news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

tesla cannot afford to lose the chinese market, but the chinese market does not matter who wins or loses.

"however, i continue to choose tesla."

not long ago, under an article in the commune that analyzed the basic structure of the current domestic pure electric passenger car market and pointed out the situation faced by tesla, as usual, there were "chanting"-style replies.

figure | to be honest, it’s 2024, who hasn’t accumulated some strength in energy consumption and battery management? except for a few models that are ridiculed as “electric luxgen”, the power consumption per 100 kilometers is basically around 15~20kw, and there is no qualitative difference

although this article is well-reasoned and every word hits the nail on the head, it actually points out the problems that tesla is currently facing in the domestic market.

the author, mr. cui, even gave a special warning at the end of the article - there will definitely be readers who will question the tone of the article and shout out the famous slogan, "i have never won online, and i have never lost sales."

there was no way to refute it, but i was unwilling to accept it, and my words were "sealed" by the prediction... so what should i do? is it so difficult to admit the obvious facts except "reciting scriptures"?

as of now, tesla's only remaining "advantage"

we have to talk about the truth, but some facts cannot be erased or ignored, otherwise, wouldn’t we be no different from the internet diode?

so here, let’s take a brief look back at what you thought when tesla’s first car model for the mid-to-low-end market, model 3, was first launched?

here, i can openly admit that eight years later, recalling the press conference on march 31, 2016, i still vaguely remember the surprise of that night - it turns out that an electric car priced at only $35,000 can be built like this? !

the performance of the first batch of model 3 can be found everywhere on the internet, so i won’t repeat it here. here, i would like to ask, how good were the competitors of this car in the domestic market at that time?

for example, a brand's first-generation b-class pure electric sedan was updated in february 2017. compared with the old 2014 model, it has a new car system, and the battery capacity has been increased to 62 degrees, the nedc standard range has reached 352km, the high-end motor power range ranges from 135kw, the zero-to-hundred acceleration is 10.5 seconds, and the speed limit is 150km.

then in july 2017, another brand updated its a-class new energy sedan. this car is equipped with a 47.5-degree battery, a nedc standard range of 300km, a motor power of 160kw, an acceleration from 0 to 100 km/h in 7.9 seconds, and a speed limit of 150km.

obviously, compared with the model 3, which started mass delivery at the end of july 2017, the above two models cannot be said to be completely outdated... the data is really a bit exaggerated. the new power models that can be compared with them in terms of new energy will not be launched until 4 months after the first batch of model 3 is delivered.

more importantly, the price. the a-class and b-class electric sedans mentioned above have a guide price of rmb 235,900 and rmb 369,800 respectively. a comparable medium-sized and large electric suv is priced at rmb 448,000. in comparison, the pre-sale price of the model 3 was only usd 35,000, equivalent to rmb 226,000 at the exchange rate at that time.

but although the above are facts, they are history. another fact is also obvious. whether it is the model 3, which has been released for eight and a half years, or the model y, which has the same chassis and will be launched and delivered in the spring of 2021, as of september 2024, the configuration and performance of the latest model of the season and the old model of previous years are basically the same.

model y has some carbon fiber trim on the door interior panels, and the rest is mainly due to the difference in battery capacity caused by the change of suppliers and cell specifications. as for model 3, although it had a mid-term facelift with new headlights, it also simplified the physical gear lever, and from then on, gear shifting can only be done by dragging on the central control screen.

on the other hand, all the competitors that tesla had stepped on have made great strides in the past seven years. and those brands that were born later not only started from a higher starting point, but also never slacked off in iterative upgrades.

many people parrot it frivolously, summing it up as a "volume". however, its effect is something we can all see - anyone can walk into a store, find a self-made pure electric car priced at 200,000 yuan, look at the interior and configuration, and then test drive it to experience it.

if we have to say what advantages tesla still has from the perspective of 2024, then this brand may not be able to guarantee fairness to new and old car owners in terms of pricing, but at least there will be no problem with model replacement.

after all, compared with domestic brands that can have two model changes plus one mid-term change a year, the first batch of model y delivered by the lingang super factory in 2022, compared with the current models, is open from the inside out, and even professionals may find it difficult to find the difference.

fading halo of technology

in fact, the technological halo that once surrounded tesla was also mixed with a lot of water. for example, when tesla's domestically produced models were first launched, many self-media outlets praised its motor technology, praising its self-developed third-generation motor for its excellent performance and energy consumption.

unfortunately, however, this praise, at least in terms of energy consumption, must end on march 3 last year. because on that day, tesla officially announced that it would abandon permanent magnet motors and turn to induction motor technology in the future.

