august housing price index of 70 cities released: new home prices weakened overall, with shanghai and nanjing rising month-on-month
2024-09-14
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on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released the changes in commercial housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august.
wang zhonghua, chief statistician of the urban department of the national bureau of statistics, explained: "in august, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of commercial housing in various cities fell month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline generally widened slightly. among them, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities narrowed month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline was the same as last month."
shanghai's new home market shows independent trend
august is traditionally a slow season for real estate sales, and real estate volumes and prices in various regions remain relatively sluggish.
statistics bureau data show that from a month-on-month perspective, in august, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and shanghai rose by 0.6%. the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month respectively, and the decline widened by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
in terms of year-on-year growth, in august, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 4.2% year-on-year, the same as the previous month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 3.6%, 10.1% and 8.2% respectively, and shanghai rose by 4.9%. the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 5.3% and 6.2% year-on-year respectively, and the decline widened by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
zhang dawei, chief analyst of centaline property, said: "august is the traditional off-season for the real estate market. due to weather reasons, the market is at its lowest point of the year in august every year, and 2024 is no exception. in august, the real estate market continued to operate at a low level, and the sales of key real estate companies still fell sharply. the market is still in a deep adjustment process. the impact of previous policies has gradually weakened, and overall, home buyers' confidence is still insufficient."
it is worth noting that in august, among the 70 cities, the new home price index rose by 0.6% and 0.3% month-on-month in two cities, namely shanghai and nanjing. among them, shanghai's housing prices took the lead in stabilizing and recovering, and have been on an upward trend since the beginning of this year. it is not only the only city among the first-tier cities where housing prices have risen month-on-month, but also the month-on-month increase in housing prices continues to lead the country, and has been ranked first in the country for 6 consecutive months. compared with the same period last year, shanghai's housing prices have risen for 70 consecutive months, breaking out of an independent trend nationwide. the nanjing new home price index turned positive for the first time after falling month-on-month for 15 consecutive months.
yan yuejin, deputy director of the e-house research institute, commented: "shanghai has ranked first in house price growth for six consecutive months, which also shows that it has become a benchmark city for the current recovery of the real estate market. this has a lot to do with the strong potential demand for housing in shanghai. previously, shanghai's purchase restriction policy was strict and some demand was not released. the current loose housing purchase policy and the continued release of demand have a positive effect on explaining its relatively strong performance in this round of the real estate market. nanjing's house price index has been positive for the first time after 15 consecutive months of negative month-on-month growth. this shows that some provincial capital cities that have made sufficient adjustments may have the opportunity to turn the data positive, and also shows that a series of policies are positive and effective."
newly built commercial housing sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august 2024
the second-hand housing market continues to “trade price for volume”
in the second-hand housing market, 70 cities still show the characteristics of "trading price for volume".
according to the data from the national bureau of statistics, in august, the sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
at the same time, among the 70 major cities, except for jilin where the price increased by 0.1% month-on-month, the prices of second-hand houses in other cities all showed a downward trend month-on-month.
in terms of year-on-year growth, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 9.4% in august, a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month. beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 8.5%, 5.8%, 12.5% and 10.8% respectively. second- and third-tier cities' second-hand housing prices fell by 8.6% and 8.5% respectively, both 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month.
yan yuejin said: "from the number of cities where the housing price index rose month-on-month and year-on-year in august, the number of cities where housing prices fell increased, reaching 69. this shows that second-hand housing prices in various places continue to fall overall. the biggest problem in the second-hand housing market has been exposed, and there are relatively few "buyers". this will lead to a more obvious supply and demand relationship. therefore, judging from the fact that second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have also fallen significantly this time, the second-hand housing market urgently needs a new development model in the future, especially to increase potential housing demand and increase the "original demolition and reconstruction" work of second-hand housing. only in this way can the second-hand housing transaction market be truly boosted."
in terms of transaction volume, zhang dawei pointed out: "from the current perspective, the 'may 17 policy' mainly affected first-tier cities such as beijing and shanghai, especially the second-hand housing market in beijing and shanghai. the overall market stabilized in june and july, and the transaction volume in the last two months was the highest in the past year. however, as the impact of the policy weakened, the market transaction volume adjusted in august."
second-hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities in august 2024
industry: "golden september and silver october" property market is expected to partially recover
entering september, the traditional peak season for real estate marketing, "golden september and silver october" is coming. real estate developers will increase their efforts to launch new properties, and homebuyers will also accelerate their pace of entering the market. in this regard, zhang dawei predicted: "with the arrival of the traditional peak season in september, both the intensity of launching new properties and the intensity of marketing in hot cities will increase. the overall transaction volume in september is expected to rise, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses will also remain stable."
zhang bo, director of the 58 anjuke research institute, said: "real estate developers will continue to increase their efforts in september and october this year, launching more new properties and preferential activities to attract home buyers. this will not only help improve sales performance, but also help ease the financial pressure on real estate developers."
zhang bo further predicted: "in order to stabilize the real estate market, local governments may introduce more policy measures during this period, such as housing subsidies, tax reductions, etc., to stimulate housing demand. the introduction of these policies will help increase buyers' willingness to buy, thereby promoting sales growth."
photo by xu qian, a reporter from beijing news shell finance/screenshot of the national bureau of statistics official website
edited by yang juanjuan and proofread by zhao lin
