the release of the latest ai function puts apple in crisis?
2024-09-13
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(the author of this article is wang yuquan, founding partner of haiyin capital)
at 1 a.m. on tuesday, apple released the new iphone 16 series. the hardware is lackluster, and apple intelligence is not as impressive as apple itself advertised.
some of my friends who are familiar with me may be wondering, aren't you always optimistic about apple? didn't you squeeze the toothpaste at apple's press conferences in the past? i don't think you were so disappointed?
the reason is simple. since the release of chatgpt3.5 on november 30, 2022, a vigorous digital revolution has begun. if ai technology was still in the performance tuning stage before, it has now moved to the stage of providing applications and services. at such a critical turning point, apple, which once led the smartphone revolution and now has a powerful enough hardware platform, is naturally expected to do so.
unfortunately, judging from the press conference, apple's ai functions are still mostly stuck in the original mobile phone framework. many of the functions it demonstrated, such as writing emails and editing text messages, summarizing information, and image recognition, are not impossible to achieve even without the support of the so-called apple intelligence.apple has not delivered satisfactory results in the field of ai, and it is difficult for it to lead a new round of "mobile intelligence" changes.
why can't apple surprise people as much as it did during the jobs era? let's analyze it briefly.
as we all know, apple has adopted a strategy called "pre-embedded technology" in its hardware layout, which means integrating advanced technology into the hardware in advance, but not rushing to show it to the public. after launching several generations of hardware products and having a sufficient user base, it will gradually guide developers to launch corresponding applications. this approach can ensure the number of users while maintaining the stability of the user experience. this strategy makes full use of apple's technological and ecological advantages, and has indeed brought great success to apple in the past.
in the past decade or so, apple has been adhering to the strategy of pre-embedded technology. this is understandable, and "small steps and fast progress" is also a strategic choice. the key lies in whether the changes in the external environment require the company to adjust its strategy to cope with them.
but now the key question is, under the wave of ai, the development of smart terminals, especially smart phones, is no longer an incremental improvement, but a subversive revolution.if apple continues to stick to its strategy of pre-embedded technology at this point, it may put itself in danger and even repeat nokia's mistakes.
because competitors, such as qualcomm and other direct competitors such as mobile phone manufacturers, may take more aggressive approaches to seize the high-end mobile phone market that apple has dominated for many years.
a more insidious threat may come from third-party ai platforms such as openai. once they create killer applications tailored for smart terminals, whoever supports them well will be able to quickly seize the market. by then, even if apple's hardware performance is powerful, it will inevitably become a wedding dress for ai platforms such as openai.
we believe that it is inevitable for apple to make such a conservative decision with a high probability of being wrong because they have fallen into the dilemma of "manager mode".
recently in silicon valley, the discussion about "founder mode" and "manager mode" has been very heated. a recent article by paul graham, co-founder of y combinator, "founder mode" is worthy of everyone's attention.
graham rejected the traditional perception of business that companies must turn to the traditional ceo management model after they expand. he advocated the founder model, which ensures that information flows smoothly and decisions are made quickly and effectively through skip-level meetings and cross-level communication. he mentioned that airbnb's co-founder and ceo borrowed jobs' business philosophy and strengthened direct management of the company, which significantly improved the company's performance and market position.
graham emphasized that the advantage of the founder model is that the founder can lead major decisions and changes with a deep understanding and foresight of the company, enabling the company to remain flexible and competitive in a rapidly changing market environment.
and these are exactly what apple currently lacks.it is obvious that because cook is not a founder but a manager, apple is still standing still in the face of technological revolution.
first, cook's steady and conservative personality made him a qualified successor to jobs, and he relied on the principle of keeping constant in the face of ever-changing situations to ensure that apple's advantages could continue. however, when technological changes came, it was also because of his personality that apple was still only satisfied with partial improvements, missed the opportunity, and fell into a passive position.
secondly, as a professional manager, cook has built a huge and efficient industrial ecosystem and management system based on the technology pre-embedded strategy, but this also makes it difficult for him to make changes. he has to make too many transformations and abandon too many sunk costs.
finally, the most crucial point, which graham did not mention, is that change often means risk. founders are often willing to take the risk of decision-making in pursuit of great success, but business owners would rather avoid risks and give up the future.
just like if apple were to take the lead in launching killer applications such as ai personal assistants, it would certainly continue to lead the smartphone industry, but it might also damage the user experience due to lack of sufficient hardware support, or be criticized for user privacy and data security due to the need to connect to third-party apps.
i think jobs would have given it a try to create the ai phone of the future, but cook would have hesitated because of the risks. even if he made a revolutionary decision, he would have been constrained by opposition within the company, and it would have been difficult for him to go his own way like jobs did.
in the current ai era, should apple actively embrace ai technology and open up cooperation, or remain unchanged in the face of ever-changing situations and remain complacent? it seems that apple has chosen the latter, which is more stable. but in the ai era, openness and cooperation are the keys to success. in particular, the advent of the ai revolution has given new platforms the opportunity to replace and surpass old platforms.if apple refuses to share its app ecosystem and hardware platform with other app developers, it will likely be surpassed by more open and flexible platforms.
(this article only represents the author’s personal views)
