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author | cheng zhenbiao

editor | li guozheng

automobile consumption originally refers to people buying cars for their daily needs. as the times develop and society progresses, the meaning of automobile consumption has also changed greatly, with a lot of new content added.

for example, the rise of online ride-hailing. in the past, the ownership and use rights of private cars were unified, but now they are separated for online ride-hailing, that is, the ownership belongs to the operator of the online ride-hailing (company or individual), while the use rights belong to the payer (individual or collective) for the travel service.

if shared cars such as online car-hailing services become more popular and promoted, and their application scale and share continue to expand, people's travel will become more and more convenient, which will help control the total number of cars. this is a very obvious and important change in the automobile consumer market and the automobile industry. moreover, with the development of shared cars, many automobile manufacturers have seen huge business opportunities in it and have transformed themselves into technology companies that not only design and manufacture cars but also provide travel services.

▲cheng zhenbiao

looking at the global automobile consumption market, significant changes have quietly taken place. in countries and regions with high automobile penetration, automobile consumption is mainly based on renewal, and the total number of vehicles in use is slowly declining.

in major automobile powers, although the automobile industry still plays an important role as a pillar of the national economy, due to the continuous emergence of new technologies and new business models, related technology giants have emerged, and the annual output value or market value they create is astonishingly high, some of which are as high as trillions of us dollars.

once upon a time, among the world's top 500 companies, global auto giants always occupied several of the top 10 positions. but now, the top 10 of this list are mostly dominated by newly emerging technology companies such as apple and tesla. this development trend is worthy of our attention. the automotive industry should conduct in-depth research on the direction of its future efforts, otherwise it may lag behind the times.

in general, automobile consumption is a major industry that attracts the attention of all people. it is a major event not only in china but also in the world. so, how can china take its own road to automobile popularization? the author believes that the total number of cars in china should be 400 million, and the reasonable value is 350 million - on this basis, china will build its own automobile technology giant.

negative impact cannot be underestimated

cars, like anything else, have two sides: good and positive aspects, but also negative and negative effects caused by excessive and improper use. my country cannot ignore these issues and cannot allow them to ferment without restraint.

first, the utilization rate of private cars is low and the social benefits are poor.

as a means of transportation, private cars have a very low utilization rate and are mostly idle. as mentioned above, a private car usually weighs more than one ton and is mainly composed of tens of thousands of parts made of various metals and chemical materials. manufacturing cars requires a large amount of social resources, the manufacturing process is complex and delicate, and the total social cost is very high. however, if the cars are basically idle after being manufactured, it is a huge waste.

as for private cars as a means of transportation, even if they are started, there are often only one or two people riding in them, and the efficiency of the car itself is not fully utilized, which is also a waste.

these problems can be solved to a certain extent by developing online car-hailing, carpooling and other sharing methods. in this way, the total number of cars can be significantly reduced, and the user's demand for convenient and fast car use can be met. at present, network information technology is very developed and popular. people can book a car with their smartphones. they don't have to own a car to travel easily and quickly. moreover, for the whole society, this not only avoids the waste of resources, but also obtains huge benefits. why not do it?

▲image source: luobo kuaipao official website

second, there are too many cars on the market, and society needs huge investment in infrastructure.

in order to cope with the mass use and popularization of cars, society must provide sufficient infrastructure, such as building roads, parking spaces, etc. according to the experience of many developed countries in the development of automobile society, the construction speed of these infrastructures generally lags far behind the growth rate of the number of cars, resulting in road congestion and nowhere to park cars. many countries have once fallen into a vicious circle of few roads and many cars - road construction to clear the way - more cars and more congestion - more road construction and more congestion.

building infrastructure and resources such as raw materials are not a big deal and can be solved through international trade imports. the biggest problem is that it will inevitably occupy a huge amount of land - if the latter is not enough, then the country will be powerless.

third, countries with large automobile consumption are all large energy consumers and major contributors to environmental pollution.

looking around the world, the world's major automobile consumption countries (or regions), such as the united states, europe, japan, etc., are all energy-intensive areas, and automobiles are the largest energy consumers in those places. the same is true in my country, where automobile energy consumption accounts for about 70% of the country's total energy consumption. this undoubtedly means that automobiles bear a major responsibility for national energy security.

at the same time, to date, traditional cars use fossil energy, which has resulted in cars being the biggest contributor to environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in major car-consuming countries, and this is basically the case in my country as well.

in short, the large-scale consumption (use) of cars will have serious negative effects. only by controlling the number of cars can these negative effects be effectively reduced and eliminated. for china, it is urgent to save and frugal consumption of cars and use them rationally and efficiently.

the penetration rate should be in line with china's reality

as mentioned above, china cannot follow the old path of excessive automobile consumption in the united states. my country cannot learn from it, cannot afford it, and there is no need to learn from it.

