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will plug-in hybrids no longer enjoy new energy vehicle subsidies? extended-range car owners are happy

2024-09-15

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the extended-range vehicle has been saddled with a bad reputation since its inception.

the reason is simple. although both can be powered by oil or electricity, the extended-range electric vehicle always gives people a sense of being cunning compared to the plug-in hybrid. some people think it is a savior for oil vehicles, while others say it is a burden for electric vehicles.

some people would dig up the ancestral grave of range-extended technology, arguing that the history of range-extended technology, like the internal combustion engine, can be traced back hundreds of years, and because of its simple configuration, it is an "old" technology without very high technical content.

although some people classify extended-range vehicles as new energy vehicles, and like to emphasize the electric drive experience and ultra-low fuel consumption, the experience is not good, especially when driving at high speeds, and the fuel consumption of electric vehicles is even higher than that of ordinary fuel vehicles.

more people would think that using oil to generate electricity for extended-range electric vehicles is equivalent to "taking off pants to fart." in comparison, the impression given by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is more "open" than that of extended-range electric vehicles.

but now, the entire industry has begun to "vindicate" and "whitewash" extended-range electric vehicles.

at the recent extended range technology development forum, cui dongshu, secretary general of the china passenger car association, commented on the development prospects of extended range electric vehicles. he made it clear that extended range electric vehicles are essentially electric vehicles, not plug-in hybrid vehicles. this is because both extended range electric vehicles and pure electric vehicles are driven mainly by pure electricity.

this should be the first time that official practitioners have set the tone for extended-range technology, and they defined it as an electric vehicle rather than a phev.

why do we need to give extended-range electric vehicles a proper name?

since the beginning of this year, the sales growth rate of phev models, including plug-in hybrid and extended-range models, has far exceeded that of pure electric models. from january to august, phevs grew by 75.6% year-on-year, while pure electric vehicles grew by only 16% year-on-year.

and this gap is still widening. the sales data for august showed that phev sales increased by 96.9% year-on-year, while pure electric sales increased by only 18.5%.

in other words, the growth of pure electric vehicles in the current new energy market is gradually reaching a stage ceiling, and will be mainly supported by phevs in the future. from a policy perspective, the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, and the support policies for new energy vehicles will inevitably be gradually reduced in the future. the first to be excluded from the new energy policy is phev.

at this time, the extended-range vehicle is defined as an electric vehicle. in the future, the extended-range vehicle may continue to enjoy policy support like pure electric vehicles, which can be regarded as retaining the next growth pillar for new energy vehicles.

among phevs, extended-range is the first choice for mid-to-high-end models.

the best examples are ideal and wenjie. currently, the two are at the top of the new power sales list. both are mainly extended-range models, and both are positioned in the mid-to-high-end market with a price of more than 250,000 yuan. ideal was profitable last year, and seres, which produces wenjie, also made a net profit of 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of this year.

in addition, brands such as leapmotor and deepblue have performed much better in the market with their range-extended models than their pure electric counterparts.

this reflects several issues:

first of all, most conservative users who have switched from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles but are still skeptical about pure electric vehicles tend to accept extended-range vehicles as an option during this transition period. the base of this group of users is very large.

secondly, due to its "simple" structure, the extended-range vehicle eliminates the "difficulty" of the gearbox. pure electric vehicle companies, especially new energy vehicle companies, can more easily turn around and make extended-range vehicles, and it is easier to make profits.

at present, traditional car companies, because of their years of accumulation in internal combustion engines and gearboxes, prefer to go the plug-in hybrid route; while more and more new car companies are turning to extended-range models.

the avita 07, which will be launched at the end of the month and is avita's first extended-range model, remains popular. next year, deep blue will also launch an extended-range model with a larger battery. on the other hand, xiaopeng motors will also officially mass-produce extended-range models next year.

in total, nio is the only company in the automotive industry that is sticking to the pure electric route. other new forces have already launched or are about to launch extended-range products.

therefore, from the perspective of corporate survival, there is no choice but to do range extension.

in addition, under the premise that the pure electric route cannot catch up with chinese brands in a short period of time, joint venture automakers such as volkswagen, toyota, and general motors have now begun to make plug-in hybrid as their next key development goal.

in terms of competition, in the future, the competition between independent and joint venture vehicles will no longer be between fuel and electric vehicles. sooner or later, there will be a battle between extended-range vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

it is undeniable that the extended-range technology is not a new technology, but its existence is reasonable. the internal combustion engine technology has also gone through a hundred years, but no one has complained about it being an old technology in the past hundred years.

moreover, from the perspectives of policy, users and enterprises, there are motivations to promote extended-range electric vehicles at this stage. it is time to eliminate people’s misunderstandings about extended-range electric vehicles.