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——auto market hot questions and answers (issue 275)

he lun, director of the automotive research institute of netcom

recently, a video of lei jun, the head of xiaomi, went viral. he said, "after i entered the automotive industry, i felt that it was more complicated than the internet industry. we are going to use the culture of the internet industry to rectify the automotive industry. why are there so many perverse tendencies every day? so i sincerely invited many colleagues to attend our press conference. i think we should show solidarity. although our businesses are competitive, we should all rely on our own abilities, right?"

the problem is,what are the unhealthy trends in the automotive industry? where do these unhealthy trends come from?

q: what do you think the unhealthy tendencies that lei jun was talking about mean?

answer:judging from the words after "evil winds and evil forces", he seems to be referring to the increasingly fierce internal circulation, so he called for "unity". this reminds me of byd's loud call a year ago: "together is chinese cars." i have always disagreed with such calls, thinking that they are just superficial articles that avoid the essence of the problem and are useless (see "chinese cars, "together" is troublesome").

q: what do you think are the main unhealthy trends in the automotive industry?

answer:first of all, in order to gain a head start in the market and gain the favor of capital and relevant departments, some electric car brands launch new cars quickly without regard for quality, at any cost and by any means. they are willing to sell cars at a loss to seize the market. on the other hand, in order to lower costs, they also exploit suppliers and their own employees, resulting in the prevalence of cutting corners and further reducing the quality of new cars.

10 years ago i proposedautonomythe three steps of brand development are: quality first, design second, and technology thirdat the time, i thought that after all the hardships, domestic brands had finally passed the quality test, and the next step would be to focus on design (see "is china's automobile design "overtaking on a curve"? "design, the second step for domestic brands").

looking at the electric cars that keep popping up now, not to mention the general quality problems, even the fatal safety problems such as spontaneous combustion, mental retardation, brake failure, and broken axles have become so common that it is not surprising. it is not an exaggeration to say that the overall quality of domestic brand cars has declined. the mainstream media has mostly turned a deaf ear to this and remained silent. it is mainly the self-media and the victimized users who risked their lives to make trouble, while the focus of the relevant departments seems to be to help the manufacturers with problems solve the people who raised the problems.

think about the ford kuga "broken axle incident" 10 years ago. the mainstream media, product users, and relevant departments were united in their hatred of the enemy and brought the kuga to the ground, causing changan ford to never recover from it and making other manufacturers tremble with fear. times have really changed.

q: what is the main reason for this change?

answer:the main reason is that the internet's rapid iteration thinking has gone astray and has led the automobile manufacturing industry astray.

originally, the traditional car-making concept based on the spirit of craftsmanship was to create a basically perfect product, and then make minor improvements after it was launched, but major changes would have to wait for the next generation. however, the iterative thinking of the internet emphasizes speed, and it is not a big problem if the product is not perfect. after it is launched, it can be continuously modified, iterated quickly, and improved day by day through user participation.

in the digital world, this kind of thinking is dominant and not a big problem. however, in the automotive world, the internet iteration thinking has not been well integrated with the traditional craftsmanship required for car manufacturing. instead, it has overturned the latter and formed a perverse trend - it doesn't matter if a new car has many problems, ota upgrades are ok, but ota can only solve software problems, but not hardware problems. as a high-priced consumer product with the highest comprehensive requirements for safety, controllability, reliability, stability, and durability, the hardware standards of automobiles are far higher than those of general electronic and mechanical consumer products, so there is the term "car grade".

think about it 12 years ago, a report titled "volkswagen responds to dsg scandal: no need to recall, software upgrade will be ok" was quoted out of context, but volkswagen was criticized by the whole network for it. however, at least many people believed that it was not just the software upgrade that failed, but the hardware problem, and the gearbox had to be replaced. what about now? it's a different time again.

this unhealthy trend of "speed is everything" has deceived many consumers, making them confidently serve as guinea pigs for electric vehicles with great safety hazards, questionable performance, and superficial appearance, even at a loss. it may also have fooled and misled relevant departments, making them think that the problems with electric vehicles are not serious and that manufacturers can quickly solve them themselves by using new technologies of the internet age. such excessive demands are not conducive to the development of new energy vehicles and have resulted in the failure of relevant departments to take timely action to deal with related problems.

ask:among all the quality issues, the most harmful are the tram's high spontaneous combustion rate and extraordinary resistance to fire extinguishing.in march this year, academician ouyang minggao insisted in public that the spontaneous combustion rate of electric vehicles is lower than that of gasoline vehicles. later, faced with various doubts and the reality of frequent spontaneous combustion of electric vehicles, he neither changed his words nor insisted, but kept silent.

zeng yuqun, the head of catl, the world's largest power battery company, recently publicly admitted at the 2024 world power battery conference that the safety factor of most batteries on the market is far from enough. he called for: "i hope that the industry will put competition aside and put the vital interests of consumers, especially safety, first, and jointly improve safety standards and establish an absolute safety standard red line."

cancatl's share of the domestic power battery market reached 46% in the first half of the year. isn't he afraid of self-denial and self-destruction?

answer:on the issue of battery safety, no one's words carry more weight than zeng yuqun's. for an industry leader to admit that similar products, including his own, "are far from safe enough" does require great courage, huge business risks, and risks of political correctness. so why did he do that?

i think it is mainly because faced with the increasing number of tram spontaneous combustions that are difficult to control, and the various restrictions on tram parking that the public has spontaneously imposed as a result, more and more people have become unable to tolerate it, and more and more people who are deeply tied to the interests of the trams can no longer play dumb or remain deaf and dumb.many people have already anticipated that if the situation cannot be reversed quickly, a greater disaster will occur, causing new energy vehicles based on current mainstream battery technology to be completely abandoned. this will be a huge disaster on a cross-industry scale.

