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on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released the price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities. the data showed thatamong the 70 cities that month, only jilin saw a slight increase of 0.1% in second-hand housing sales prices month-on-month, while the other 69 cities all saw a decline, including beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen.

it is worth noting thatin terms of year-on-year growth, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in guangzhou and shenzhen have fallen by more than 10%, a larger drop than in most second- and third-tier cities.

data from the national bureau of statistics shows that in august this year, the sales price of second-hand residential properties in guangzhou fell by 12.5% ​​year-on-year. photo by qiu yongfen, a reporter from nandu.com

over 10%! the decline in housing prices in guangzhou and shenzhen is greater than in most second- and third-tier cities

in august 2024,the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and shanghai rose by 0.6%. the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month respectively, and the decline widened by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

in terms of second-hand housing, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, of which beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. the sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.

in terms of year-on-year growth, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year, the same as last month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 3.6%, 10.1% and 8.2% respectively, and shanghai rose by 4.9%. the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 5.3% and 6.2% year-on-year respectively, and the decline widened by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from last month.

in terms of second-hand housing, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 9.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, of which beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 8.5%, 5.8%, 12.5% ​​and 10.8% respectively. the sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 8.6% and 8.5% year-on-year respectively, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

from the comparison, it can be seen thatthe year-on-year decline in sales prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities was greater than that in second- and third-tier cities. in particular, guangzhou and shenzhen both saw year-on-year declines of more than 10% in august, much higher than in most second- and third-tier cities.

"the biggest problem in the second-hand housing market has been exposed, that is, there are relatively few 'buyers'."vice president of shanghai e-house real estate research instituteyan yuejinpoints out that second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have also seen a significant decline.the subsequent second-hand housing market urgently needs a new development model, especially to increase potential housing demand, intensify the demolition and reconstruction of second-hand houses, improve the non-residential use of second-hand houses, etc. "only in this way can we truly boost the second-hand housing transaction market."

industry forecast: is the market expected to partially recover in the golden september and silver october?

"the overall supply of new homes is actually decreasing, but due to the wait-and-see attitude of homebuyers, market demand is still not strong enough to boost," said the director of 58 anjuke research institute.zhang bothe analysis pointed out that the downward trend of housing prices expanded in august. compared with new houses, second-hand houses had a clear advantage in terms of price-to-volume ratio and performed better in terms of transaction volume.

however, zhang bo believes that although the current real estate market is facing certain downward pressure, with the adjustment of policies and the gradual improvement of market mechanisms, the market is expected to gradually recover. in particular, cities with a good economic foundation and a large influx of population still have great development potential in their real estate markets. at the same time, in order to stabilize the real estate market, local governments may introduce more policy measures during the "golden september and silver october" period, such as housing subsidies, tax reductions, etc., to stimulate housing demand. the introduction of these policies will help to enhance buyers' willingness to buy, thereby promoting sales growth.

chief analyst, centaline property agencyzhang daweianalysts believe that due to weather reasons, the market is at a low point in august every year, and 2024 is no exception. in august, the overall real estate market sales were hindered, and "price for volume" became a common means of destocking. the sales decline of key real estate companies is still large, and the market is still in a deep adjustment process.

"the impact of previous policies has gradually weakened, and overall homebuyers' confidence is still insufficient. in the future, the trend of the real estate market still needs further observation." however, zhang dawei said that in september, the traditional marketing peak season, the intensity of launching and marketing in hot cities has increased, and the overall transaction volume in september is expected to rise. for the future market forecast, the market is expected to recover partially in the golden september and silver october.

source: southern metropolis daily (nddaily), n video report