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the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in september is expected to exceed that of august, but the growth rate of transaction volume may be limited.

in august, the new home market continued to bottom out, with the absolute volume of transactions reaching the second lowest level of the year, and second-hand home transactions weakened. entering the traditional peak sales season, can the market usher in a turnaround? will the new and second-hand home transactions in the first half of september continue to weaken or reverse and rise? can the "golden september" be expected?

new homes: transaction volume still fell by 6% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year; beijing, wuhan and hangzhou led the decline, while guangzhou, ningbo and foshan maintained growth

the scale of new home sales fell slightly from august, but was significantly lower than the same period last year. in the first 12 days of september, 30 major cities had a total transaction volume of 2.95 million square meters, down 6% from the first 12 days of august and 18% from september 1 to 12 last year. the decline was most obvious in first-tier cities, with sales in beijing and shenzhen both showing weakness, nearly halving from the same period in august.

the overall transaction volume in second-tier cities remained stable, with some improvement in ningbo and changsha, but continued to decline in hangzhou and wuhan. due to the low base effect, the transaction volume in third- and fourth-tier cities increased by 19% month-on-month and only fell by 1% year-on-year. the transaction performance in foshan and huizhou was relatively impressive, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth.

in september, weekly new home sales fell 20% from the weekly average for the year.in the 35th week (august 26-september 1), the new home transaction area in 30 key cities totaled 2.24 million square meters, a 4% increase from the previous week due to the month-end rush. however, in the 36th week (september 2-september 8), the transaction volume fell by 24% from the previous week to 1.71 million square meters. the transaction area in the 37th week (september 9-september 15) is expected to be 1.74 million square meters, a slight increase of 2% from the previous week. the average weekly transaction area in the 36th and 37th weeks was about 22% lower than the weekly average of the year.

the sales rate of newly launched projects fluctuated at a low level of around 30%. the average sales rate in the 36th week was about 28%, a further decrease of 9 percentage points from the previous week. in terms of cities, most of the projects launched in beijing, suzhou and hangzhou are located in the suburbs, and the overall sales rate of newly launched projects has dropped significantly. only 9% of the single projects in beijing were sold, and only 14% in suzhou. hangzhou also fell from a relatively high level to 34%.

second-hand transaction volume fell by 4% on a weekly basis and 11% on a weekly basis. beijing, shenzhen, and nanjing remained strong, while dongguan and lianyungang weakened significantly.

second-hand housing transactions remained stable with a slight decline on a month-on-month basis.in the first 12 days of september, the total transaction volume of second-hand houses in 15 key monitored cities was 2.46 million square meters, down 4% from the first 12 days of august and up 31% year-on-year. transactions in beijing and shenzhen remained resilient, with a steady increase month-on-month. on the other hand, hangzhou and suzhou gradually showed signs of decline, with transactions falling month-on-month, while transactions in dongguan and dalian were even more obviously poor, with the largest month-on-month decline. year-on-year, the transaction scale of 80% of cities was higher than the same period last year, and shenzhen and other cities maintained a doubling.

the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the past two weeks has dropped by 11% compared with the weekly average of the year.in the 36th week (september 2-september 7), the second-hand housing transaction area in 15 key monitored cities was 1.368 million square meters, a decrease of 7% from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate narrowed to 12%. in the 37th week (september 8-september 15), the second-hand housing transaction area in 15 key monitored cities is expected to be 1.431 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 14%. the average weekly transaction in the 36th and 37th weeks decreased by about 11% compared with the weekly average of the year.

in summaryin the first half of september, the performance of first-hand and second-hand housing transactions in key cities continued to weaken month-on-month. the total transaction volume of new homes in 30 cities decreased by 6% compared with the same period in august, and the total transaction volume of second-hand homes decreased by about 4%. the transaction volume of new homes decreased by 18% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing market was relatively strong, increasing by 31% year-on-year.

predicting the future market, considering factors such as the concentrated filing of performance sprint in the second half of the month,the transaction volume of first-hand and second-hand houses in september is expected to exceed that in august.however, the background of weakening policy benefits and lack of confidence among homebuyers remains unchanged, coupled with insufficient supply and insufficient market enthusiasm for launching new properties, the growth in transaction volume may be very limited. compared with the same period last year, it is expected that new home transactions will continue to decline, with a drop of about 10%. the scale of second-hand housing is slightly higher than the same period last year, and the growth rate continues to narrow.