the biggest difference between the so-called induction motor and the permanent magnet motor is that the motor rotor no longer contains iron-needle-boron permanent magnets, but is replaced by a set of coils. since it has one more set of coils than the permanent magnet motor, it is naturally inferior in energy consumption.

the reason that led tesla to make this decision is actually very simple - high-performance permanent magnet motors cannot do without iron-negium-boron permanent magnet components, but this requires the consumption of rare earth elements.

against the backdrop of the increasingly severe decoupling of u.s. technology and industrial chains from china, as an american manufacturing company, continuing to maintain important industrial centers such as the lingang super factory in china is politically incorrect in the american public opinion environment. but what will happen if a major incident occurs and the supply of rare earths is completely cut off?

from this, it can be seen that when musk made this decision, it was obviously based on the reason of making preparations for both scenarios.

however, such preparations come at a price. on the day when tesla announced the abandonment of permanent magnet motors, its stock price faced a round of decline. after all, this operation, although it can be described in a high-sounding manner as a major adjustment to the security of its own supply chain based on the current national strategy of the united states as an american company, has been made.

however, the lingang gigafactory, which is tesla's current profit guarantee, is still located in shanghai, china. and whether it is the lingang gigafactory or the latest berlin gigafactory, they still rely on the supply of new energy vehicles from mainland china, right?

therefore, this so-called risk control behavior reveals a sense of twist from head to toe. moreover, this operation has indeed led to a reduction in product performance.

of course, even today, tesla still has a trump card to play. technically speaking, its last and most technologically advanced card is the full self-driving intelligent driving system that has been launched in china.

musk does have reason to be optimistic about it. after all, the core of intelligent driving is scene judgment based on graphic recognition, which requires a huge number of scenes for machine training. therefore, tesla's cumulative global sales of 6 million vehicles so far must have made it the world's leading company in data accumulation.

however, this advantage also has rivals in the chinese market. the ads intelligent driving system provided by huawei will be installed on more than 500,000 vehicles by the end of this year. although it is an order of magnitude lower than fs-d, it has many unique technologies in multi-sensor fusion.

when it comes to the issue of data accumulation, we have to mention tesla's other domestic competitor - ideal, which was criticized in the past few years for its "dispensable" intelligent driving system. the reason why it has suddenly become "popular" in the field of intelligent driving this year is inseparable from its accumulated sales volume of millions.

however, there is another key issue, which is the main reason why tesla was able to gain an advantage in the first place - price.

the cost of adding the fs-d system to a new tesla car in the domestic market is an additional 64,000 yuan. in comparison, the cost of adding the intelligent driving package to a domestic brand is almost negligible.

“enchantment” and “de-enchantment”

"if (tesla) didn't open up its patents, there wouldn't be so many 'electric cars' coming out in china!"

in mid-april this year, a professional from an automobile-related department of a top domestic university who serves as a doctoral supervisor made this "outrageous statement" during a lecture when introducing the basic ideas of china's official guidance on the new energy vehicle industry.

this is a classic old rumor that has been circulating in the "simplified chinese" internet community for many years. its source is obviously a marketing show launched by elon musk himself on june 12, 2014.

according to the article "all our patents are belong to you" on tesla's official website, in line with the purpose of "environmental protection and sustainable development", a total of 271 patents were disclosed at that time, including 8 appearance patents and 263 invention patents.

picture | don’t laugh. to this day, many people still believe this nonsense. even professionals are fooled by false information when they look for information online when writing speeches.

this excellent marketing operation was further utilized by tesla as it was the first to obtain the qualification to build a wholly-owned factory in china a few years later. it was compiled into a viral marketing rhetoric based on which the domestic pure electric vehicle industry is based.

it does not require any professional knowledge. anyone with a little common sense should understand after a little thought how ridiculous it is in reality to be able to open a car manufacturing company in a month or a few months by taking a hundred patents from others.

after all, the startup capital of a car manufacturer is worth billions, and the development cycle of a new car takes at least three years even if calculated today. this is not a photography studio that can be opened with a slr and a macbook.

in fact, of the 263 invention patents disclosed in 2014, 183 were submitted to the patent office only in the united states, and only 141 were approved at that time.

in china, only 8 applications were submitted, and only 3 were granted patent approval numbers. with such a huge contrast, why did rumors spread all over the domestic internet a few years later and continue to spread to this day?

because this is actually an integral part of tesla's overall brand marketing.

