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i was talking to a colleague recently about how the "golden september and silver october" seemed to have disappeared in an instant. the time had clearly arrived, but i didn't see any decent promotions from merchants, nor did i see any extra enthusiasm from people for consumption. it was just as dull as before.

if you say that consumers have no money in their pockets, that's not necessarily true. from january to august this year, passenger car sales exceeded 16 million, and it is still growing. if you say that merchants don't want to sell cars, that's even more ridiculous. the competition is so fierce now that people's heads are beaten into dog heads. in order to seek hot spots, a group of car company leaders over 60 years old have been forced to come out to live broadcast.

consumers have demands, and so do businesses. so why did the golden september and silver october disappear out of thin air? i would like to share with you some of my views.

(1) overdrawn enthusiasm: having pledged your loyalty to the country, it is difficult to pledge your loyalty to others

in tv dramas of the republic of china, there is often a scene like this: the national defense general cai e bids farewell to xiao fengxian, saying, "i have already pledged my seven-foot body to the country, and it is difficult for me to pledge my life to you." he is indeed going to the war, and it is difficult to be both loyal and love.

the current “golden september and silver october” is treated almost the same way. consumers’ enthusiasm has been “drained” by new forces. who has time to pay attention to the “golden september and silver october”?

take xiaopeng mona m03 as an example. this car was launched on the market at the end of august, and the number of orders reached 30,000 within 48 hours. now it is said that there are more than 2,000 new orders every day, and the total orders are not mentioned.

for example, will the more than 30,000 users of this car still go to the store to look at it? will they continue to contribute to the popularity? i am afraid that everyone's relationship with selling and buying cars is only to read the gossip in the car circle.

the situation is similar for other companies. lantu held a "double car launch" event at the chengdu auto show. as a result, lantu dreamer received over 14,000 pre-sale orders in 9 days, and lantu zhiyin received over 10,000 orders in less than 30 hours.

galaxy e5 also went on sale in august, and sold 12,227 units in less than a full month, keeping all the popularity in august, the "traditional off-season".

for the concept of "golden september and silver october", these new forces are a thorn in the eye. they do not play by the rules, will not wait until the auto show to launch new cars, and will not wait until september or october to launch their efforts.

it’s all about “racing against time”, because you have to race against time. if you are one month late, the market competition situation may be very different.

take the xiaopeng g6 as an example. when it was launched last year, it was an all-round hexagonal warrior with no blind spots and had no rivals in the 200,000 yuan level. if we look at this car with the same eyes this year, the conclusion will be very different. after all, there are too many cars to choose from at this price.

200,000 yuan can buy a car with huawei qiankun intelligent driving, such as deep blue s07; a car with a range of more than 700 kilometers, such as kia ev5; and a new energy hardcore suv that is not only a square box, but also can really travel through mountains and rivers, such as deep blue g318. even the formula baobao 5 has dropped to less than 250,000 yuan, which is really awesome.

as for various personalized small cars, they are too numerous to mention, and they are indeed much more talked about than traditional joint venture sedans and suvs. once these new forces take away the market's heat and traffic, the "golden september and silver october" will naturally exist in name only.

(2) test drives are becoming a thing of the past, and “online car viewing” is becoming the mainstream?

another important point is that in the past, people would shop around before making a decision. now, people often buy cars on impulse and then wait for the car.

i don’t know if you have this impression, in the past, buying a car meant looking at and testing each one before deciding which model to buy. there are even rules in 4s stores, such as recommending a test drive to every customer who looks at a car. although to be honest, you can’t tell anything from just driving around with a new car, but this “sense of ritual” is still very important.

this is why “golden september and silver october” is so popular. in september and october, we have just passed the mid-year inventory and it is still early to the end of the year. the mid-autumn festival and national day are together, so everyone has relatively ample time.

at that time, it often took several weekends to choose a car, after all, you had to try out all the target models.

nowadays, everyone is "looking at cars online". for example, xiaopeng mona m03 received more than 30,000 orders in 48 hours. could it be that so many people have completed the test drive in such a short time? it is unlikely.

most of the time, people are too lazy to try it. don’t be surprised by this. first, a test drive of more than 10 to 20 minutes really doesn’t reveal much. second, with the increasing development of self-media, there are all kinds of test drive videos flying around, some of which are tricky. many people think that they can understand the car well by watching the video.

of course, there are also reasons that vehicles are becoming more and more homogeneous, just like mobile phones, which used to have various forms such as flip-top and round-shaped ones, but now they are all unified with straight panels, and even the bangs are made the same. apart from looking at the parameters and configurations, people are not really willing to go to physical stores to try them out.

the configurations are pretty much the same now, so the meaning of "golden september and silver october" is not that great. not to mention that you could make a purchase by trialing the product before, and if you didn't pick the color, you could pick it up on the same day.

now it is common to wait for a month or two after buying a car, and some popular byd cars have a waiting time of more than 6 months. with this sales model, it is really difficult for the market to "heat up".

(3) are the good times for autobots over?

all signs indicate that this is definitely the golden age of the domestic automobile industry. in 2023, domestic passenger car sales will reach 26.063 million units, and there is a high probability that they will continue to grow this year.

the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 50%, and domestic cars have successively broken through the ceilings of 200,000, 300,000, 400,000 and 500,000.

but for car people, it seems that this is not a good time. we have written about the "rolling people" series in the car industry before, and everyone complained.

it has to be said that kung fu auto was also the one that was "rolled up". although it has been in this industry for many years, it has deeply felt that it is becoming more and more difficult to work in the industry. what is the problem? recently, kung fu auto found the answer while reading history.

when is the best period of a dynasty, most people assume that it is the heyday of the country. for example, the king of qin conquered the world, emperor wu of han wiped out the xiongnu, and zhu di completely defeated the northern yuan dynasty. in fact, for ordinary people, this may not be the case. because when the country is at its peak, it is often when land annexation is serious, and the lives of ordinary people have begun to go downhill.

in fact, for ordinary people, the best time is often the rising period, when conditions continue to improve and there is "hope".

looking back, for ordinary car people, it was probably from 2010 to 2020. domestic cars began to improve, so joint venture cars could not recklessly cut leeks. the overall competition intensity was not so great, and car prices were gradually falling, but most companies were "making money".

as for now, you can imagine the frustration of car people. when you wake up, a certain company may launch a new blockbuster product, and you have to think of a response plan quickly. this is really "staying prepared for war at all times", so can you sleep soundly?

(4) kung fu clap

the “golden september and silver october” has disappeared, simply because the new forces have turned the crazy promotions in september and october into “daily routine”. in addition, everyone has become accustomed to “online car viewing”, and even if the overall sales of cars are increasing, it is difficult to see major shopping malls “crowded”.

this is understandable, it is inevitable for development. once upon a time, various places often held "trade fairs", set up a stage to sell things, and people from all over the country went to support them. now even supermarkets in shopping malls can't hold on, and are closing down one after another.

but the era when life was "slow" is also far away from us.