answers and predictions to four questions about future industries
2024-09-14
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from theoretical research to policy practice, there are generally four questions about future industries, namely, what, why, how, and how to deal with future industries. the book "future industry transformation" has a profound insight into the cutting-edge development of global future industries, closely follows the practical exploration of the country and local governments in promoting future industries, and comprehensively solves and predicts the four questions of future industries.
good book appreciation
liu yong
"future industries" has become a hot word that appears frequently, and it is also the focus of planning the economic growth and development of new productivity during the "15th five-year plan" from the central government to local governments. from theoretical research to policy practice, there are generally four questions about future industries, namely, what, why, how, and how to deal with future industries. the book "future industry transformation" has a deep insight into the cutting-edge trends of the development of future industries around the world, closely follows the practical exploration of the country and local governments in promoting future industries, and comprehensively solves and predicts the four questions about future industries.
what is the future industry? this is the first question that needs to be answered when studying the future industry. it is also a question that is constantly deepening understanding and is open to different opinions. "future industry transformation" uses the metaphor of seeds and forests to describe the future industry, proposing that the future industry starts from a seed and eventually grows into a forest. the future industry naturally has the characteristics of "new", "small" and "strong". the so-called "new" means that the future industry is a lone brave man walking in the unmanned area of scientific and technological innovation, and needs to break out a new track for industrial development; the so-called "small" means that the future industry is still in the embryonic stage of industrial incubation and cultivation, and there are more inconspicuous "little things"; the so-called "strong" means that the future industry has great potential to be cultivated into a strategic emerging industry or even an emerging pillar industry, and is a transformative force for creating new advantages in medium- and long-term industrial competition. unlike other industries, the cultivation of future industries has a long cycle, high investment, high risk and great potential. there is even a vivid saying in some fields, "10 years of incubation, 1 billion investment, 10% success rate, and 10th power growth space". from the demand side, future industries should aim to meet the new needs of people for a better life and high-quality development, and achieve a higher level of dynamic balance in which new demands drive supply and new supply creates demand. "future industrial transformation" proposes that cultivating future industries requires strategic prediction and more strategic patience, calling on more people to adhere to long-termism and become "seedling growers" of future industries.
why future industries? from a global perspective, cultivating future industries is a strategic battleground for the most intense global competition in the current and future period. developing future industries is a strategic first move to create new advantages in global competition and seize the commanding heights of international competition. from a domestic perspective, cultivating future industries is becoming a key area for accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries from the central government to local governments. developing future industries is the key to creating new engines for economic growth and building a modern industrial system. "future industry transformation" understands today from the day before yesterday and yesterday, and imagines tomorrow and the day after tomorrow from today. based on the process of the global industrial revolution, it proposes that each era has its own future industry, and the development of future industries has profoundly changed the country's comprehensive strength and international competition pattern. entering the 21st century, in order to seize the leading position of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, developed countries have successively introduced and implemented future industry strategic planning, laws and regulations, and investment plans, and actively laid out future industries that may explode in the next 5, 10 or even 20 years. based on the historical lessons of my country's past failure to make progress in future industries, future industrial transformation proposes that in the face of increasingly fierce global competition in future industries, if we do not advance, we will retreat, and if we advance slowly, we will also retreat. only by forward-looking layout of future industries can we seize the initiative in future competition. at the same time, future industrial transformation further proposes the development path of future industries, namely, "creating something out of nothing" to promote the transformation of cutting-edge technologies into future industries, and "cultivating new things out of existing ones" to promote the re-innovation of traditional industries to form new products, new formats, and new models.
how about future industries? there are many pioneers in cultivating future industries. shenzhen is the first city in the country to lay out future industries. as early as 2013, it issued and implemented the "shenzhen future industry development policy", laying out a number of future industries such as life and health industry, marine industry, and aerospace industry. after 10 years of cultivation and development, it has grown into a strategic emerging industry that is leading in china and advanced internationally. 10 years later, at the 2024 local two sessions, 26 provinces across the country actively deployed to cultivate future industries, mainly focusing on six major areas such as future information, future manufacturing, future energy, future health, future space, and future materials. "future industry transformation" systematically sorted out the development priorities and development goals of future industries in various provinces in china, and summarized and refined the practical exploration of cultivating and developing future industries in various places, including industry selection, technology source, incubation and transformation, investment and financing models, talent guarantee and governance innovation for cultivating future industries, highlighting the characteristic models and replicable promotion practices of various places. it cannot be ignored that the layout of future industries in various places needs to avoid some emerging problems, such as some places have a tendency to be afraid of difficulties, some places are in a wait-and-see state, and some places have a tendency to gather together.
what should we do with future industries? cultivating future industries is not about focusing on the present and being busy with "sure things", but about not fearing the uncertainties of various technologies and markets, and describing the medium- and long-term modern industrial system, using innovative artillery to blast open new industrial tracks. the key to cultivating future industries is to work hard on innovating production tools and make major breakthroughs in material working machines, energy power machines, and information control machines. "future industrial transformation" summarizes and refines the significant advantages of my country's cultivation and development of future industries, such as the advantages of the new national system, the advantages of super-large-scale markets, the advantages of complete industrial supporting facilities, and the advantages of massive data resources and application scenarios. at the same time, it focuses on technology sourcing, incubation models, financial support, governance innovation, and other policy recommendations. in terms of technology source, the key is to innovate the handshake mechanism of "scientists + entrepreneurs + investors". we should not only do a good job in research on the source and basic problems of science and technology, explore the model of "national questions + expert answers + market marking", strengthen the multi-path exploration, cross-integration and disruptive technology source supply of cutting-edge technologies, but also explore the model of "enterprise questions + expert answers + market marking" around the practical problems faced by my country's economic and social development and people's livelihood improvement. in terms of incubation model, the key is to smooth the channel for the transformation of cutting-edge technology industries. we should not only explore the model of "government guidance + park platform + enterprise leadership" around "who will transform and incubate", and improve the transformation and incubation services of the whole chain, but also strengthen the construction of concept verification centers around "how to transform and incubate", promote the opening of application scenarios, and innovate the first order support policy. in terms of financial support, the key is to guide funds to invest in small and early hard technologies. it requires both "patient investment" of government funds and guiding various government industrial investment funds to support future industries with a certain proportion, and "confidence investment" of social capital, encouraging financial institutions to innovate financial products and services that adapt to the characteristics of future industries, and encouraging the development of angel funds and seed funds.
cultivating future industries is not only a proposition of development, but also a proposition of reform. it is necessary to innovate policy measures to adapt to the development of future industries, and not simply recite the "tightening curse". it is also necessary to ensure the orderliness and stability of future industrial development, set up traffic lights, and strengthen positive incentives in the development of future industries, establish and improve trial and error tolerance mechanisms, and vigorously create an innovative culture and development environment that encourages innovation, tolerates failure, and dares to take risks. the support policies for future industries cannot be "flooding with water and fertilizer". it requires precise drip irrigation, precise regulation of temperature, light, water, air and fertilizer. it is necessary to shift from directional transplanting to more emphasis on thickening the soil for development, from supporting large, strong and excellent to more emphasis on supporting small, new and young, from focusing on technology integration to more emphasis on strengthening original innovation, and from supporting money and land to more support for scenarios and markets.
(author’s unit: development research center of the state council)
