news

recession is not coming? americans are the richest they've ever been, thanks to real estate and stocks

2024-09-14

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

cailianshe news, september 14 (editor: huang junzhi)despite warnings of a u.s. recession, new data from the federal reserve shows that americans are now the richest they have ever been. arguably, they have never been richer.

according to the federal reserve's latest financial accounts of the united states report released on thursday,as of the end of the second quarter, americans' cumulative net worth was $163.8 trillion, up nearly 2% from $161 trillion in the first quarter.this is mainly due to continued price increases in the us housing market.

specifically, the report said that the increase was driven by a $1.8 trillion increase in real estate values ​​and a $700 billion increase in stock values. u.s. stocks hit a record high in june, as did the s&p/case-shiller home prices indices.

also, as net worth increased, household debt rose nearly 1% from the first quarter to $20.2 trillion, while holdings of cash and cash-like securities fell slightly to $18.44 trillion.

overall,the data paint a healthy financial picture of u.s. consumers who are flush with cash and holding a large number of appreciated assets.the american consumer is the strongest pillar of the us economy, which may be one of the reasons why the us economy has remained resilient even with the federal reserve's sharp interest rate hikes in the past two years and the warned recession has not actually come.

david rosenberg, a top u.s. economist and president of rosenberg research, said in a report last month that the strong spending data in july was likely boosted by a "wealth effect," or the feeling that when consumers see their net worth rise, they feel confident to spend more, and vice versa.

but at the same time, he has repeatedly warned that the possibility of the us economy falling into recession is increasing.

in the latest report, rosenberg compiled 20 recession indicators, 9 of which have been triggered. some of the recession signals that have flashed include sam's rule, the leading economic indicator index, and the inverted yield curve. recession indicators for the manufacturing and transportation industries have not yet been triggered, and these two industries remain solid.

“right now, 45% of the recession indicators we track have been triggered. and we’ve never had that happen without a recession since 1999,” he added.

on the other hand, american consumers are driven not only by growing net worth but also by rising wages.

data released earlier this week by the u.s. census bureau showed that median household income in the united states increased 4% to a record high of $80,610 in 2023. the sharp increase was the largest annual increase in inflation-adjusted income since 2019.

so, overall, things appear to be holding up well for the u.s. consumer based on the latest economic data.

(huang junzhi, cailianshe)
report/feedback