around 2000, the chinese academy of engineering and the u.s. national academy of engineering jointly carried out a research project titled "development of chinese family cars". at that time, when predicting the future trend of popularization and application of family cars in china, an expert from the u.s. national academy of engineering pointed out that china's national conditions are very different from those of the united states, and china should not follow the old path of the united states, which is highly or even excessively motorized; china's total number of cars in the future should be at a level that is compatible with many boundary conditions such as energy supply, infrastructure conditions, land space, and the degree of environmental pollution control, or at a level that is basically balanced and coordinated with each other.

at that time, representatives of automobile companies including faw, dongfeng motor, and saic were very unhappy when they heard this, and believed that the expert was just like some american politicians, harboring great power chauvinism and hegemony ideas, only caring about enjoying the benefits of automobile civilization and hindering china's automobile development. everyone simply could not listen to the academic research opinions of ordinary american scholars.

in 2009, when my country surpassed japan and the united states to become the world's largest automobile market and the rapid growth in car ownership led to prominent social contradictions, the author suddenly realized that the kind reminder from the american expert nearly 10 years ago was realistic and sincere.

professor qian yi, an academician of the chinese academy of engineering, once said that considering the objective situation that china has a large population and a small land area, and that per capita resources are also few, the chinese cannot live like americans, including consuming cars like americans. the american consumption model is not suitable for china's national conditions.

in the fight against climate change, the us government often talks more but does less. why is this the case? a deeper investigation shows that, in addition to the overbearing nature of the us government, it is also related to the difficulty of the country's energy transformation, which is largely due to the difficulty of automobile transformation. almost everyone in the country owns a car, and each household has two cars. it is not easy to get them to give up something they are very accustomed to in a short period of time. in addition, the country has a huge stock of automobile assets, and the burden of transforming to new energy is very heavy.

▲some of cheng zhenbiao's works

in 2009, china's automobile production and sales ranked first in the world. around that time, many foreign automobile giants were extremely excited and excited when they saw such a huge market opportunity. some so-called authoritative economists also added fuel to the fire, providing so-called theoretical basis, claiming that the chinese market has huge development potential and unlimited prospects, and it is only just beginning.

a european economist said that based on the average number of cars per thousand people in his region, the maximum capacity of china's auto market in the future could reach 600 million. another american economist who won the nobel prize even said that based on the country's average number of cars per thousand people, china could have a maximum of 800 million or even 1 billion cars.

these predictions have sparked great controversy and heated discussions in china. after a long period of discussion and research, the industry has unanimously rejected the 800 million (not to mention 1 billion) and 600 million vehicles, but there are great differences of opinion on whether it should be 500 million, 400 million or 300 million (350 million) vehicles. including the author, some experts who have been tracking and studying the development of the domestic and foreign automobile industry for a long time tend to prefer the peak assumption of 300 million to 350 million vehicles, believing that this is a pragmatic view.

the most critical and core premise of this concept is not to compete with developed countries in terms of the number of cars owned per thousand people, but to start from china's national conditions, take into account the many advantages that late-developing countries in terms of private cars have, and draw lessons from the practices of advanced countries, with a reference value of car ownership per thousand people that is slightly higher than the global average.

huang zhengxia (the second director of dongfeng motor), zhang xiaoyu (former leader of china machinery industry federation), zhang xingye (former leader of china national automotive industry corporation) and other three veteran comrades have made great contributions to the development and growth of china's automobile industry. i was fortunate to have the opportunity to communicate and discuss with them face to face many times during their lifetime on the idea of ​​china's automobile penetration rate and total ownership peak.

in summary, all three of them agreed that:firstchina should not pursue the high average car ownership per thousand people as in developed countries. such a high level is unreasonable and inappropriate for china.second, taking into account that the automobile industry is a pillar industry in china, it is appropriate and reasonable for china's average private car penetration rate to be slightly higher than the world average;thirdbased on national conditions and various factors, the peak of china's total automobile volume should be less than 400 million, and 300 million to 350 million is more appropriate.

how did this peak of 350 million vehicles come about? it was calculated based on the above three basic viewpoints, according to my country's total population of about 1.4 billion, with about 4 people per household (taking the average of 3 and 5 people per household), and about one car per household, that is, 14 divided by 4 equals 3.5.

these academic research ideas have been proposed for more than a decade, during which the development of china's automobile market has changed from the early high speed to medium and low speed. in recent years, although relevant departments have introduced many measures to stimulate automobile consumption, very obvious high growth has not always appeared. the annual average growth rate of about 10% predicted by some experts in the next 10 years has not happened. it can be seen that the development of the automobile market has its own internal laws.

on the other hand, china’s boundary constraints on accommodating more cars are becoming increasingly prominent, and the contradiction between cars and social harmony is becoming increasingly prominent.

it is necessary to objectively and correctly judge the future development potential of the chinese automobile market, make macro development plans for various automobile companies, choose the direction of capital investment, and formulate relevant plans and policies for national macro-management departments.

in the past few years, my country's auto industry has seen irrational phenomena such as blind investment and capacity expansion, which has led to serious internal competition, price wars, and "brotherly fighting". all companies have been hurt, the industry generally has low profits or even losses, and more auto companies have "exploded". this will not only affect the development of the industry, but also harm the overall interests of the country. my country should remain vigilant and take precautions.