there was a popular myth about tesla on the internet that claimed that the car company never spent money on advertising. but even if part of what it described is true, it is just that tesla does not advertise in traditional media. and this sentence itself is part of tesla's online word-of-mouth marketing.

tesla may rarely place print ads, but it has always insisted on conducting online marketing on various new media platforms. some of these include establishing a persona among potential customers, some are used to shape the brand image in all dimensions, and there are also various highly targeted promotions.

i believe many of my friends have seen short videos boasting about tesla's lingang gigafactory on douyin or kuaishou. the content is nothing more than praising how good the treatment of employees is and how rich the working meals are. to be frank, a considerable part of the content is obviously reverse-screened and specially prepared for the general group in the workshop.

for example, in this video, the blogger didn't know where he got it from, showing a small room with a few tables and chairs, and a row of closed buffet cabinets. with text and explanation, he boasted about the dining environment and quality of tesla employees.

however, this is obviously not an employee cafeteria. it can be said that the picture and the narration are out of sync, which is completely embarrassing. what's worse, they once used promotional pictures of other companies, but they accidentally stole pictures of huawei's cafeteria.

picture | the author forwarded this short video to a worker in the battery workshop in front of tesla's lingang factory, and the worker immediately refuted him, "why didn't i see this when i was there?"

if someone thinks that this kind of content is extremely stupid or even ridiculous, and questions the effect of such deception, then i would just say that the target group does not include you.

there is no doubt that this is actually just a recruitment advertisement using a short video platform, and the target audience is the workers in the workshop...

i have said so much here, but there is one point that needs to be emphasized at the end - please do not misunderstand me when i blame anyone or even when i mean to blame someone.

in this era, the world has developed into a highly complex system, in which knowledge has become systematic and all-encompassing. even experts in a certain field cannot know everything. the reason why they are defined as experts is actually just because of the area they are good at.

therefore, once you step out of your own small world, you may be fooled by false information, just like the expert mentioned above. moreover, these old experts, who were generally born in the 1960s and 1970s, are easily confused by the massive amount of complex data in this era of information overload.

from the perspective of the enterprise, whether it is tesla or other brands, establishing brand image or recruiting employees is just a necessity for business operations. as long as it does not violate the law or public order and good customs, there is nothing to blame.

so the key is - why is it "you" who is bewitched?

to be fair, looking at tesla from today's perspective, although this brand and all its vehicle models have lost the huge technological advantages they once had, they still have product value.

at least in a city like shanghai, if you have the conditions to install a private charging station but are unwilling to pay 90,000 yuan for the "most expensive iron sheet in the world", and are also confused about what specific pure electric model to buy, then choosing model 3 or model y can be said to be a "not a bad choice."

today, as tesla has passed the certification of the ministry of industry and information technology in terms of compliance in uploading information, all domestic bans and restrictions on tesla cars have been lifted. at the same time, the opening of domestic services for the fsd system, which has always been regarded as a killer by tesla supporters, is also being promoted.

however, time has already, relentlessly pointed to september 2024...

for tesla, in addition to promoting the launch of the fsd system in china, another important project is undoubtedly the mid-term facelift of model y. at the end of last month, its camouflaged road test vehicles have been witnessed and photographed in many places in the united states since may this year.

however, i am not optimistic about this mid-term facelift, because according to various known signs, it will follow the style of the model 3 mid-term facelift, adjusting things like the headlights and a few interior details.

even the cancellation of the physical gear lever and the use of the electronic gear position on the central control screen, which has been complained by countless people before, will be arranged for you this time. if you must say what the highlights of the facelift may be, it is probably only a through-type taillight that is still uncertain.

there are even reports that the mid-term model y will have a seven-seat version. but at the same time, there is a lot of evidence that this modification will not involve adjustments to the wheelbase and body space dimensions. in other words, if there is a seven-seat version of the model y, it will have to be crammed into the existing 2.89-meter wheelbase...

figure | model y mid-term facelift road test car photographed in california, usa

for tesla, the situation from the end of this year to next year can be described as not good.

on the one hand, the response to the model 3 mid-range model after its launch can be said to be very poor. on the one hand, this is probably related to the limited strength of the model change and the over-simplification of configuration and system. on the other hand, with the development of 200,000 first-tier domestic pure electric and even hybrid sedans, consumers already have products to choose from.

therefore, whether model y can maintain its market share under this situation has become the key for tesla to stabilize the chinese market. however, after learning the specific information of this model, i believe it is difficult for anyone not to doubt its future.

tesla cannot afford to lose the chinese market, but for the chinese market, it doesn't matter who comes.