zeng yuqun probably feels that he has an unshirkable responsibility for this, so he took the initiative to stand up, face reality, and call for change. this is a wise move. he said: "if the (battery) safety issue is not resolved, the consequences will be catastrophic." as the largest vested interest in the electric vehicle industry, if his warning does not attract the attention of the entire industry and take action as soon as possible, then all stakeholders can only wish for the best.

as for the academician you just mentioned who claimed that the spontaneous combustion rate of electric vehicles is lower than that of gasoline vehicles, his original conclusion had a great influence, and it is worth listening to what he thinks about these issues now. in addition, it is also worth paying attention to what other industry insiders and relevant departments will think.

q: recently, the national standard "new energy vehicle operation safety performance inspection procedure" was released.，the focus is on annual inspections of the safety of the three-electric system unique to new energy vehicles, which will be officially implemented on march 1, 2025. but why can "batteries with far less safety factors" be widely promoted and become the mainstream power module in the auto market, with a stock of more than 25 million vehicles, what have the regulatory authorities been doing? why do they have to wait until the situation is almost out of control before they start to make up for the loss?

answer:i heard from a senior industry expert that 10 years ago he suggested to the regulatory authorities to add targeted annual inspection items for trams, but was rejected because they did not know how to do it. now, he and another expert believe that with the current level of testing equipment and technology, adding annual inspections will not have a good effect.

my understanding is that if the technical work that even the mainstream manufacturers themselves cannot handle can be handled by the vehicle annual inspection stations that are springing up everywhere, then it is a joke that manufacturers insist on supporting expensive r&d institutions and a large group of expensive r&d personnel.

the problem lies in the initial stage of tram development. there was a lack of a complete set of scientific and effective overall planning and regulatory framework. as a result, not only did things go astray, but they also went awry. this is far from a problem that can be solved by simply adding annual inspection items. instead, it requires a costly system engineering transformation, which is also a forced choice.

i once said that the development of trams is like a rally race. the extremely high prize money is enough to motivate the contestants to go through fire and water, but the organizers did not make a good overall plan, and the rules and supporting facilities were incomplete and seriously lagging behind. the racing cars were like a group of wild beasts out of a cage, running wildly and biting each other recklessly. the speed was very fast and they seemed to be far ahead, but in the end the car might be destroyed and people might die (see "safety and quality, the key shot to burst the tram bubble?" and "spontaneous combustion and self-mutilation of trams").

q: i feel that the unhealthy trend of "speed is everything" has also made many traditional car companies impetuous. i have test-driven some electric cars from joint ventures, and i feel that there are obviously more problems than gasoline cars. in addition, there are also cases of spontaneous combustion of joint venture electric cars.

answer:i had a similar experience when i test drove a joint venture electric car. the problem was not just with the car computer and intelligent driving, but also with the suspension. the test drive experience was poor. such a joint venture test drive car was unimaginable before. i feel that some traditional car companies, including some multinational giants, have seen their market share being rapidly eroded by the fierce electric car brands. under the influence of the "fast" word of the internet iteration thinking, they have lost their determination and forgotten the necessary craftsmanship. they will definitely pay a high price for this.

q: what should we do in the face of these serious problems?

answer:i have emphasized many times thatfirst of all, we must rely on the rule of lawin fact, it is a question of the formulation and implementation of the rules of the game, which is mainly the responsibility of the relevant departments.

in addition, the two experts mentioned above said that although it is difficult to promote the openness and transparency of tram fire accidents, it is very necessary. i have also emphasized the harm of blocking and censoring accident news (see "is china's automobile entering the "some" era?").

automakers themselves need to reflect deeply.

i remember that in 2010, when toyota was caught in a massive recall crisis due to safety and quality issues, akio toyoda pointed out after much reflection: "toyota has become a company that only cares about making money, considering sales and revenue as the primary considerations, but ignoring the car itself." he proposed that toyota should "return to the origin of entrepreneurship and reflect on the path of its own existence value", just like what kiichiro toyoda said to his son akio toyoda: "we must build a house that will not burn down even if it catches fire."

toyota's proposed solutions include improvements to the vehicle development process, including extending the testing time by four weeks, further reducing the use of virtual and computer-aided engineering design, making more use of prototypes and allowing consumers and independent engineers to evaluate vehicle models during the testing process, etc.

as a result, toyota, which no longer "regards sales and profits as the primary considerations", has not only retained the title of the world's number one car sales in most years since then, but has also become the multinational auto giant with the highest profit margin.

i think,if china's automobile industry wants to avoid or get out of the crisis, it must first solve the problem of car-making concepts that have been distorted by the iterative thinking of the internet.we must never forget that a car is essentially still a car. mobility, safety, reliability and durability are still its most important basic attributes. these basic attributes cannot be compromised or reduced due to the addition of electrification and intelligent technologies.

whether it is the so-called "mobile phone with four wheels" or the so-called "software determines the outcome", itsthe basic premise is still that the fundamental properties inherent in the car can be continuously improvedthis requires the industry to return to the traditional craftsman spirit and achieve a positive combination with the iterative thinking of the internet.using standard processes for automobile development and manufacturing based on the spirit of craftsmanship，combining new methods brought by internet iterative thinking, integrating new technologies of electrification and intelligence into automobiles。

(photo/text: he lun, netcom news agency)