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as the real estate market policies continue to release their effects, the price of new houses has continued to narrow for three consecutive months since may this year, and the national new house market has continued to improve. on september 14, 2024, the national bureau of statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august 2024, showing that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities in august fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. industry insiders analyzed that the market is entering the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", and the activity of the new house market in core cities may pick up slightly.

the month-on-month decline in new home prices narrowed by 0.2 percentage points

on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august 2024, showing that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month in august, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

guo yi, chief analyst of heshuo institution, said that the new home market is currently in a sideways trend. from the perspective of new home transactions and prices, they are still declining, but the overall decline has stabilized. the main reason is that the new home market has corresponding developers to back it up, because from the industry's perspective, there will be a bottom consensus on the price of new homes. at the same time, developers are also constrained by costs, so they will not sell their properties at a significant price reduction like second-hand home owners.

from the perspective of the new commercial housing price index of 70 cities in august 2024, the number of cities with a month-on-month increase was 2, and 1 city remained unchanged; the remaining 67 cities saw a month-on-month decline, an increase of 1 city from the previous month, and the number of cities with a decline accounted for about 96%. the average month-on-month decline of 70 cities in august was -0.73%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous month.

regarding the fact that the overall month-on-month decline in new home prices in august reached the lowest level in recent years, guan rongxue, senior analyst at the linping residential big data research institute, analyzed that since august, many places have canceled new home price limits or relaxed controls on new home prices. some local government departments have also responded that real estate companies can independently determine the selling price of new homes. in the short term, with the current large inventory of new homes and certain pressure on the market to sell them, real estate companies will cut prices in a market-oriented manner, especially for projects with poor sales, in order to increase sales and recover funds.

yan yuejin, deputy director of the e-house research institute, said that overall, first-tier cities performed best, with the month-on-month decline narrowing for three consecutive months since may. this shows that first-tier cities played an important leading role in this round of property market recovery, and that cities with good population and urban fundamentals have a better recovery trend in the property market.

shanghai's monthly growth rate has increased for 27 consecutive months

according to the data released by the national bureau of statistics, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, while shanghai rose by 0.6%. the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, both of which were 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month.

guan rongxue said that from the city level, shanghai and nanjing were the only two cities to see a month-on-month increase in new home prices, up 0.6% and 0.3% month-on-month respectively. among them, shanghai's new home prices have continued to grow month-on-month since june 2022, and have risen month-on-month for 27 consecutive months. the long-term strong trend of shanghai's new home prices is closely related to its strong demand for home purchases and strong purchasing power, especially in the luxury home market, which has repeatedly seen "sunlight" improvement plates this year. nanjing may have been affected by favorable policies, lowering commercial loan and provident fund loan interest rates and relaxing settlement conditions, which has released space for home purchase demand, restored market confidence, and stopped falling and rebounded. in addition, xi'an's new home prices remained stable this month.

regarding the 27th consecutive month-on-month increase in shanghai, xie yifeng, president of the china real estate research institute, believes that as an international financial center, shanghai has a large number of new companies every year and more jobs than other cities. in addition, shanghai's economy has been growing relatively steadily, which is enough to attract people from outside to work and live in shanghai, and the supply and demand of the real estate market is relatively balanced. in addition, most of the real estate projects in shanghai are of relatively high quality, which also keeps the price of new houses in a stable range.

guo yi added that currently high-end housing contracts still account for the majority of the new housing market in shanghai. from last year to this year, high-end housing projects in shanghai with prices of 100,000 yuan/square meter and 200,000 yuan/square meter have seen a significant round of hot sales due to the inverted price gap. these luxury homes are reflected in the online signings in the market, which will bring about a structural price increase in the overall market.

the trend of "trading old for new" in the second-hand housing market is still

data released by the national bureau of statistics showed that in august, second-hand housing sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, with beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen falling by 1%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. second- and third-tier cities' second-hand housing sales prices fell by 1% and 0.9% month-on-month, respectively, a 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month.

guan rongxue said that from the second-hand housing price index in august 2024, there was only one city with a month-on-month increase, and the remaining 69 cities fell month-on-month, an increase of 2 from the previous month. the average month-on-month rate of 70 cities in august was -0.95%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous month. from the further increase in the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in august, combined with the overall month-on-month decline, the current second-hand housing prices are consistent with new housing, and both are at the bottom of the stage. however, from the perspective of second-hand housing transactions, the year-on-year performance is quite impressive, and the trend of "trading old for volume" in the second-hand housing market is still there.

in august, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell 9.4% year-on-year, a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month, with beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen falling 8.5%, 5.8%, 12.5% ​​and 10.8% respectively. second- and third-tier cities' second-hand housing prices fell 8.6% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, both 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month.

yan yuejin said that compared with the performance of the second-hand housing market in the previous two months, the data in august was slightly weak. this shows that in the off-season, coupled with factors such as high temperatures, the demand for housing is weak, and the landlords' actions of lowering prices and making concessions are quite obvious. one phenomenon that needs to be vigilant is that after the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, some second-hand housing transactions were good, but if the subsequent potential demand does not keep up, some second-hand housing transactions will also encounter pressure.

from the perspective of cities, only jilin city saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in august, with an increase of 0.1%. from the perspective of area, the second-hand housing sales prices in jilin in august increased month-on-month in all area segments, among which the largest month-on-month increase was in the large area segment of 144 square meters or more. guan rongxue believes that there seems to be room for market demand to be explored, but it is not ruled out that it is a short-term fluctuation caused by the impact of new listings. whether prices really have the momentum to rise still needs to be supported by more follow-up data.

talking about the future changes in the second-hand housing market, yan yuejin said that the biggest problem in the second-hand housing market has been exposed, that is, there are relatively few "buyers", which will lead to a more obvious supply and demand relationship. therefore, the second-hand housing market urgently needs a new development model, especially to increase potential housing demand, increase the original demolition and reconstruction of second-hand houses, and improve the non-residential use of second-hand houses. only in this way can the second-hand housing transaction market be truly boosted.

beijing business daily reporter wang yinhao and li han