tesla from being hailed as the light of the new era, with its market value rising to more than toyota and volkswagen combined.

at that time, tesla also gave a blueprint, which is to achieve the goal of annual sales of 20 million electric vehicles by 2030 and achieve market dominance. the key is that there will be no low-end cars among these 20 million vehicles, and the starting price will be 200,000 yuan, and the gross profit margin will exceed 30%. if such a company really exists, how terrible it would be?

but the reality is that from 2021 to 2023, tesla's sales have only increased from 936,000 to 1.8 million, and there is a high probability that it will decline this year. byd's sales have increased from 730,000 to 3.02 million, and there is a high probability that it will exceed 4 million this year. in this comparison, who is the light of the future?

some of the things tesla promised, such as the 4680 battery, the model 2 small car, and the cybertruck electric pickup truck, are all illusions and have not supported sales at all. fsd, which is said to be available by the end of 2020, is still a test version.

cars are definitely not selling well, so tesla has found a new way to increase its market value, which is to continue to "paint the pie". forget about 4680 and cybertruck, although these have not been successful, tesla has something to change the world again.

(2) is it possible to combine robotaxi with a humanoid robot?

as we all know, tesla's product line has basically not been updated in recent years. its previous longest range is far behind its competitors. its fastest acceleration is easily crushed by its competitors. there are no new highlights in other aspects such as manufacturing technology, energy consumption, and intelligent control.

but tesla is not idle either. it is transforming itself, moving away from the concept of a simple car manufacturer and trying to become a technology platform for an industry, which gives it a unique valuation framework.

tesla recently proposed a new concept, “end-to-end”. simply put, it integrates the three modules of perception, planning and control of traditional intelligent driving through a large model.

the rules written by engineers are no longer needed. instead, the sensor signal is directly input at one end and the control signal is output at the other end. it no longer cares about traffic lights, lane lines, and traffic rules. instead, it uses large model technology to learn driving data and imitate human driving.

does it sound obscure and beautiful? that's right, this is the charm of tesla. it is indeed very grand in terms of pattern. i often feel that musk is jia yueting who has accomplished things. he has a lot of ideas and can always find people to pay for them. it's a pity that jia was not born in the united states.

tesla's goal is also very clear. once the "end-to-end" technology is completely mastered, the intelligent driving system can drive like a human. it will be applied to two new areas: the humanoid robot optimus and driverless taxis (robotaxi). both sides are trillion-dollar markets.

imagine if driverless taxis really mature, how much labor costs for drivers will be reduced? if humanoid robots can really work completely according to the system, there may be no physical work.

tesla is also vigorously developing its energy storage business to form energy recycling. foreign financial companies have commented on tesla, saying that it is building an "apple-style" energy ecosystem.

how can such a company not be worth ten times the valuation of apple? therefore, tesla, with a market value of more than 700 billion us dollars, is actually greatly underestimated.

(3) worried about missing out? no need to worry

in recent years, there have always been many people in china who "think of danger in times of peace". when blockchain came out, a lot of people reflected; when metaverse became popular, a lot of people reflected; when chatgpt came out, these people cursed domestic technology companies.

every move made by tesla is pretty much the same, and many people are worried that we will fail to keep up and miss the opportunity again.

in fact, whether it is the metaverse or ai, although the concept is beautiful, it still needs to be realized in the product. this thing must be really useful to be promoted, otherwise it is just a temporary gimmick.

just like the popular car, which was hyped up a while ago, but after experiencing the kung fu car, it is obvious that this thing is overhyped.

first of all, the boarding point is fixed. it cannot be fixed. there is no driver in the unmanned vehicle, and the starting point information comes from the user. if the location is really inaccurate, how to contact? who to contact?

therefore, for users, this thing is not like a taxi or online car-hailing, but like a bus that can only seat three people, and you must get on the bus at a fixed stop. there are also restrictions on where to go, and it will not go if it is too far or the road conditions are complicated. the parking spots are also relatively fixed. as a result, the convenience of taking a taxi is greatly reduced.

many people say it is cheap, but the question is, can this cheapness last? isn’t it still a capital game behind it? in my opinion, there is no such thing as a hot spot. if it is really useful and has a promising future, these companies would have jumped on it long ago.

tesla does what tesla does, so domestic companies should not easily imitate it. imagine if there is a company that has been focusing on 4680 batteries, pure visual intelligent driving, and humanoid robot optimus in the past few years, and it does not have the appeal of tesla, it is likely that it will not be able to survive.

(4) kung fu clap

there is nothing to envy about tesla's rising stock price. the ups and downs over the years have long proved that tesla has never been about operations but concepts. this is its killer feature that has enabled it to become the "most valuable" car company.

the key is that this thing cannot be learned. the closest person is jia yueting. jia's company is still alive in the united states. although it has only delivered 13 cars in 10 years and has recently laid off employees, it does not affect jia yueting's annual salary increase by more than 50%. this world does not only have one color, but also black, white and gray. there are indeed people who can walk in between and make a fortune, but it's not you and me.

domestic companies should stop imitating tesla. instead, they should focus on making better cars, more cost-effective cars, and meet the needs of more users. this is your destiny.